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New ZN Trader
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New ZN Trader

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
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Posts: 5 since Mar 2015
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New ZN Trader

I just recently decided I wanted to trade ZN so I've been using a practice account for 2 weeks now, will keep using it for a few months til I feel comfortable. My question is it wise to avoid trading on NFP days? Was watching ZN and I had my stop set for 129'00 and entered the trade last night at 129'03. But lets say NFP came out better than expected, my stop would've gotten ran and my fill would've been considerably lower than I wanted. It jumped from 129'08 straight to 130 in a second. But if opposite happened it could've been an ugly story.

TLDR; How do you guys trade around employment data releases?

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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experienced traders avoid trading around important news releases. it's not about ZN, it'a about just every market

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  #4 (permalink)
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shzhning View Post
experienced traders avoid trading around important news releases. it's not about ZN, it'a about just every market

yea thats true. I guess I didnt realize how big of an impact NFP would have. Will have to avoid trading around it in the future

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  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Washington State
 
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Read My Mind

It's crazy that you mention this. I just saw this happen a few hours ago and I was wondering what it was. I thought it was a bond auction but it turned out to be NFP. Now I know that NFP affects bond markets I'll know to either sit out until its done or figure out a way to capitalize the opportunity.

But this post read my mind...

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  #6 (permalink)
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Yeah best not to hold positions into big data releases, unless you have deep pockets. I really like trading in the minutes following data releases, very exploitable patterns there.

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  #7 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
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Another Question

Ive read the 10 year is the most liquid bond future but finding info on trading strategies for it is proving difficult. Is it a good instrument to trade? My first approach is to trade using basic support and resistance levels, depending on what works in sim I will adapt new parameters. I am aware that sim fill prices are not realistic so I am tracking my trades in excel and giving myself 1 tick worse on my fills, probably more accurate that way.

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  #8 (permalink)
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If you always buy ask and sell bid in your sim, then you won't have problems with your fills being non-realistic.
Assuming you always use limit orders of course but this is just an idea.

Yes ZN is very liquid, and this is desirable of course. I don't know if it is the most liquid of all treasuries futures on ECBOT, but it is way deeper than ZB!

Bonds usually respect quite well the support and resistance concept, and they tend to trend nicely too
I advise you to stick to long time frames for best results...

Good luck
Fadi

Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
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  #9 (permalink)
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@ Drewo,

I would suggest you give some heavy consideration to this questions before deciding to trade the treasuries around news releases. If you're analysis properly covers the basis on all of these fundamentals, then you're trade strategy around the news release should be good to go. If not...you may be walking into a coin flip.

1. Why the 10 year versus the 2, 5, 30, or even compared to say the German Bund?
2. What is your plan if the data is a hit or miss? How much of a threshold of a miss before your trade plan changes?
3. How much data and research do you have to support your thesis that the data will hit or miss?
4. How does a hit or miss change monetary policy forecasts?

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  #10 (permalink)
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Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
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MacroNinja View Post
@ Drewo,

I would suggest you give some heavy consideration to this questions before deciding to trade the treasuries around news releases. If you're analysis properly covers the basis on all of these fundamentals, then you're trade strategy around the news release should be good to go. If not...you may be walking into a coin flip.

1. Why the 10 year versus the 2, 5, 30, or even compared to say the German Bund?
2. What is your plan if the data is a hit or miss? How much of a threshold of a miss before your trade plan changes?
3. How much data and research do you have to support your thesis that the data will hit or miss?
4. How does a hit or miss change monetary policy forecasts?

I definitely dont plan to trade around news releases. Just too scary for my tastes, Im sure some people enjoy the thrill but not me.

I like the 10 year because it doesnt move as much as the 30 year, but moves more than the 2 and 5. Not enough action in the 2 and 5 years for my tastes, but the 30 year seems more than I can handle at the moment. I would trade 30 year after I get comfortable with the 10 year though.

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