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Bond Bears Still in Play
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Bond Bears Still in Play

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Portland, Oregon, USA
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TradeStation and Meta
Favorite Futures: Gold, Crude, Currencies, Financials
Posts: 3 since Jul 2017
Thanks: 2 given, 0 received

Bond Bears Still in Play

I think Bonds will fall sharply.

Monthly chart shows end-of-month for the last 6 months has closed BELOW the Exponential Moving Average and we have already commenced a drop from 172ish to 151ish currently, with a slight break in between...and I believe the next strong move will be lower.

Based on recent CFTC position reports, I see that the Large Speculators are coming off record long positions (Longest since 2008) and they will need to cover their longs, which I think will portend a drop in Treasuries overall from here for a spell.

Perhaps 145? 140? If bears are really lucky, then even 130...or lower. But I think we will at least see 5-10 points down from here overall these next weeks/months (2nd half of year), which isn't half bad.

(Once I have posted 5 times on here, I can post links and images and charts, etc.)

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Little Rock, AR, USA
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: ZB, ES
Posts: 24 since Jul 2017
Thanks: 2 given, 40 received

Are you holding bonds overnight? If you are thinking that far out, chances are that you must be. Would you mind sharing your profit ratio as an overnight trader, if that is the case? I ask only out of curiosity, I've always traded intraday, and am curious how the longer term guys are making out.

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