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10 YEARS T NOTE FUTURES DAY TRADING
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10 YEARS T NOTE FUTURES DAY TRADING

  #21 (permalink)
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A LOW HAS BEEN MADE

Outcry Market opened with a wide upward gap, made a low at 123'.240 and then resume its upward move ending almost at HoD.

At 123'.310, POC is higher than the previous day and there is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a green candle with a lower shadow which forms with the two previous ones a morning star.
We may have seen a low.

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Prices ended at Kijun Sen level wih Tenkan Sen now in support. Shikou Span is still below the candle line. The cloud will be very thin early next week, offering almost no resistance in the case of an upward move.

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I traced a downard channel with MA44 merginng with resistance oblique.

The weekly candle is a doji with long legs, located after a red candle. It could be a structure of continunation (of the downard trend) or of reverse. In this latter case, a green candle should follow, making a morning star.
Prices ended at weely PP. If prices stay above, target is R1 (124'.190) not faar from HoW (124'.200).
Going below could mean going to S1(124'.145) not far from LoW (145'.160).

On the support side we have 123'.180-160 (Value low end and LoW) then S1 (124'.140), mid S1-S2 (124'.060) and finally S2 (123'.290).
On the resistance side, there is HoD and MA44 (124'.030-040) then R1 and HoW (124'185-200), mid R1-R2 (124'280) and R2(125'060).

I think the market will be up next week but it has first to exit the downard channel by above.

Have a nice Sunday.

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  #22 (permalink)
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EXIT FROM THE DOWNARD CHANNEL

Outcry Market opened with an upward gap, made a double bottom at 124.'030, a shade below Friday's HoD and ended at 124'.100, some ticks below HoD (124'.125)

At 124'.060, POC is higher than Friday's, which remains virgin. There is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a green candle with a small upper shadow. Such candle is a bit smaller thant the previous one.

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Prices are in the cloud which is rather thin. Shikou Span is still below the candle line. Tenkan Sen crossed over Kijun Sen, an event that usually means a main trend change.

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Market exit from the downard channel by above, making a throuwback on MA 44 which is now on support.

124.03(LoD and MA44) is a first support, then 123'.310 (MA23).
On the resistance side I do see 124'200 (HoW and daily SSB)) after today's HoD.

I have the feeling that market is rather balanced at present levels and that we could see a trendless market in the coming days, except if there is a dramatic newsflow.

Good Evening.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Outcry market opened with an upward gap which was almost filled by mid morning. By noon incenntive Buyers entered into the market which ended at is HoD.

At 124'.115, POC is higher than the previous day which was also higher than the day before. Friday's and Monday's POC are virgin ; Buyers are strongly in control of the market.

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Result is another green candle, which forms with the two previous one the three soliders structure. SSB (124'.205), MA 20 and MA50 (124'.250) are not very far and I am expecting corresponding levels to be tested soon.

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As expected the cloud offered no resistance and prices ended above. All indicators are bullish in this TU.

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For what it is worth, I traced an horizontal line. Market actually ended at the FOMC released minutes spike top.
I think that market will test the grey horizontal line (124'260) a former horizontal support that may become a resistance.

So above HoD and R1 (124'.200), next resistance is 124.'250-260 (MA 20D, MA 50D, former LoD's) then R2 (125'.060).
On the support sidethere is today's POC and lower value end (124'.115-130) then MA 44 and PP (124'.015-025) and finaly 123'.160 (LoW).

Tomorrow the New Home Sales related data could bring some volatility together with the geoplitical newsflow such as the Syrian jet shot down by the Israelis.

Good Evening.


Last edited by MARS; September 23rd, 2014 at 06:10 PM.
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  #24 (permalink)
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Market opened with an upward gap and upon release of the 8.30 data, begun to rise and reached the 124.'250 resistance level. It ended a shade below.

At about 124'220, POC is higher than the previous days. There is no HVN.

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On the globex, result is a green candle, in loop belt, which ends at MA 50D level and a shade above SSB.
The cloud may offer some resistance in the case of a upward move.

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Kijun Sen acted as support. All indicators are bullish in this TU.

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I drafted a reverse H&S with an oblique as neckline. Price ended at 124'250 which is september 3rd LoD (i.e. a former support that may become a resistance.
Failure to go over 125'250 could trigger some reactive Sellers to enter into the market.

Would the market retrace tomorrow, we have 124'185-190 (former resistance) as a possible support then 124'.120 and finally 124'080.
On the resistance side, above HoD (125'250 there mid R1-R2 (124'280) then Kijun Sen Daily (125'010) and finally R2 (125.'065).

Stocks bad beheaviour and associated flight to quality is supporting the T Notes. If there is a stocks recovery, T Notes will be vulnerable to some profit taking.

On a broader view, it is worth noting that present level is not far from 50% retracement of the fall from mid August top to 123'.165.


Good Evening

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MARKET RISE COMES TO A STOP

Outcry market opened with an upward gap and shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers, testing the 124'.285-295 resistance level.
Upon release of the 7.30 data, incentive Sellers heavily pushed prices down to 124.'110. Session ended a shade above.

