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10 YEARS T NOTE FUTURES DAY TRADING
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10 YEARS T NOTE FUTURES DAY TRADING

  #1 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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10 YEARS T NOTE FUTURES DAY TRADING

I am starting a daily analisis of the 10 Years T Note futures having in mind day trading.
My focus will be on the outcry session (7.20 am to 2 pm CST) and I will consider, on a Market Profile basis, that Initial Balance is from 6.30 to 7.30 am., which is to say during europe lunch time and prior to the release of US statistics (usually 7.30 or 10 am CST).

The posts will be structured as follows :
1. Tale of what the market did the previous day.
2. POC, HVN's, selling and buying tails, if any.
3. Comments of a daily graph, a 4H graph with Ichimoku and one without.
4. Main supports and resistances.
5. My view on the next day, if any.

I will post every day prior to 6.30 am and once during the week-end.

I hope this file will be long lived and bring some interest between your goodselves.

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  #3 (permalink)
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Looking forward to it as I just started watching the 10 yr myself. I've been using 7:20-8:20 as the initial balance because I assumed the IB was always the first hour of rth trading. Why do you think 630-730 is a better idea? Is that the industry standard?

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ABORTED RISE ON UNEMPLOYMENT RELATED FIGURE

On Friday, outcry open was a shade below outcry closing of the previous day and some selling pressure made prices to decrease prior to the release of the 2.30 figure. Upon the release, prices rocketed to 125'.21 and at such level some reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices regularly decreased untill outcry closing, which is not far from Thursday's outcry closing.

My guess for POC is 125'.12 where there is an HVN. Session has a "p" shape with most of the volume traded in the 125'.07 - 14' range.

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On this Globex day graph, I do see a reverse hammer. 124'.24-28 proved to be a support area.

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On this Glober 4H Ichimoku graph, we can see that the cloud is resistance but that it will be very thin on Monday.
Ichimoku indicators are in a bearish mode but it is worth noting that Kijun Sen is now below Tenkan Sen, usually an indication of a reverse trend.

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On the 4H globex graph, I drafted an horizontal channel with two big spikes on its resistance.
Closing of a 4H candle outside the 124' 24 - 125' 12 range may give next trend.

Above 125' 22 there is 125' 24-29 (HoW)
Below 124' 24 I do not see an obvious support for the time being.

Have a nice week-end.

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CHOICE FOR IB

@Profiler
Your choice for IB is the normal practice and the industry standard.

I have however the feeling that when there is a major statistic at 7.30 am, like on Friday, an IB ending at 8.30 does not make much use.....

So I am using for analizing market behaviour an IB from 6.30 to 7.30. Such time range allows the market to take into account the European morning session and 10' of the outcry. Therefore, an exit from prices quoted during such time frame shall mean that the US traders do not accept the value quoted at the end of the european session and it is an interesting starting point for a day trader

As long as it helps to make money, I will keep it. If it stops doing so, I will drop it and come back to the normal practice.

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A DOWN DAY

Outcry session opened with a wide upward gap and during the two first hours, market explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers, making its HoD at 125.'12, Friday's HVN but also MA44 level.
Reactive Sellers entered then the market and pushed prices down to Friday's outcry closing session level (125'.020) and even further below. Outcry session ended one tick above LoD (124.'280), which is Thursday's LoD level).

At 125.'120, there is an HVN and POC, at about the same level, is only a shade below Friday's value.
Value lower end is about 125'. 020.

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Result, on this Globex 1 day graph, is a red candle with an upper shadow, its upper end being in contact with MA 20.
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On this 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that all indicators are on a bearish mode.

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MA44 did a good job as resistance. It is to be seen whether 124'.240 horizontal resistance will hold or not.

Below 124'.240-195 (3xLoD and S1), there is 124'065-070 (S2 and July 31st LoD) then 123'.255 (July 3rd LoD).
On the resistance side, I do see 125.000-020 (value lower end and Tenkan Sen) then 125.045 (Kijun Sen and cloud lower hedge) and finally 125'.120 (HoD and cloud upper hedge).

Only JOLT statistic tomorrow at 10 am. I would not be surprised to see a rebound on 124'.190-210 level.

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WAITING FOR THE AUCTION

Outcry market opened at 124'.210, with a downard gap with Monday's closing and almost immediately 124'.185 was reached. It was to become LoD for reactive Buyers entered into the market at such level and prices rose to 124'.26, which was to become HoD. Market was then trendless and ended at the opening level.

At 124'.22, POC is much lower than Monday's which has not been visited and is therefore virgin.

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On the 4H graph, I drafted a dowanrd channel and it seems that prices may rose from the supporting oblique tomorrow. The trend is however clearly bearish.

On the support side, LoD (124'.185) is a first one then 124'.065-070 (S2 and former low) then 123'.255 (S3 and former low).
On the resistance side, above HoD and Tenkan Sen (124'.260-270 ) there is Kijun Sen and MA 44 (125'.030-070) and finally Monday's HoD (125'.12).

There is a 10 years T Note auction tomorrow. Its result will show what is the actual market appetite.

Good Evening.

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Faites vos jeux, rien ne va plus.

On Wednesday, outcry session opened with a downard gap and was trendless in a 124.'120 -190 range.

At 124'.160, POC is lower than the prvious day.

Day candle is small and red.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators are in a bearish mode. At 124'. 27, Kijun Sen could act as resistance in the case of an upward move upon release of the unemployment related figure at 7.30 am.

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Prices ended below the downard channel supporting oblique, somehow oversold in my opinion.

On the resistance side, over HoD (124'.19) we have 124'.215 (Tuesday's HVN) then 124.240-270 area (several former LoD's together with Kijun Sen), then 124'.295 (MA44) and finally 125'.040-060 (upper 4H BB together with resistance oblique of the downard channel and weekly PP).
On the support side, below LoD (124'.12) there is S1 (124'.060) then July 31st low ( 123'.110) and finally S2 (123'.060).

Fasten seat belts, the figure to be released in 25'.

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UPWARD BROADENING STRUCTURE IN 30'

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In 30', I drafted an upward broadening structure. I do see what could be a partial rotation.
If, upon release of the 7.30 am figure, prices do go back to the supporting oblique, target is 124'.12 (Yesterday's LoD).

Take care.

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TARGET ACHIEVED


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