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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #71 (permalink)
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A DAY FOR NOTHING

Market was trendless in a 127.75 - 88 range.
At 127.83, POC is about the same as the previous days.

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Result is a doji hammer. MA 50 is in support together with the cloud.

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Kijun Sen did a good job as resistance. This evening, all ICHIMOKU indicators are bearish in this TU.

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Prices are progressing in the downard channel, MA 23 almost merging with the resistance.
It is worth noting that in TU 8 hours, we have a very neat doji hammer.

There is obviously a support in the 127.75-73 area (2 x LoD). Below there is mid S1-S2 (127.65) and S2 itself at 127.57.
On the resistance side, 127. 87-89 (HoD, PP and Kijun) then 127.94 (MA 44 and a former HoD) then 127.98-00 (SSA and former HoD's) , 128.05-07 (R1, SSB and former HoD) , 128.11 (mid R1-R2 and range upper end) and finally R2 (128.19).

I am expecting a very quiet day tomorrow as well and much action from 7 pm onwards and Thursday with the FED issuing minutes of FOMC meeting. I am sure that prices will exit from today's range and I think that there is more potential on the upper side than on the lower side.

I therefore may go tomorrow to be fit for fight in the evening.

Have a nice evening.

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  #72 (permalink)
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STILL IN THE 127.70-10 RANGE

Market opened with a upward gap which was immediately filled and was trendless all day long in a 127.87 -127.78 range. During the night session, upon FOMC meeting minutes release, a spike was made at 127.69. Market closed at 127.75.

At 127.85, POC is at the same level than the previous days. Value is concentrated on the upper part of the range and there is a buying tail from 127.69 to 127.72.

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Result is a red candle. Its lower end is in contact with MA 50 and cloud upper hedge.
Shikou Span is on the verge of knocking to the candle line.

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Again Kijun Sen did a good job as resistance. All ICHIMOKU indicators are this evening in a bearish mode in this TU.

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I drafted a decreasing wedge (three points of contact on the support oblique but more than four on the resisting oblique). Target is 127.98 in the case of an upward exit and 127.30 almost the 127.27-28 double bottom) in the case of a dowanrd exit.

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On this 1 hour view, I drafted a symetric triangle within the decreasing channel. Exit has been made by below and a pullback took place. If prices do remain below the grey oblique (about 127.76 tomorrow morning) then target is 127.57 (i.e. the supporting oblique of the decreasing channel but also S2).

In the case of a downard day tomorrow, first support is 127.69-72 (LoD, S1) then 127.58 (S2). Below there is mid s2-S3 (127.44) and finally S3 (127.27).
Would the market retrace today's downard move, first resistance is value lower end (127.80) which is also Tenkan Sen then 127.84 (Kijun Sen) and 127.88 (HoD, MA44 and weekly PP).

Some statistics and a Janet Yellen's speach should bring some volatility to the market.
As long as prices are below 127.85-88 (last week POC), I will have a bearish biais in my trading.

Good Evening.

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  #73 (permalink)
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127.98 PAID


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Upward exit target achieved.


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  #74 (permalink)
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127.70-10, DOES IT RING A BELL ?

Market opened where it closed on Wednesday and after checking that prices below 127.75 would not attract Sellers, incentive Buyers took the lead and market rose to 127.92 first then 127.98-00 with a spike at 128.04 which was to be HoD. Night session may end near 127.98.

At 127.98, POC is some 12 ticks higher than the previous days and there are two HVN's, one at POC level and the other one, smaller, at 127.89.

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Result is a rather big green candle and a bullish engulfing of the four previous days. Volume is bigger than the previous days. MA 50D together with cloud's upper hedge did a good job as support. Upper shadow end is in contact with Kijun Sen.

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Shikou Span is almost above the candle line and prices are in the cloud. If prices fail to go over SSB (128.04, which is to say HoD), we may see prices ending below the cloud.

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I drafted an horizontal line at 128.04 level, in addition to the one at 128.08.
127.70 is obviously there as support. MA 44 and MA 23 are flat : it is a trendless market in a 127.70-128.10 range.

So you have it, 128.04-08 is a resistance area and 127.70-74 a support one.
Excluding some dramatic newsflow, I do not see why prices shall not remain in such range tomorrow.

Good Evening.

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  #75 (permalink)
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AT THE TOP OF 12.70-10 RANGE. WHAT'S NEXT, I DON'T KNOW.

Market opened with a downard gap and tested whether Sellers would be attract by prices below 127.91. As it was not the case, gap was filled and 128.04 paid. At such level reactive Sellers appeared and market remained trendless untill 2.30 pm when 128.04 was succesfully tested. Day session ended a tick lower than HoD (128.09).
During the night session, 128.14 was paid during what could be some frentic short coverage prior to the week-end.

At 127.99, POC is only a shade higher than the previous day and there is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a rather big green candle with decent volume. Candle's top is in contact with upper BB.

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Prices managed to exit the cloud by above. 128.04 (SSB and Tenkan Sen but also Thursday HoD) is an obvious support would some retracement occurs on Monday. All ICHIMOKU indicators are bulish in this TU.

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Prices were Friday evening at the top of the 127.70-10 range.
A new failure to go above 128.10 should make reactive Sellers more agressive and Buyers shy.
Alternativeley, an exit from the 127.70-10 range could set a new range for the week to come.

Weekly candle is green with a bare head. Weekly profile has two HVN's, one centered at 127.99 and the other one at 127.84, with a valley in between.
Weekly PP is at 127.96. Prices ended above which gives R1 (128.21) as target as long as prices do remain above PP.