At about 124'160, POC is lower than the previous day and there is an HVN at POC level.

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As forecasted, MA 50D and the cloud offered a good resistance.

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Prices ended below Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen. The cloud will get thicker at the end of the week to come.

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I traced a broadening rising structure (three points of contact on each oblique).
MA44 is in support and rising. Level of fast stochastics advocate for a rotation upward which however could be partial.
In the case of an exit by below, target is 124'030. A partial rotation would be a clear sign that next test of the support oblique would be the good one. Such partial rotation could very well be around 124.'200-220 area or making a double top in the 124'280-290 area.

Weekly candle is green with an upper shadow. Weekly PP is at 124'160. Market ended around such value.
S1 (124'010) is the target in the case prices go below PP, a figure not far from the broadenning rising structure below exit target (124.'030). R1 (124'285) is the target if prices do stay above PP. That would mean doing another rotation up in the broadenning rising structure.

On the way upward I do see a first resistance at 124'220 (mid PP-R1) then 124'285-295 (HoD and R1). Above there is 125'020-045 (Kijun Sen Daily and mid R1-R2).
On the way down, below LoD (124'110) there is 124'050 (mid PP-S1 and former LoD) then S1 itself (124'010).

My favorite scenario : a gentle rise on Monday, a partial rotation somewhere between 124'020 and 124'028 and a drop to the 124'010-030 target.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #26 (permalink)
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UPDATE PRIOR TO THE HOUSE MARKET RELATED FIGURE RELEASE

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An upward rotation it under way and for the time being the preferred scenario is going on. .
It is to be seen whether it will go to test the resistance oblique or if the house market related figure will generate a u-turn and a partial rotation. In the latter case I am expecting the supporting oblique to be tested again and overcommed.

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Great Thread

Thanks for posting this info. I have been thinking about switching over from trading the ES.

Looking forward to learning more about your style of trading.

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  #28 (permalink)
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Is the rotation partial or will it be completed tomorrow ?

Outcry market opened with an upward gap and just after the opening tested Friday's HoD level, making a double top and was trendless in a 124'.235 -280 tange. Market ended at range lower end.

At 124.'260 POC is higher than the previous days.

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Globex 1 day result is a green candle which ends in the cloud an at MA 50D level.

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All indicators are bullish in the TU. The cloud is getting thicker, offering more support in the case of a downard pressure tomorrow.
hav
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The upward rotation is going on. Too soon to know whether it will be partial or up to the resistance oblique.
As long as the double top remains at 124'.280-285, the most likely is a downard move tomorrow.
I howver do see fast stochastics associated to the second price top lower than those associated to the first one, the sign of a possible weakness of today"s upward move.

On the resistance side, above the double top (124'.280-285) we have mid R1-R2 (125'.020-045) then daily cloud upper hedge (around 125'.125).
On the support side we have LoD (124'220) then 124'.110 (former LoD), 124'.050 (mid PP-S1) and S1 (124'.010).

As long as prices are below 124'285, I think that the most likely is a return to supporting oblique level.

Good Evening.

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  #29 (permalink)
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Outcry market opened at 124'300 (i.e. above the level for an eventual partial rotation) and immediately, upon release of the ADP data, incentive Buyers pushed prices up in good volume and gave the initial impulse for a one way market.

At 125'.150, POC is considerably higher than the previous days.

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Result is an amazing green candle, in loop belt, which spears the cloud. Shikou Span is almost above the candle line.

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At 125'.040, Tenkan Sen could be a fist support level in the case of a retracement tomorrow.

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So finally market decided to push prices to the resistance oblique and even beyond.

Would the market retrace part of the upward move tomorrow, 125'145, where there is a small HVN, could be a first level then 125'125-105 (daily cloud upper hedge and R2) and then Tenkan Sen (125'.040).
On the upward side we have mid R2-R3 (125'.235) and ifnally R3 (126'.060).

On top of important US figures, what will say the ECB may have an impact on the US bond market.

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  #30 (permalink)
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CONSOLIDATION OF WEDNESDAY UPWARD MOVE


Outcry market opened with a small upward gap, filled it then made its HoD at 125'225. At such level reactve Sellers appeared and session ended at same level Wednesday's outcry session.

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Result on a globex graphis a small red candle which retraces about 38% of the previous one and ends a shade below cloud upper hedge.

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at 125'030, Kijun Sen could be a support in the case the retracement continues tomorrow.

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I traced a squared downard broadenning structure which could very well be a continuation structure.
In the case the exit is made by above (i.e. breaking the 125'.225 horizontal resistance) minimum target is 125'.310 but it could be as much as 126'.160 by the mast rule.
MA 23 AND 44 are in support and rising.

On the way up, above 125'.225 is R1 (126.050).
On the support side, below LoD ((125'.085), Kijun Sen and MA23 are around 125.03 and then 124.275-280, the former resistance where MA 44 is also but I would be very surprised if the market goes so low tomorrow.

Good Evening.

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