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Gold - I'm calling the top
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Gold - I'm calling the top

  #51 (permalink)
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cpi65 View Post
But, at the end of the day, I don't have to waste any time defending my posts to punks like you. My hypothesis remains that Gold is in the final mania stage of this bubble, which the recent action corroborates, and soon enough it will come crashing down. As before, this could be at $2,000 or $5,000.

Keep reading, you might learn something.

You can't call a top in gold and then once you miss your prediction say that the range for your prediction could be as high $5000. You essentially give yourself an unlimited top. Gold may come down soon or it may not but reality is you were wrong in your top prediction. If you had actually traded your convictions you might very well be wiped out by now as Gold has continued to rise. Trading in the real world you can't give yourself that kind of range without blowing your account.

Very difficult to predict tops especially in a market that is on fire. I agree with others just admit you were wrong and move on. You are not the first guy who was wrong about a top just be glad you did not risk any money. Trading live it is important to learn to admit when you were wrong. Hanging on in a live trade unwilling to admit you are wrong will destroy your account eventually. I am wrong all the time which is why I have stops but my system is right more than it is wrong and I have my ratios setup so I can be wrong and still make money.

Being wrong is very much a apart of trading. It is what you do when you are wrong that can determine the difference between failure and success.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."

Last edited by liquidcci; August 22nd, 2011 at 11:48 AM.
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  #52 (permalink)
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If you had followed this thread to the letter you would have more than recovered your loss from the first failed short with the profits from then reversing and taking profits at the new (at the time) highs.

Bloody hell, why don't you guys read the bloody thread properly?! I have NEVER said "Sell it here, it will never go higher".

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  #53 (permalink)
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Ok, I think I understand the confusion. I was confused because I have a different definition of what "I'm calling the top" means. If I said "I'm calling the top" I would mean - "this is the top". Now I understand that when you say "I'm calling the top", you mean "at some unknown time in the future, this market will go down".

Its a simply misunderstanding involving semantics - my apologies.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #54 (permalink)
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@cpi65 - please understand that we're just heckling you for fun - we've all been there - its your choice whether to take it personally or not but I, at least, am just taking the piss out of you and am not trying to insult. (I think that's the proper use of a british saying?)

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  #55 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
@cpi65 - please understand that we're just heckling you for fun - we've all been there - its your choice whether to take it personally or not but I, at least, am just taking the piss out of you and am not trying to insult. (I think that's the proper use of a british saying?)

cpi I agree. I have been wrong so many times when I try to predict. Please don't take it as a personal attack. I admit I did not read entire thread and hate it when people don't read an entire thread that I started and misconstrue what I say. I was going off your thread title which is very absolute. But please accept my apologies for not reading entire thread.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #56 (permalink)
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Surly View Post
Ok, I think I understand the confusion. I was confused because I have a different definition of what "I'm calling the top" means. If I said "I'm calling the top" I would mean - "this is the top". Now I understand that when you say "I'm calling the top", you mean "at some unknown time in the future, this market will go down".

Its a simply misunderstanding involving semantics - my apologies.

In the very beginning of the thread, I said "If Gold prints above todays high, that does not invalidate my reasoning". That should have made it pretty clear that I did not rule out the possibility that it still could press higher in this mania phase before collapsing. Perhaps you should have read the thread properly before jumping on the badwagon.

Look, the first opportunity I highlighted to short it failed, I recongised that when it happened, and even said I thought new highs were more likely than new lows - before either had happened. I have no problems acknowledging that the first attempt proved incorrect - I did do so at the time.

I take exception to being lambasted for something that is taken totally out of context by people who either failed to read or didn't understand the ethos of the thread.

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  #57 (permalink)
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cpi65 View Post
The reason I'm not trading it is because I don't know the foggiest about the Gold market. I try to avoid trading on instruments that I don't understand.

And look, if you read the thread properly, what I actually say is that it can take several goes at trading price action like this, and that you should demand high trade performance. I then said that if a H&S / swing change developed (which it did), stops should be kept very tight. I then went on to say that the orthadox trade trigger was underperforming, the price action looked like it was setting up for a press to new highs, and that I was bullish from there ( "it's a good short, but not yet"). That was at about the $1750 mark.

But, at the end of the day, I don't have to waste any time defending my posts to punks like you. My hypothesis remains that Gold is in the final mania stage of this bubble, which the recent action corroborates, and soon enough it will come crashing down. As before, this could be at $2,000 or $5,000.

Keep reading, you might learn something.

You had to have figured you would get some flack for calling a top.
I didn't give you flack however, I questioned why you weren't trading it.
Anyone can call a top and eventually they will be right.

You're correct, I didn't read your post in its entirety.
The title of the thread seemed to be the cliff notes to me.

No hard feelings, mate. Internet threads discussing tops and bottoms shouldn't be too serious.
Take it easy.

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  #58 (permalink)
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Massive l View Post
You had to have figured you would get some flack for calling a top.
I didn't give you flack however, I questioned why you weren't trading it.
Anyone can call a top and eventually they will be right.

You're correct, I didn't read your post in its entirety.
The title of the thread seemed to be the cliff notes to me.

No hard feelings, mate. Internet threads discussing tops and bottoms shouldn't be too serious.
Take it easy.

I don't have any problem with you questioning why I wasn't trading it. I mentioned in another (unrelated) discussion on this thread about why I discard all fundamental analysis, and my view on trading Gold is along the same lines - I'm not going to trade it because I am not conviced that I know enough about the market or have enough experience trading it to have an edge. This thread is merely about my observations of bubbles and orthadox vs. unorthadox price action that I have picked up over the years.

My (albeit terse) reply was to the "100 point drawdown" comment, which in all fairness is not borne out by reading the thread in full. Actually, someone did ask me..


DavidHP View Post
How much above the called 'Top' does it need to go for failure?

Today may test your premiss.

(Just glad I'm not short too)

to which my response was


cpi65 View Post
When I think the action is no longer that of a "mania" phase, I'll say so in this thread. That could be $2,000 or $5,000.

which was made when Gold was still trading under the $1820-ish high that had been set at the time.

As for the title, of course I gave it an audacious title in order to draw attention to itself, but I had hoped to make it clear very early on that the thread was more about trading unorthadox price action and the action at the end of a bubble rather than a dollar high in the yellow metal itself.

The title may have misled some, but the content surely does not. For the particular "punk" comment, I apologise.

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  #59 (permalink)
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cpi65 - I apologize, as I guess I hit a nerve. For the record, I did read the entire thread - I read it when you first posted and followed it as gold hit 1900. I do think, though, that if you post a thread stating "I'm calling a top" on a public forum, you have to expect a bit of heckling when it goes 1000 ticks higher. Just sayin...

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  #60 (permalink)
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I believe a telltale sign of a top in gold will come in when either (a) nominally bullish news for gold hits the tape and it closes down hard or (b) it closes down hard with no news hitting the tape ... and by "hard" I mean down 50+ bucks an ounce. However, as others have noted, it's extremely difficult to call a top in a market that is showing bubble-like price action.

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