Crude in 2011 - Commodities Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Crude in 2011
Updated: Views / Replies:18,176 / 201
Created: by aquarian1 Attachments:107

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 107  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Crude in 2011

  #71 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Thursday June 23, 2011

Possible bounce targets are shown on the graph (97.82 or the less likely 98.67).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #72 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Video on Crude oil prices

25 June 2011.

This thread started before the big break in oil and call that break. In a rapid 3 day drop the CL June contract dropped
$ 20.20 from 114.83 (2 May) to 94.63 (5 May). Then crude bounced around and form a wedge. In the thread simple estimation techniques we used this wedge formation as an exercise and got a target of approximately $85. (See: estimating the measurement of the wedge forming in crude oil.)

This evening I watched the talking numbers video of 22 June Katie Stockton of MKM Charting Oil's Decline mentions an estimate of $84 dollars and "one of my model $85-87". These estimates would be for the cash contract and the futures price would be higher depending on the date target - so perhaps her estimate is equal to ours of $85.
- "it is below the 200d MA
-"intermediate conditions indicate oversold and you will probably see a buying opportunity"

She continues to mention a "loss of momentum" of gold because of the basing action in the DX.
Katie Stockton, MKM Partners
---------------------
(Always remember estimates are estimates. Also realize that the phrase "target of" does not equal final target for the move, just the next target.)

Katie

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #73 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Margin Requirements:
Intraday Initial Margin 4,388
Intraday Maintenance Margin 3,250
Overnight Initial Margin 8,775
Overnight Maintenance Margin 6,500

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #74 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Monday, June 27, 2011

Opening cash balance today $36,070
Change in Cash $ +240
Closing Cash Balance $36,310

BOT 1 @ 90.39
SLD 1 @ 90.63
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

---------------------



Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Opening cash balance today $36,310
Change in Cash $ 0
Closing Cash Balance $36,310

SLD 1 @ 92.64 @ 14:14

Open positions:
-1 @ 92.64

Close today 92.89
Open equity 0.25 * 1,000 = -$250


Net equity $36,060
Available $29,560
New initial on k available = 3

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).
(5min chart)

20 mins posting time

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; June 28th, 2011 at 06:09 PM. Reason: forgot yesterday trade
Reply With Quote
 
  #75 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Worried that CL will bounce tomorrow and have put in a buy at 92.05 to close my short in o/n GTC.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #76 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Opening cash balance today $36,310
Change in Cash +$ 840
Closing Cash Balance $37.150

BOT 1 @ 92.05
92.89-92.05=0.84*1,000= $840

Open positions: none

Notes: when as high as 95.84 - glad to be out.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #77 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

QE by Stealth?

So on the 24th the mainstream is calling 'short' to 85 Close = 91.24

"I will continue to be short oil until $85 - $80, then wait for a signal to enter long."
Tom Weber, Managing Director at PFGBest
=========================================================
aquarian1:
"Thursday June 23, 2011
Possible bounce targets are shown on the graph (97.82 or the less likely 98.67)." Close=92.35

"Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Worried that CL will bounce tomorrow and have put in a buy at 92.05 to close my short in o/n GTC.

"Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Open positions: none
Notes: when as high as 95.84 - glad to be out."

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Al Brooks says:
Prediction is impossible.

I say:
It depends on the skill of the predictor
--------===================================================
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

--------
24 June 2011
IEA's 'Quantitative Easing' Could Backfire (CNBC)



On Friday June 24, 2011, 9:18 am EDT
The International Energy Agency's decision to release 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves is a form of 'macroeconomic stimulus' that may backfire by actually sending prices higher in the medium term.
Worried about the anemic economic recovery in the developed world, the IEA release represents nearly 2.5 percent of global supply, with half the extra oil (New York Mercantile Exchange: CLCV1) coming from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve.



....
"Definitely a game changer," said Tom Weber, Managing Director at PFGBest of the IEA release. "I will continue to be short oil until $85 - $80, then wait for a signal to enter long."
Other traders also shared the view. Daryl Guppy, CEO of Guppytraders.com said the IEA move was "a one-off and does nothing to dent China demand. Look for retest of $100 and higher before end of 2011. Trade short, too soon to fade the downtrend."


QE by Stealth?
Greg Priddy, global oil analyst at Eurasia Group said the reasoning behind the decision "represents the use of strategic oil reserves as a means of macroeconomic stimulus."
Andre Julian, Chief Financial Officer at OpVest went further suggesting "perhaps President Obama used his authority to artificially push the price of crude down in the short-term because the Fed has used up the arrows in their quiver."
"With QE2 coming to an end, a very pessimistic view given by Bernanke on the pace of the recovery, and not much commitment to extend stimulus in the short-term one of the best ways to help the economy recover is to lower the price of oil by injecting supply into the market," he added.


Political Decision?
Dennis Gartman said the U.S. contribution to the reserve release was not insignificant and argued that it was done with one eye on ensuring President Obama's re-election in 2012 since U.S. consumers were still reeling from a surge in gasoline prices. "This was a political decision entirely, and nothing more," Gartman said.


The consensus view amongst traders and analysts was that the IEA release wasn't supported by the fundamentals of a well-supplied global oil market. "Yes, we have some Libya premium still in the market but we are not massively short of crude supply," said Tom James, Director & Co-Founder at Navitas Resources Pte Ltd.
"Understanding the move today was like trying to solve the Rubix Cube in the dark," said John J. Licata, CEO and Chief Commodity Strategist at Blue Phoenix Inc. "Adding so much oil to the marketplace when there is no rise in demand was troubling. At the end of the day this was a Fed-like move focused on pricing to help get the Europeans and the U.S. out of a jam (politically and economically). This was a wasted bullet that wasn't even used when crude oil was above $140 a barrel."
Jonathan Barratt at Commodity Broking Services agreed that there was no need for the extra oil since prices were "going down on its own accord." The reserve release was "an aggressive move to lower primary inputs to grow western economies faster...a dangerous game when eastern economies are trying to slow down," he added.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to aquarian1 for this post:
 
  #78 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Thursday, July 07, 2011

Order to sell 2 at 98.67

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #79 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Order to sell 1 at 99.38

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote
 
  #80 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,246 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,167 given, 1,760 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Thursday, July 07, 2011

SLD 2 at 98.67 @ 9:41
SLD 1 at 99.38 @ 9:57

Order to buy to close 1 of 3 at 98.01

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > Crude in 2011

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crude trade room trippenlatin Commodities Futures Trading 13 January 13th, 2015 05:27 PM
Drag Race! 2012 Nissan GT-R vs 2011 Chevy Corvette Z06 vs 2011 Shelby GT500 Big Mike Off-Topic 10 December 25th, 2011 06:10 PM
Crude margins are going up kbit News and Current Events 1 May 10th, 2011 12:30 AM
Crude symbol for TS incometrade Traders Hideout 3 September 15th, 2010 04:28 PM
BruteForce-Crude Oil Zoethecus Trading Journals 32 July 14th, 2010 01:16 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:14 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-17 in 0.14 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.82.81.154