Would the market retrace on Monday the rise from Thursday morning, a first support is expected at 128.04 (Former HoD, SSB and Tenkan Sen) then 127.96-99 (Weekly and Daily POC and weekly and daily HVN). Below we may have 127.89-91 (Kijun Sen, MA44 and 23 together with LoD and mid PP-S1) and finally 127.81-84 (S1 and lower weekly HVN).
On the resistance side, above HoD (128.14) there is R1 (128.21), mid R1-R2 (128.28) and finally 128.35-37 (R2 and HoY).

If Market does test in the morning the 128.04 level, I may enter long. I will refrain going short unless it becomes clear that prices paid during the Friday night session were actually frentic short covering.

Have a nice Sunday afternoon.

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  #76 (permalink)
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BACK IN THE 127.70-10 RANGE

Market opened with an upward gap which was immediately filled. Until 10 am, market explored whether prices higher than 128.10 would attract Buyers and when it was clear that the opening price level was rejected, Sellers begun to add pressure and prices declined, first to 128.03-04 and then to 127.96 which was to be LoD.
Night session may end near 128.02.

At 128.05, POC is higher than the two previous days and value is also higher : despite a downard day, Buyers are still in command. There is an HVN around POC level.

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Result is a black cloud with decent volume.


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Prices are back in the cloud and Tenkan Sen ended above prices. Kijun Sen is in support at 127.93.


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Prices are back in the 127.70-10 range. MA 44 and 23 are in the 127.90-93 and could act a support tomorrow.

On the support side we have 127.96-93 (PP, LoD, Kijun Sen and MA 23) then 127.89-90 (MA44 and mid PP-S1).
Below there is the 127.84-82 area (minor weekly HVN and S1) and finally 127.70-68 (mid S1-S2 and LoW).
On the resistance side 128.05-07 (POC, Tenkan Sen, SSB, mid PP-S1) then 128.12 (minor HVN), 128.16-18 (HoD) and finally R1 at 128.21.

Some statistics tomorrow may bring some volatility in what remains a trendless market, as shown by an almost flat MA 44.

Good Evening.

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  #77 (permalink)
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DOUBLE TOP AT 128.17 ?

Market opened where it closed on Monday and tested whether lower prices would attract Sellers. LoD was made at 127.99 and thereafter Buyers entered into the market and prices rose gently in a small volume up to 128.17.
It was to be HoD for afterwards market was trendless in a 128.10-17 range.

At 128.15, POC is higher than the previous days. Value is concentrated in the upper part of the range, giving the day a "p" shape.

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Result is a green candle inside the previous one, forming a congestion. Day volume is on the low side.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators are bullish this evening but watch out, cloud thickness is almost nil tomorrow, offering very scarce support in the case of a downard day.

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There is a possible double top at 128.17-18. Fast stochastics are lower than for the previous top.
If 128.18 is not overcommed, reactive Sellers may enter into the game.
MA 23 and 44 are in support and rising.

128.17-18 (2 x HoD) is an obvious resistance level with R1 (128.21) a shade above. Then there is mid R1-R2 (128.28) and finally 128.35-37 (R2 and HoY).
On the support side it is not so clear. Tenkan Sen (128.06) is a possible one then 127.98-99 (LoD and MA 23), 127.93 (Kijun Sen, PP and MA 44), 127.89 (mid PP-S1), 127.84-82 (HVN and S1) and finally 127.70-68 (mid S1-S2 and LoW).

There are some US statistics tomorrow and on Thursday ECB will talk. Some operators may be off market tomorrow, waiting for Mario.

Good Evening.

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  #78 (permalink)
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WAITING FOR MARIO

Market opened where it closed on Tuesday and was trendless in a tiny 128.08-16 range.

POC is at 128.10. Volume is on the low side.

Graphs are almost the same as yesterday evening. Bollinger Bands in TU 1 hour are very narrow : a big move is cooking. Which way ? "Je ne sais pas."

Supports and Resistances are almost the same as in my last post.

Fasten seat belts for a bumpy ride.


Last edited by MARS; November 5th, 2014 at 02:31 PM. Reason: clerical mistake
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  #79 (permalink)
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FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH

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On TU 1H, I drafted almost an upward squared triangle.
Target is 128.35 (i.e. R2 and HoY) if the horizontal resistance (128.16-18) is broken and 127.90 in the case of an exit by below.

As prices entered the structure by below, I am expecting an exit by above.

Good Evening.

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  #80 (permalink)
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WHO MADE MONEY TODAY ? I DID NOT.


Market opened with an upward gap which was immediately filled and remained trendless around 128.14 waiting for ECB press conference.
Prices went back and fore in a 128.20 - 04 range and ended at 128.13.

At 128.14, POC is about the same level as the previous days.

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Result is a hammer. Volume is on the low side.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators are bullish in this TU.

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Market move on ECB press conference tested support and resistance of the triangle. Prices ended inside such structure. Therefore, targets for exit are still valid : 128.35 for an exit by above and 127.90 for an exit by below.

After today's swning, where all prices between 128.04 and 128.20 were paid, I do not see any interesting level within such range.
Below 128.07-04 (2 x LoD, Kijun Sen, MM23) there is MA 44 (127.99), PP (127.93) mid PP-S1 (127.89) and S1 (127.84).
Above 128.20-21 (HoD and R1) there is mid R1-R2 (128.28) and finally 128.35-37 (HoY and R2).

There are some important US statistics tomorrow and it is to be seen whether prices will exit or not from today's range.

Good Evening.

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