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Gold - I'm calling the top
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Gold - I'm calling the top

  #41 (permalink)
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cpi65 View Post
But Gold isn't in contango.

the relevence of the link I posted is that it could well be see as a precurser to something similar happening in Gold contracts, as the poster before me pointed out the size of money moving into it...

???


Contango - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Contango refers to the market condition wherein the price of a forward or futures contract is trading above the expected spot price at contract maturity. The resulting futures or forward curve would typically be upward sloping (i.e. "normal"), since contracts for further dates would typically trade at even higher prices. (The curves in question plot market prices for various contracts at different maturities—cf. term structure of interest rates)
A contango is normal for a non-perishable commodity that has a cost of carry. Such costs include warehousing fees and interest forgone on money tied up, less income from leasing out the commodity if possible (e.g. gold).[1] For perishable commodities, price differences between near and far delivery are not a contango. Different delivery dates are in effect entirely different commodities in this case, since fresh eggs today will not still be fresh in 6 months' time, 90-day treasury bills will have matured, etc."

As you can see here with current prices all the way out to 2017 and a price of over $2000.00 Barchart.com - Futures Prices for Gold

http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Growth-Concerns-Make-Gold-Jump-To-Fresh-Highs-MCX-Futures-Top-26800/3896556972

---Though in the short term , margin calls on index and equity related losses may force gold sales IMO

"Successful trading is one long journey, not a destination" Peter Borish Former Head of Research for Paul Tudor Jones speaking on conversations with John F. Carter

Last edited by GridKing; August 18th, 2011 at 03:43 PM.
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  #42 (permalink)
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Chavez Emptying Bank of England Vault as Venezuela Brings Back Gold Hoard - Bloomberg

Chavez to nationalize Venezuelan gold industry | Reuters

Every moment I wake up I realize I know nothing, and then I smile...
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  #43 (permalink)
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Of course it is, apologies for the brain fart, I was looking at the forward curve.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Dec gold hit 1881? The last month has been crazy. We can be @ 2000 in a week and a 1/2 (I doubt it)... that happens I smell blow off top.

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  #45 (permalink)
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What's the point of calling a top if you're not going to trade it?

Hope that 100 points draw down didn't hurt too much.

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  #46 (permalink)
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Massive l View Post
What's the point of calling a top if you're not going to trade it?

Hope that 100 points draw down didn't hurt too much.


The reason I'm not trading it is because I don't know the foggiest about the Gold market. I try to avoid trading on instruments that I don't understand.

And look, if you read the thread properly, what I actually say is that it can take several goes at trading price action like this, and that you should demand high trade performance. I then said that if a H&S / swing change developed (which it did), stops should be kept very tight. I then went on to say that the orthadox trade trigger was underperforming, the price action looked like it was setting up for a press to new highs, and that I was bullish from there ( "it's a good short, but not yet"). That was at about the $1750 mark.

But, at the end of the day, I don't have to waste any time defending my posts to punks like you. My hypothesis remains that Gold is in the final mania stage of this bubble, which the recent action corroborates, and soon enough it will come crashing down. As before, this could be at $2,000 or $5,000.

Keep reading, you might learn something.

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  #47 (permalink)
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cpi65 View Post
The reason I'm not trading it is because I don't know the foggiest about the Gold market. I try to avoid trading on instruments that I don't understand.

And look, if you read the thread properly, what I actually say is that it can take several goes at trading price action like this, and that you should demand high trade performance. I then said that if a H&S / swing change developed (which it did), stops should be kept very tight. I then went on to say that the orthadox trade trigger was underperforming, the price action looked like it was setting up for a press to new highs, and that I was bullish from there ( "it's a good short, but not yet"). That was at about the $1750 mark.

But, at the end of the day, I don't have to waste any time defending my posts to punks like you. My hypothesis remains that Gold is in the final mania stage of this bubble, which the recent action corroborates, and soon enough it will come crashing down. As before, this could be at $2,000 or $5,000.

Keep reading, you might learn something.

Yes, I'm quite sure many have learned not to call tops in an instrument gone parabolic...

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  #48 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
Yes, I'm quite sure many have learned not to call tops in an instrument gone parabolic...

While many others have made a packet doing so... parabolic tops are the best kind.

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  #49 (permalink)
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cpi65 View Post
But, at the end of the day, I don't have to waste any time defending my posts to punks like you. My hypothesis remains that Gold is in the final mania stage of this bubble, which the recent action corroborates, and soon enough it will come crashing down. As before, this could be at $2,000 or $5,000.

Dude, you can't start calling people "punks" when you call a top in gold and then qualify it by saying that it could rally another 200 points and then further qualify it by saying it could rally another 3000 points. That's not "calling a top", that's merely predicting markets exist. You're the one who asked us to ridicule you when you titled the original post - you made a prediction, and you were wrong. The honorable thing to do is admit it and move on...

Of course digging a deeper hole is always an option.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #50 (permalink)
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In the beginning of this thread I said:

"And, basically, that is it. If Gold prints above todays high, that does not invalidate my reasoning. I believe we are in the final stages of the bubble, and I would look to be aggressive (If it doesn't go into profit immediately, close it. tight stops. Have more than one go if you need to) selling short gold when my particular strategy gave me signals.".

The "punk" reference was specifically because prior to that comment I did in fact say that "With that in mind [poor action after a break lower], I expect Gold to go Higher before it goes lower. In addition, the action on the daily chart looks like a textbook spoof - downside break of a bearish engulphing setup, before trapping new shorts and pressing higher for more position liquidation." - which is exactly what happened.

So I have said what my hypothesis is (and why), highlighted a possible opportunity to short and gave a guideline for trading it, and updated the commentary with a follow up post explaining that I was short term bullish. I did not say that Gold would never ever go higher again, and did specifically say that "it may take more than one go" to trade it.

If you want "Gold will never go higher than $XXXX, sell here stop here target here", go elsewhere, that is not what this thread is about. I thought I made that clear from the outset.

The more Gold trades like this the more confident I become.

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