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Refunding auctions start today
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Refunding auctions start today

  #21 (permalink)
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jstnbrg View Post
Here's the final update, all non TIPS coupon auction results from 2008 to 2011. The dates are all proofread, the numbers are not. The dates are what are most important IMO.

Thank you very much.

I will see what I can do with this. First thing to do is to start with the dates and see if there is any regularity prior to, during and after the auctions.

If your assumption that the prime dealers go short prior to the auctions, then load up during the auctions and finally get rid of the stuff after the auctions is true, this can be certainly detected.

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Fat Tails View Post
Thank you very much.

If your assumption that the prime dealers go short prior to the auctions, then load up during the auctions and finally get rid of the stuff after the auctions is true, this can be certainly detected.

It's sure what I would do. I don't think I'd have much choice.

This probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: there should be a control period. For example, assuming there is a bias on auction days, you would need to look at similar time periods on non-auction days to make sure you weren't just seeing a general directional bias in the market.

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I have subscribed to a free RSS feed at TreasuryDirect, so my browser will automatically alert me if the results of the treasury auctions are announced

The subscription includes a linkto the document below, which shows today's results.

The question is, whether there is an useful information that can be retrieved from the result, such as the amount tendered and the bid-to cover ratio. For me USD 35,000,000,000 looks seems a respectable amount for a single auction.

Who is going to repay? Foreign bond holders?

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Refunding auctions start today-r_20110125_2.pdf  

Last edited by Fat Tails; January 25th, 2011 at 06:42 PM. Reason: RSS Feed for Treasury Auctions
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Who is going to repay? Foreign bond holders?

I'm not sure I understand the question, but I'll take it at face value. The US is borrowing $35 billion in this auction. In two years, most likely the US will just borrow it again, plus whatever else we need to borrow, since we don't seem to be willing to either cut spending or increase taxes or both.

I do not have a problem with running big deficits when on the brink of a depression, which I believe we were, especially when asset prices are deflating. The problem is that we do not currently have the political will to deal with our structural problems when times are good. We should be running surpluses when the economy is strong. Also in this country "tax" has become a dirty word no matter what value one may be receiving for taxes paid. Everyone here seems to want something for nothing.

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U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

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Results of yesterday's auction and updated auction calendar for the coming auction attached. The most important thing to know is the auctions calendar, as this will have an impact on trading during that week. The auction calendar can be downloaded here:

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/auctions.pdf

Auction results are available here, so I will not post them again.

Institutional - Previous Announcements and Results

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Refunding auctions start today-r_20110126_2.pdf   Refunding auctions start today-auctionscalendar.pdf  
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Based on price action before the ten year auction, I think this one is going to go well.

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