Ok this is something I'm going to start tomorrow morning July 18 2011.
I'm using a 5 minute chart with a 12 simple ma on it, and it just happens to be "Feltons MA" which is not special in any way except for the fact that it changes colors. This chart is for direction and over all trend.
I'm using a 150 tick chart with the MACD and a "Feltons momentum indicator and 34 MA set to EMA".
I've noticed, (and I know this is no shock to anyone) that prices move away from moving averages and back to them. They do this over and over again. Move away, come back to, over and over again. So based on that I'm using the 150 tick chart this way.
1. Feltons's momentum indicator has to of just turned either blue for longs, or red for shorts.
2. The MACD must be above the zero line, and making a HH, or LL in the case for shorts.
3. My stop is 25 ticks, and I either win or lose.
4. If prices go against me and I'm not stoped out, when they get back to entry price I get out.
5. I'll expect prices to carry further down or up when the MACD is above or below it's zero line.
6. I will make three trades a day, with a target of 20 ticks on the CL.
So their are pictures below that explain a little more.
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No I've not back tested it, and I mean I'm just paper trading, not live! But today was the first day I've tried this.
(see first picture
So today worked out. Their where six trades. The first trade I went long when the momentum indicator turned blue as that is my signal. Normally I want the MACD above the zero for longs, but that is not the case in gaps, so I traded this, and the exectuion was correct, as far as what my rules are. I'd of liked to had it go at least two too three points above the 34 ema on the 150 tick chart, but tha twas not the case, it was a lose.
(see second picture)
Trade two was a short, I executed it correctly and made on it 26 ticks.
(see third picture)
Trade three was a short and it was the second signal from the MACD and I made 13 ticks.
I could of stoped here for the day and making the first three trade and then stoping is something I think is as just as good as trading all day long. Also after third trade their was a "LL" made on the MACD and I should of taking this trade, and that would of been profitable as well. But I just missed it.
(see fourth picture)
Trade four was a lost and in the picture where the yellow arrow is, it looks like I missed the first turn of the MACD after crossing the zero line. But for me, what I have noticed is that if the MACD does not show you a good "histogram" short, when your wanting to go long, then it proable wont work out. It did go short for four bars and I took that trade, just did not work out. It was not a "huge histogram"short, but it could of worked.
(see fifth picture)
The fifth trade was a short and it was good for 8 ticks
(see sixth picture, on new page)
Now in the picture it looks like I was about to get stoped out, for a total loss on the day which would of been 28 ticks, or -280. But as is my rules are all in all out, it did turn around and come back my way, which I was pleasantly surprised about for 22 ticks.
So six trades, and after commissions of 4.50 a contract I made 183 dollars
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Yes i did factor in slippage. In my experience my slippage using NT7 paper trader has always been accurate to when I traded live. I thought it would be worse the first time I traded. But I was surprised that my slippage in paper trading pretty much carried over to the real thing. That was a nice surprise
Well had I acutally followed the rules I've set to use, I'd done just fine today. But I got in their with my little thinker and started thinking about where "price" might go. So here it is.
I exectued it perfectly. I'd liked to of gotten in on that first candle buy it ticked through it quickly, and I got a bad fill. At some point I decided this was not going to work out, and exited the trade for a -13 ticks
As far as executing the trade it was good, but I should of still been in the first trade, waiting to either get stoped out, or take profit. It's a trade that should not of been -29 ticks
I executed the trade correctly and made 19 ticks
Their was no trade, nothing is their, screwed that up -23 ticks
Their was no trade, nothing is their, another screw up, made 3 ticks
Executed correctly. It is where the MACD crossed the zero line, and the momentum indicator turned "bright red" made 17 ticks
(Seventh and Eight Trade)
Wow, what a major just screw up. Entered short on the same candle twice, then I "tried" to let it run thinking if it did I'd make it all back and be up for the day, it eventually stoped me out for a loss of 25 ticks. And on the seventh trade I made 3 ticks for a total of
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