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Crude in 2011
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Crude in 2011

  #1 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Crude in 2011

A thread for light crude oil charts and related instruments.

Summary
Started to test swing trading and building a short pyramid.
Paper trade $20,000 initial capital.

--------
Learning lesson -31 Aug 2011: Trust your numbers. Don't use 15 min CCI for topping in CL stay with the 5 min. Once in a trade go for at least 63 cents unless you are sure you are wrong.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; August 31st, 2011 at 05:58 PM.
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The fun is in the numbers
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Trendline break could signal down move

It looks as if the crude light chart is setting up for a possible break of the up trend.

If it starts a downward move this could be the opportunity for a down pyramid for swing positions.
Crude has big swings so getting on board (and not getting stopped out) may be difficult and so a multiday position is better suited to accounts with enough cash to post a big wide stop.

At the beginning of a new move (if it does happen) expect sharp counter attacks until the move has been underway for a few weeks or about 1/3 retracement of the upleg leading into the peak.

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The fun is in the numbers
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Looking more closely at the data the high on which the 109 resistance was based was 108.80. The close today 108.94 or 0.14 above that.

Looking at an IB chart (see below) 107.96.

So a more cautious approach is to wait for a close below 107.50.

I am going to stay with the more aggressive short and go short tomorrow based on short term indicators (and intraday topping action against resistance), if that happens. Then if it closes towards the low, e.g. at less than 25% of the days range, then I will hold the short.

My real dollars account is very small so I can't realistic trade crude in it. (I might trade the HOD etf though).

However, for the pyramid exercise I am starting with $20,000. The idea is not to intraday trade the entire position, though at the beginning I may do that until- and IF - price close below the 107.96 by a margin, so say below 107.50.

(Nothing I post is a trade recommendation -this is a charting exercise.)

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The fun is in the numbers
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May 5, 2011

(all paper trades )

"Sold" 2 CL in o/n at 109.27.
Stop was 109.55 and o/n high was 109.38 => heat 0.11.

$20,000 - o/n initial margin $6,750 times 2 $13,500 = available $6500.
o/n maintenance $5,000
RTH initial= $3,375 and maintenance $2,500

Closed 1 of 2 shorts with MRK buy at 10:17CT at 102.37. Net position -1 @ 109.27
109.27-102.37=6.90 $1,000 = $6,900.

Cash balance $26,900
Less o/n maintenance on core position of -1 * $5,000= $21,900 available.

Looking to sell 3 if intraday high and close out one before closing of 15:00CT giving 3 contracts for core position.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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Crude in 2011-may5-11.jpg   Crude in 2011-may5-11a.jpg  
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The fun is in the numbers
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I didn't get back in in the day session.

o/n order to sell 2 at 105.27

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The fun is in the numbers
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In post #2 I had the target of 98.

We met that today!

I'll need to review the graph to see what's next but too tired right now.

Learning lesson from today was set the intraday but right away after the closing out of one of the 2 shorts.
It turned out there was a 50% retrace of the fall from 9:15am to the low where I took profits on one, however that was only 20minutes later.

So rapidfall - snapback retrace and fall again.

This has the hallmarks of a big downleg. If this turns out to be the case, then there may be important messages about longer term eco health.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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Friday, May 06, 2011

Initial Cash Balance $20,000
Cash balance $26,900
Net position -1 @ 109.27
----------

Today's action:

Set alert for 103
If it fails at 103.13 then looking to sell 2 at that level, with a stop at 131.41 for those 2.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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You trade from daily chart?

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The fun is in the numbers
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torroray View Post
You trade from daily chart?

For the initial position for this exercise - multiday swing and building a pyramid - I used the daily chart.
For the intraday ideas above, no I use a 5min chart and a 1 minute chart.

Because the drop was so surprisely fast I used a 60 min chart to get a scope of the move and try to find intraday points to sell against.

Over the next few days we might see 104.73 =50% retracement, but that is only in the back of my mind and I would fresh at each new days chart for a place to sell against.

I hope that helps.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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Crude in 2011-may6-11b.jpg   Crude in 2011-may6-11c.jpg  
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For intraday how big is your stop?

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