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Crude in 2011
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Crude in 2011

  #41 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Friday May 20, 2011
Open Positions:
July CL
-1 @ 99.53
-1 @ 97.65
-1 @100.15
-3 @avg=99.11

Today's action: Closed 3 Julys
Bot 2 July @ 99.16 @ 7:21 CT
-1 @ 99.53 to 99.16 =+0.37 * 1,000 = $370
-1 @ 97.65 to 99.16 = -1.51 * 1,000 =-$1,510
Bot 1 July @ 98.87 @ 8:27 CT
-1 @100.15 to 98.87 = 1.28 * 1,000 = $1,280
Profit $140

Bot 3 at 96.97 @ 9:45

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  #42 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Today's action so far:
Closed 3 Julys
Bot 2 July @ 99.16 @ 7:21 CT
-1 @ 99.53 to 99.16 =+0.37 * 1,000 = $370
-1 @ 97.65 to 99.16 = -1.51 * 1,000 =-$1,510
Bot 1 July @ 98.87 @ 8:27 CT
-1 @100.15 to 98.87 = 1.28 * 1,000 = $1,280
Profit $140

Bot 3 at 96.97 @ 9:45
SLD 1 at 97.43 @ 10:05
Now plus 2
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  #43 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Comments:
Cl in a channel from 95.54 area to 101.42
I would like to sell at the top of the channel on a failure - orb of +-.37, so 101.79 to 101.05

As the channel has a triple bottom (95.18 4:30am 5/6, 95.78 7:30 5/12, 95.54 11:3 05/17) if it goes up to the 101 area and fails and starts down then the fourth test of the bottom of the channel should fail.

The safer course is to wait for channel failure and then sell.

I plan to take the risker course and sell some in the 101 area, close some if&when it goes to the channel bottom, and then if it pushes down through the channel bottom (by the orb or close of one day) giving confirmation - go heavy short.

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  #44 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Friday May 20, 2011

Initial Cash Balance at Start of 5 May=$20,000

Opening cash balance today $49,520
Change in Cash $ 2,870
Closing Cash Balance $52,390

Open positions = 0
Open orders = none

New trades today:
Bot 3 at 96.97 @ 9:45
SLD 1 at 97.43 @ 10:05 = +0.46
SLD 1 at 98.24 @ 10:42 = +1.27
SLD 1 at 97.97 @ 10:44 = +1.00
2.73 * 1,000 = +2,730
+140 (from earlier today)
Profit today $2,870

Notes: Though it could continue higher I only had a few hours sleep last night and need a nap.
I'll set an alarm for 101 area.

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  #45 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Sunday evening 8:28CT

I have been thinking about the following question:
"If I want to sell the maximum number of contracts, such that if the trade goes against me and I close them I can still sell contracts = total capital/ RHT initial, how many contracts is that?"

So if I feel it may top out at 101.42 with +-$0.37 ie 101.05 to 101.79, a range of $0.74 or $740 per contract, then I would add $740 to initial RTH of $3,375 = $4,115.
Total capital of $52,390 / $4,115 =12.73 or 12 contracts.

So the resulting strategy is
Sell 12 at topping action in between 101.05 to 101.79. (perhaps 6 at 101.05 and 6 at 101.42).
If it falls to target one (50%) = 98.48 then sell 3/8 of my contracts or 4.5 gives 5.
Selling 5 contracts at 98.48 from 101.05 = -2.57 for 5 =12.85 12.85/7=1.8357
I still would be holding 7 from 101.05. So 101.05+1.83=102.88 as the BE on the remaining 7.

Then at T2 (95.54) I could sell some of the 7 or if pressure is down hold them and add more as it confirms a push down through resistance (for example 95.54-0.3795.17 and no bottoming action on charts/ technicals).

If it hits 98.48 and bounces back up then I would hold to see if 101.05 turns the price back down, and sell if it pushes through by 0.37 or > 101.42. (I am assuming 101.05 was the high for this example). If stopped out on the 7 at 101.42 I still have 1.46 profit per each of the 7 (102.88-101.42).

===
The point of this is to have a core of short contracts (in this case 7) on which I reduce the risk by the day trade of optional (in this case the 5).

8:50CT 22 minutes

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  #46 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Sunday evening 23 May 2011, 9:05CT

I've entered part one of the line Sell 3 @ 100.87 with stop 101.87. (even though 101.05 is my lower edge of the sell area I decided to reduce it my a few pennies so that if it turns down in the o/n session I'll have something.)

9:11CT

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  #47 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Monday, May 23, 2011
8:52 CT

BOT 1 97.64 8:47 and SLD 97.64 8:53 =+.22 =$220

Oil is looking strong this morning having entered a low at 96.54 @ 8:05CT
If that holds then that will be the fourth low given a quadruple bottom.

For today:
If greater than 97.97 on 15 minute chart then buy.
If less than 96.54 on 15 minute chart then sell.
9:09CT 17 Min
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  #48 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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10:25CT
I'm short 12 on the break of the 96.54. Pretty rushed sale, and could have done better.
Average short is 96.46.
I have an order to buy 5 at 95.96.
(Hoping I didn't zig went I should have zagged!)

Order in to sell 3 more at 97.05
10:39 = 13 min
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  #49 (permalink)
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  #50 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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Monday, May 23, 2011

Initial Cash Balance at Start of 5 May=$20,000

Opening cash balance today $52,390
Change in Cash $-5,310
Closing Cash Balance $47,080


New trades today (closed out 7 at closing =97.42):
BOT 1 97.64 8:47 and SLD 97.64 8:53 =+.22 =$220
SLD 3 96.87 @11:00 BOT 3 @ 97.42= -0.55 * 3,000 = -$1,650
SLD 12 96.46 @10:15 BOT 4 @ 97.42 =-0.97 *4,000 = -$3,880
(holding 8 short)

Open positions = -8 @ 96.46

Learning Lesson
Wait for topping action on 5 min CCI before selling

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