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Crude in 2011
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Crude in 2011

  #151 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Friday, September 02, 2011
11:14 CT
Sell 1 @ 87.62

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #152 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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josh View Post
aquarian, a question: do you have buy stops above the market at some point where you want out if you're wrong? Just curious what you would do as a longer term trader if the market just exploded up tomorrow like $4. How long do you hold?

Thank-you for the question. The quick answer is no - I would sell to meet the margin call at EOD. The more complete answer is yes which I explain below - but bear in mind I am still working with the idea of building a position.

Short Answer and not the real one:

EOD exiting system
Right now IB margin requirements are:
Overnight Initial Margin 8,424
Overnight Maintenance Margin 6,240.

Yesterday I was short 5:$6,240 * 5 = $31,200
Avg 5 at 87.484
Close Yest 88.69
Open equity -1.206 * 5,000 = -$6,030
Cash Balance = $66,460 Net equity $60,430 - $31,200 = $29,230
$29,230 /$5,000 = $5.846
$5.846+87.484 = $93.33 (at $93.33 I must buy to cover margin at EOD).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The real answer but longer answer:

Safety Value System

From my faux-pas a couple of months ago when I messed up I have decided to pick my bail-out price, then leave enough to be able to buy one just below that level and using initial overnight amounts in case they increase the margin amount during the day and force me to break my short line just at the wrong time.

So now I'm using the $8,424 giving me a cushion of $2,184 per contract in case the thieves move the margins rates intra-day again! (so in this long answer I'm using the safety amount and not the overnight maintenance amount.)

Using this 3 month chart to explain:
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My bail price is 92.03 and I want to be able to sell short1 last contract just below that 91.40 (so I want to keep $8,424 overnight initial margin $8,424 for that one). Cash is $66,460. $66,420 - $8,424 leaves $58,036 for the "trading line".

Net equity is $60,430 at close yest ($88.69).
So I am +$2,394==> OK but not able sell anymore in my trading line (keeping enough for the emergency sale of the last one.)
(If the price continued to rise I would look to buy-to-cover on the day following a close above $89.17. )

Strategy
Today, I bought one to cover at 86.20. This is because my currently position was poorly built and I want to hold less so I can sell higher. So now I am lighter and with a touch more cash.
Today:
86.36-86.20 =$0.16 *1,000 = $160
Opening cash balance today $66,460
Change in Cash $160
Closing Cash Balance $66,620
Less reserve of one $ 8,424
Cash for "trading line" $58,196

Holdings = short 4 Oct 2011 contracts
1 at 86.36
2 at 87.60
1 at 89.50
Avg 4 at 87.765

Lets say it bounces Tuesday and Wednesday and I sell one on Wed around 90.77
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Then 5 at 88.286

Ok so what happens it if continues to rise after Wednesday towards the bail-out price?
Sell short1 last contract at vibration below bail-out price = 91.40.
Then short 6:
1 at 86.36
2 at 87.60
1 at 89.50
1 at 90.77
1 at 91.40
average price = 88.8717
91.40-88.8717= -2.52833 *6,000 = -15,170 open equity.

What happens if price continues to rise to bail-out of $92.03?
Close position
92.03-88.8717= -3.1583 *6,000 = -18,950 open equity.
$66,620 - 18,950 = $47, 670.

lick wounds and wait!

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; September 2nd, 2011 at 03:13 PM.
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  #153 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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buy one more


Friday, September 02, 2011
14:20
order to buy one more at 86.10

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; September 2nd, 2011 at 04:25 PM.
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  #154 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Happy long weekend!!

Friday, September 02, 2011

Trades today:
BOT to cover 1 Oct 86.20@ 8:04
86.36-86.20 =$0.16 *1,000 = $160

Opening cash balance today $66,460
Change in Cash $160
Closing Cash Balance $66,620

Holdings = short 4 Oct 2011 contracts
1 at 86.36
2 at 87.60
1 at 89.50
Avg 4 at 87.765

Close today 86.71
Open equity 1.055 * 4,000 = $4,220
Cash Balance = $66,620
Net equity $70,840

Initial Cash Balance at Start of 5 May = $20,000

Change in equity since yesterday ($60,430 to $70,840)= =$10,410

no open orders

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #155 (permalink)
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Don't get out till 64.00 !!!

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Crude in 2011-cl-10-11-daily-2_3_2011-9_2_2011.jpg   Crude in 2011-cl-10-11-daily-1_18_2011-9_2_2011-2.jpg  

Last edited by tigertrader; September 2nd, 2011 at 06:07 PM.
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  #156 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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tigertrader View Post
Don't get out till 64.00 !!!

LOL Tiger!

We could get a bounce on Tuesday and Wednesday and I'll sell more on late Wednesday.
(see the little graph in my post to Josh)

If it doesn't bounce I'm still short 4 contracts - that's enough (even for paper trading)
We have the boyz getting together in Europe over the weekend and no doubt "pump, pump pump" til you drop Benny will be up to QE3 tricks.

Why not trade your own shadow portfolio along me. We can get @josh and others in. I'll give you guys net equity $70,840 - let's be generous $71,000 -- and we can all trade mano-a mano.

let the games begin!!

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #157 (permalink)
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Thanks aqua -- happy trading and a good weekend to you!

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  #158 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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aquarian1 View Post
Why not trade your own shadow portfolio along me. We can get @josh and others in. I'll give you guys net equity $70,840 - let's be generous $71,000 -- and we can all trade mano-a mano.

let the games begin!!

@TraderJoe0410

Why not join in Joe - you'll beat the pants off us I'm sure!

The contest is open to anyone.

Mostly for those making occasional swing trades. If your style is scapling for a quick 20cents then that would be better in a separate thread, I think. This doesn't mean you can't bail on a trade quickly though - these things happen. No hard and fast limits on trades per week - but I'm visualizing the maximum round turns at about 15 or so per week.

Guidelines


"Rules"
  • You get $71,000
  • You post your trades before you make them - if you can - or it not then within a few minutes.
  • If you get a margin call you must sell out to meet the margin call just like in real life.
------
Benefits:
  • If you trade it and post your results then you can learn from what you did correctly and incorrectly and thereby increase you confidence in your abilities.
  • Trading as a group can make it a bit more fun and get to see what the other guy/gal is thinking.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #159 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Platform: IB and free NT
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Entry timeline

Please "throw your hat in the ring " before the end of the labor day weekend (so before 9am ET Tuesday 6 Sept 2011).
No requirement to start trading then though.

Late entries

I'm not sure how to do this but one idea is that we take the arithmetic mean (sum all net equity positions of all current participate and divide by the number of participants.) and that is your starting cash for the following Monday.

eg.
$85,000
$70,000
$63,000
Sum = $218,000 / 3 team players=$72,667

Other ideas? (we could use the mode or the median.) Perhaps the mode is fairest?

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; September 4th, 2011 at 06:55 PM.
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  #160 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 3,234 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,163 given, 1,749 received
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Prizes


An autographed copy of my lastest and as yet unwritten book:

"How I made a million dollars in CL -
start with $3 million and don't trade too often."

- just kidding.
The prize is different for each participant.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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