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The Cuckening - Death of Bond Market Volatility
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The Cuckening - Death of Bond Market Volatility

  #1 (permalink)
Papa Hodler
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: TT & CQG
Favorite Futures: Bonds of every country (AU/UK/CA/EU/US), Commodities (Soft, Hard, Metals), Currencies,
 
s0mmi's Avatar
 
Posts: 24 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 10 given, 105 received

The Cuckening - Death of Bond Market Volatility

First, some statistics (From Australia)

1. There has not been a single successful trainee in 3 years, from any firm that I have heard of, that has traded Bonds (successful meaning that they made minimum wage for 18 months based on withdrawals and they're still trading). If you are a successful trainee please post in here and tell us about your journey!

2. Systematic wipe-out of about 90% of the traders I know. They are all gone. Some have had 1-2 years experience, some have had 10-20 years experience. Many in-between. A lot have bruised egos... won't reply to messages... can't look themselves in the mirror... not surprised.

The hurdle rate is high. You must trade multiple products and you'll need an auto-spreader... and a proper charting package... desk climbs to $5,000-$6,000/month. You need to be precise and perfect to survive. Only the strongest survie!

If you were a virgin before trading Bonds in 2016, then your cherry has certainly been popped.

I have spent the past 1-2 years trying to find answers as to why every single Bond Market futures in the world has experienced a death of volatility... and now I have my answer:

I found the only article on the internet which explains (disable adblock):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthf...death-of-bond-market-volatility/#75c758ea6674



Spreads have been tightening on a consistent basis. Inflation is not as hot as the central bankers would like them to be... and clicky-clicky humans have witnessed the sledgehammer on their career.

Framework: How to make money

Before I continue, just a quick caveat that you can still win and here's a frame-work;

* Multiple products (3-5 minimum)
* Back-testing and research (Visual / Eye-balling charts is considered research)
* Lower size (Contrary to the cucks, you LOWER size in reduced volatility and you INCREASE size when the action appears because your probability of making back the juice is higher)

Forward into time...

There are two camps of people:

#1 - Markets will come back so I'm going to take a holiday and/or continue doing the same primitive strategy

#2 - I have to evolve and adapt

Only 1 in 20 people go into Camp #2 because it's very harsh on your ego and pride and requires a lot of work. Who wants to sit at home on a Saturday and Sunday, going through exchanges and charts, wrapping studies and charts around your head just for the 'maybe' chance of finding edge?

If you don't want to, then the guy next to you will...

So as a general guide if you are in Bonds and you are getting cucked then you have to diversify into:

1. Equity Futures (Choose from the indices available)
2. Soft Commodity Futures (Wheat, Corn, Cocoa, Sugar, etc.)
3. Hard Commodity Futures (Metals like Gold, Silver etc.)
4. Energy (Oil / Gasoil / Gasoline )

-----------

By the way, if anyone is from any algo firm or trading group, or wants to make free money, Australian Outright Equities on the ASX are easy mode and primitive to trade. Much like what it used to be 2005-2007 in USA.

If you haven't started a career in Futures yet, I strongly urge you to trade Australian Shares. I have heard stories of people being down heaps of money who were able to turn it around in Aussie shares.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Where are you getting this information? Surely if the issue was as pervasive as no trainee making the turn in 3 years, there'd be more news about it. And if 90% of traders are gone then the markets would behave much differently.

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  #4 (permalink)
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Memphis TN
 
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I just want to score some of that free money you're talking about. How's that done exactly?

Someday, and that day may never come, I'll call upon you to do a service for me.
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  #5 (permalink)
Papa Hodler
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Master
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lax99 View Post
Where are you getting this information? Surely if the issue was as pervasive as no trainee making the turn in 3 years, there'd be more news about it. And if 90% of traders are gone then the markets would behave much differently.

I've been a trader for 7 years and I know people from every single prop firm in Sydney. I know which ones are scams and which ones are 'ok'. I know the success rates of all these places. There is literally no-one and its very unfortunate for the Futures game.

I also get e-mailed every month about recommendations for courses and I know what goes on in-house. It's well documented (on elitetrader, though)

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  #6 (permalink)
Papa Hodler
Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: TT & CQG
Favorite Futures: Bonds of every country (AU/UK/CA/EU/US), Commodities (Soft, Hard, Metals), Currencies,
 
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Posts: 24 since Oct 2016
Thanks: 10 given, 105 received


Pariah Carey View Post
I just want to score some of that free money you're talking about. How's that done exactly?

If you want to start a career in trading I would heavily advise not doing Futures in Australia. This is because you would need an autospreader (TT) starting off and your Desk/Software fee would be $4,700-$5,500 (Mine is almost $6k)

Instead... go to Australian Shares/equities. They are easy mode. I have heard from 5 people that it is easy mode. The price-action is fluid, there are much less market-makers and algorithms in there.

The levels are easy to read and volume is easy to lean on. It's all Outright trading. Read news reports in the morning, have some Volume indicators (which will let you know which Share is currently active/moving a lot)... and you're good to go.

However, it won't be like this forever, maybe 2-3 years... but with Aussie Shares, your hours are beautiful (Day time only) and you have much less desk/software fees.

I got told a story of a spastic who couldn't make money in Futures doing spreads (when everyone else was winning) and he blew his account, went to Aussie shares and was able to make it back.

99.99% of people in this industry are selfish scum and won't share anything, so here I am blowing the lid for anyone who wants to join the game. You're welcome

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  #7 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/how-the-boj-crushed-trading-in-japan-s-10-trillion-bond-market

Link fixed


Last edited by orderlyflows; May 24th, 2018 at 05:24 AM.
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  #8 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.jigsawtrading.com 
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Great post from the OP.

Funny that this came to light. There's been a few time's I wanted to mention the state of affairs in Oz but I have relationships with people in these firms and really don't want to risk that.

This state of affairs is causing some consolidation in the prop world in Oz - firms buying/merging with firms.

But the Aussie market has always been quite incestuous. And there's not much of a retail market to leech off - that was killed off a while back (greed) - but that's another story.

In terms of why bond markets are crap - quite simply - static, near zero interest rates.

Now - this is NOT a global thing that no-one is making money from bonds anywhere - it's an Aussie thing mostly. A lot of the firms there are trading multi-leg spreads and the upshot is that it can take a day to get in and out of a trade and it's very hard to make it past the fees. A lot of guys are quitting.

Spreads are getting more complex with more legs (or possibly firms are pushing these strategies to increase fees).

So it's pretty common to hear "I'd have made money if it weren't for the fees".

Like all things, this will pass. As the OP says - there's other stuff to trade - so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

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  #9 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Kolumbia
 
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what is the average round trip cost all-in fees that australian prop firms get on the sfe 90 days futures,

is there a rebate scheme based on volume that easily accessible?

do you still trade flies on this market?

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  #10 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Amsterdam Netherlands
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader
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I am sure the algos will have something to do with it as well, don't they? getting smarter all the time.

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