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ZN vs. ES
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ZN vs. ES

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Studio City
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: ZN, ES, GC
Posts: 51 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 1 given, 40 received

Cudashark View Post
Hey Fat Tails How Have you Been?

Any how I have trade all three of these and trade the ZB exclusively now for a two years.

The ES; I don't like the ES for a few reasons and mostly because I continually got my ass kicked...but first you need wide stops for the "stop runners" Stops are obvious and in order to stay in the position you need to be in less obvious position.

The per tick is only 12.50 and commission is 3.68RT on Ninja Full Lic. A 1 tick loss means you no need 16.18 to break even if you have a 1 tick gain you still are down 7.36 so you need at least 2 tick to break even...

The ZN has huge depth and can move on data days. The commission is 2.28 and per tick is 15.62 so after a 1 tick loss 17.90
and a 1 tick gain you are offset only 4.56 so you still need 2 ticks but actually end up with 8.78. Much better than the ES

The ZB moves twice as much as the zn and has a 2.28 commission but a 30.25 per tick pay out. So a 1 tick loss is 32.53 then a 1 tick gain is 27.97 and yes you will need 2 ticks to better than break even but you take is 25.69. Big difference.

I use the UB as a directional indicator and Jigsaw as an entry DOM. The thing about the Jigsaw DOM is that it will show you where your order is in the line up. (see pic)

The UB moves further and faster than the ZB but always in unison. The ZN can be used as a confirmation but I don't use it any more. I have boiled 4 screens down to one and trade much better for it.

My theory is the the UB and ZB are traded by big players using algo's based on the ZN movement. They use ZN as a major direction and UB and ZB to capture Alpha$$

Attachment 178071

The blue box (1L 122) means my 1 long is 122 in line

Very useful when you can see who is adding and pulling there orders.

ZB tends to overshoot ZN, but eventually comes around. That is also a helpful tool.

Don't forget to mention the huge leverage advantage over ES as margins are much, much lower, especially ZN.

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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney, Australia
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: Treasuries
RapidFire's Avatar
Posts: 5 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 18 given, 1 received

ZN & ZB move in step but the key is to know which one is leading. Since the range is smaller compared to ES, precise entry is needed to get the max benefit. And after the first 2 hours it can get really slow on most days.

ZN/ZB also correlate with ES most of the time, but not inversely always. Again, context is needed to understand what moves the market.

Since the leverage can be quite good in the bonds, the question is: will you be able to enter/exit precisely with good size and manage the increased risk size? and, if you have a good scaling strategy, bonds can work out very well.

ES is a high risk/high reward game whereas bonds have relatively low risk (you have time to analyze and exit with minimal damage if wrong) but can reward you if you can be patient.

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