When to trade ZB/ZN? - Bonds and Interest Rates Trading | futures io social day trading
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When to trade ZB/ZN?
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When to trade ZB/ZN?

  #51 (permalink)
Elite Member
Omaha, NE/USA
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: S5 Trader; Jigsaw; TOS
Broker/Data: Stage 5
Favorite Futures: ZN
 
johny1971's Avatar
 
Posts: 107 since Sep 2016
Thanks: 219 given, 97 received

Trading to the Mean


MichaelFlowTrader View Post

For me, I find that ZN/ZB are better for mean reversion scalping. I have never seen more than a 5 tick loss trading these products. Typically my losses are no more than 1-3 ticks. I trade it scalping the DOM with a Line on Close chart just to see the ranges. My biggest problem is that it is like watching paint dry.

How do you define the mean? Or, are you playing edges and counting on double tops/bottoms?

During the 6am C hour I hope for opportunity to trade the mean when the current Globex session has a POC that is like around 40% greater than the two adjacent nodes. In the past two weeks I have had one situation and played it twice successfully. It is play for strictly one tick.

I also use a chart. I use a five minute candle, but am not satisfied with it while trading. I am just starting out and seeing what might work. Like I play with the minute chart and that did not help much. I will try the line chart.

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  #52 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Brisbane, Australia
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ZF/ZN
 
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Charts won't help on an instrument that moves in a 4 tick range, volume does.

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  #53 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
London, UK
 
Trading Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB (TWS), DeCarley(Zaner)
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Shorting ZB


My trade below is probably inappropriate for this thread, as the focus seems to be short-term day-trading/scalping, but just wanted to mention that I shorted the ZBH9 yesterday at just above 143 and bought a Jan 147 protective call. Rational being that ZB has risen for about 18 days out of the last 19 and is technically overbought, and is due a breather.

(Same logic applies to ZN.)

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The following user says Thank You to zxcv64 for this post:
 
  #54 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Houston
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Favorite Futures: ZN, CL, ES, GC
 
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ive been trading ZN for some time and love its liquidity, and I actually like that its in thirty seconds as well, Personally Selling iron condors is my goto, what are some of the strategies you guys use ? Any one ever go on the line minutes before employment numbers?

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  #55 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
São Paulo, Brasil
 
Trading Experience: None
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Emini ES
 
Posts: 8 since Mar 2017
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I thought of forecasting the interest rate changes, using neural networks... And then trade options... What do you guys think?

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  #56 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Houston
 
Trading Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Favorite Futures: ZN, CL, ES, GC
 
Posts: 4 since Aug 2018
Thanks: 4 given, 0 received


ssp729 View Post
I thought of forecasting the interest rate changes, using neural networks... And then trade options... What do you guys think?

ok forgive me for not know what you are referring to, but do you mean some kind of AI that takes everything into consideration based on dovish fed, tarrifs, unemployment and comes up with fed meeting recommendation?

interest rate changes move /ZN just like employment situation as does PPI and many others, if you wanted to use this approach would you do it for all of the statistically significant needle movers? what platform do you have access to?

this is an interesting idea, and one that I wish I had access to kensho to run though, even though that is mostly raw data, it would provide some parameters for this

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