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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #1 (permalink)
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

I am opening a thread dedicated to BOBL future trading.

Every post shall be organized as follows.
1. What happened during the trading day, POC and value with comparisions with the previous days and HVN's.
2. The daily graph, the 4H ICHIMOKU graph and the 4H graph with MA 23 and MA 44 and eventually some figures drafted.
3. Supports and Resistances.
4. Eventually my view and strategy for the next day.

Every week-end I will post a weekly analisis.

I hope you will find this thread interesting and useful.

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Quick Summary
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Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Zb Trader
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what is bobl ?

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Bundesobligationen (Bobls) - 5 year notes

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  #5 (permalink)
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A SECOND DAY FOR NOTHING

Market opened roughly where it closed on Thursday and shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers.
Instead Sellers entered into the market at about 9 am at 129.26 level and prices dropped to 129.10 in the course of the morning. Market was then trendless in a 129.10 - 18 range and by the end of the day session reactive Buyers pushed the prices back to opening level.

At 129.24, POC is a shade higher then Thursday, which was higher than the day before : Buyers are still on control of the market. Value is rather extended and there is no HVN.

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Result is a hammer, almost a doji, following a doji. Market seems topish.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators are bullish in this TU. Kijun Sen acted again as a support.

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On the 4H graph, I drafted an horizontal channel with 129.10 as support and 129.29 as a resistance with one spike on each side. MA23 and MA44 are still on support.

On the resistance sde, above the 129.24-27 area (POC, former HVN and HoD) there is 129.35-39 (HoY and R1) then 129.49 (mid R1-R2) and finally R2 (129.56).
On the support side, below weekly PP (129.18) there is 129.10 (LoD, mid PP-S1, former HoW and Kijun Sen) then 129.06-04 (S1 and former HoW and ifnally 128.92 (mid S1-S2).

Weekly candle is a rather big green one with a small upper shadow.
Weekly PP is at 129.18. As long as prices do stay above, logical target is R1 (129.39).
Going below 129.10 would mean an exit by below of the horizontal channel and S1 (129.04) should then be reached very fast and the green supporting oblique drafted on the 4H graph tested.

As there are no important statistics on Monday and that its US Labor Day, I am expecting a quiet and trendless day (unless of course Russian tanks are in Kiev....)

Have a nice Sunday and Monday for my US readers.

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Downard exit from a squared rising triangle

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On this 1H graph, I drafted a squared rising triangle which horizontal resistance is the 128.90 - 129.30 range upper end.

Friday's move can be analised as supporting oblique break and further pullback.

Structure's target is 128.92, as long as prices do not go above the supporting oblique. Downard acceleration is expected if prices go below 129.10.

Such event shall take place on Monday, otherwise prices will go ovex APEX and the structure will be invalidated.
A strong upward move may even occur if/when APEX is by passed by prices.

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AN UPWARD DAY IN A TINY VOLUME

Market opened at Friday closing level and explored whether some lower prices would attract Sellers, making its LoD (129.20) 2 ticks above weekly PP. At such level, reactive Buyers entered into the market, prices rose and reached 129.33 (HoD) by noon. Market was then trendless in a 129.33 - 26 range to end at HoD.

At 129.30, POC is higher than the previous days, confirming Buyer's grip on the market. There is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a rather small green candle but with a tiny volume.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators are in a bullish mode in this TU.

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Prices basically remain in the 129.10 - 30 range. The squared upward triangle visible in TU 1H is invalidated.

Above 129.35 (2x HoY) there is R1 (129.39) then mid R1-R2 (129.49) and R2 (129.46).
On the support side, 129.30 (POC and HVN) could be a first one, then the 129.20-24 area (several former POC's and HVN together with LoD and MA 23) with PP at 129.18. Below there is 12911-10 (LoW and mid PP-S1 and finally 129.06-04 (Former HoW , S1 and M A44).

Tomorrow the US will open and ISM statistic is to be released at 4 pm.

Buyers pressure is still there and may remain as long as the Ukraine situation is not stabilized.

Going above 129.35 with heavy volume will be a strong buying signal. Alternatively market failure to pay more than such figure may form a double top and a subsequent price fall.
I am expecting the market to stay within a small range before ECB rate decision and press conference on Thursday.

Good Night.

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A DOWNARD DAY

Market opened with a small downard gap and immediately incentive Sellers took the lead. By 11 am 129.19 was reached. The afternoon was trendless in a 129.18-27 range. Market may end in between.

At 7.30 pm, POC was at 129.24 and there is an HVN at 129.22 and a selling trail from 129.29 to HoD (129.32).

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Result is a small red candle with a lower shadow. Volume is important probably due to swaping positions this week from September to December.

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Prices may end below tenkan Sen. It is first warning. Shikou Span is knocking at candle sticks line and the cloud is not too thick, offering not much support in the case of a dowanrd move.

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On the 4H graph, I drafted a rising wedge. In the case of an exit by above, target is 129.60, not far from R2 (129.56).
In the case of a downard exit, 129.10-11 (MA 44 and the horizontal support of the 129.10-30 channel) is an obvious target.

Below 129.22-18 (HVN, MA 23 and LoD), next support is 129.11-10 (MA44, former LoD, PP) then 129.06-04 (former HoW and S1.
On the resistance side, over 129.27-30 (Value high end, former HVN and HoD) there is HoY 129.35, already tested once and near by R1 (129.35). Above there is mid R1-R2 (129.49) and R2 (129.56).

Tomorrow, some PMI related european statistics may bring some volatility, and in the afternoon the US factory orders. The main rendez vous is however Thursday with the ECB.

Good evening.

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129;10-11 TARGET ACHIEVED

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UKRAINE BRINGS VOLATILITY


Market opened roughly where it closed on Tuesday and was trendless when broke the news releated to a cease fire in Ukraine. Market dropped to 126.06, after a technical problem on BOBL quotation, but at such level reactive Buyers were there and a second Sellers attack down to 129.10 was not much sucessfull either. As a result, market may end not for from the opening level.

At 129.20, POC is only two ticks below Tuesday, there is an HVN at 129.18 and a buying tail from 129.06 to 11.

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Result is a hammer, almost a doji.

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The cloud did a good job as support. Tenkan Sen crossed below Kijun Sen and Shikou Span is struggling not to go below the candle line. Cloud will be very thin tomorrow, offering no much support in the case of a downard day.

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I drafted a new horizontal channel of 129.06-35 range. MA 23 is getting flatter while MA 44 is still rising.
Prices may end in the middle of the range.

On the support side we may have 129.11-10 (value lower end) then 129.06 (LoD). Below I do see 128.93 (mid S1-S2 and former HVN) thenn 128.82 (S2).
On the resistance side above 129.24 (HoD) there could be 129.30 (former HoD) then 129.35 (2 x HoY). Above there are unchartered territories, R1 (129.39), od r1-R2 (129.49) a,d R2 (129.56).

Many important US statistics and ECB rate decision and press conference : many reasons to be very cautious as there is much volatility ahead.

Take care.

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