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Hey guys,
Have been actively trading the Bund for the past 4 months, and have been swing trading other markets for the past 1.5 years. Would be interesting to hear other traders approach and strategies as I cannot find much discussion about FGBL or other bond trading. Personally my strategy involves going for the larger intraday moves with greater than 1.5R r/r:
D1, H1 charts to establish directional bias. these charts along with the 5m and the market profile(d1,W1) are used to determine good levels that I trade with limit orders and stops <12 ticks usually between 5 and 10 ticks.
My trigger time frame is the 5m chart, I generally trade outside the Value Area on the day and only at levels I determine to be high quality using limit orders, the only time I will get more aggressive with my entries is when I have a strong directional bias on the day, if I am unsure about a level I will wait for further confirmation via either 5m chart, 5m footprint, Price Ladder and location on market profile. My strategy is certainly not a scalping approach and my time in a trade is probably on the higher end in comparison to other intraday strategies.
Overall my approach has been only slightly above break even over 100+ trades, considering this is my first attempt at intraday trading I believe this will be a profitable approach in the near future if I keep the work up. My location is Western Australia so I am limited in the futures markets I am able to trade due to my timezone. Will be interesting to hear others approach to trading the Rates.
I'm just the opposite... 10 ticks or 10 minutes. We're all different.
For the first couple of hours after the Open, I watch for reactions off the Prev Day Hi/Low, or the Previous Day VAH, VAL, and POC.
Thats my day, I lose concentration after a couple of hours. I can't focus for the CL and ES main sessions so the Bund suits me well..
Heres a very early fast trade on a 2.5 min chart. I normally watch the 5 min and above but sometimes going faster can show a little something..
I am glad you join us. How far is your Take Profit normally ? 30 Ticks ? My Take Profits are normally 10-20 Ticks but sometimes i extend it to 30 Ticks. How many trades do you make usually daily ?
One similarity between us is that we all use Market Profile/Volume Profile to detect good Areas for entrys.
If you slightly break even now, its probably that you will make profits in the future.
You trade very early, i don t like to trade before 8 o'clock. I use exactly this levels to find some good breakout trades, but i use Daily High/Low too. At these levels i look for confirmation in DOM and T&S, the last trigger for my entry is the Price Action.
I lose concentration after a few hours too, that is why i trade from 8 o´clock till 12 o´clock and sometimes from 1 pm to 3 pm.
I use 2500 Volume Candle Chart, but watch primarily the DOM. I also watch Daily, M30 and Price Distribution Chart.
Today i expected the Bund will break dynamic the Contract Low at 170.56. I am right with my assessment but i trade it not very well. The fakes in the Range aren´t not typical for the Bund, in my opinion. In this area we had a lot of big market buys, so i decide to close my trade, unfortunately.
My target for the Re Short was to large, so i had a losing day.
My tp on a standard trade will usually be 10-20 ticks all my tps and stops are determined by price action and never are arbitrary. If I have a directional bias I will set targets off a daily/h1 chart so final target can be quite large (30-100 ticks) however this will only be when I am confident of direction and partial profits will be taken along the way.
In regards to number of trades it varies but when I started it was far more (5-10). My statistics showed me that my strike rate was <40% so have focused on taking less trades and setting max number of stop outs in a day I believe this has greatly improved my trading as I now tend to take less then 5 a day, I will take more with less confluence if I am trading well. If I am able to achieve over a 50 percent strike rate with my strategy, I believe it will be quite profitable due to the high R/R setups I take.
Here is the effort to break above last weeks Low. It had dipped under earlier today and I noticed a decent bar that looked like it was going to push through. It had decent price, delta and range.
Then came 20 minutes of sideways, (this was a bit worrying) with large support stopping it falling. So I went Long, only to see large Sells appear, so I got out.
A little while later, it pulled back to the WLow, tested and moved up.
I'm not good at breakouts.. Lesson to me: leave the breakouts, look for the pullback/test..
Heres another early trade, about 25 min after the Open but before the cash opens.
You can see simple price action moves like this maybe 2 or 3 times a week. Never big runners but 5 to 10 ticks to start the day.
You can soon see if you're wrong. My stops tend to be ~7/8 ticks so r:r is ~1:1. After the first hour, volatility increases, and 'my type of trade' then tend to give a r:r of ~1.5:1.
I don't explain my charts. If you like to follow my trades, look for these lines.