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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #61 (permalink)
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STILL IN THE 127.70-10 RANGE

Further to the Chinese statistics, market opened with an upward gap which was immediately filled by reactive Sellers. After a new rejection of such opening level, Sellers took the lead and prices decreased all morning to reach 127.82 shortly after noon. It was to be LoD for market was then trendless in a 127.82-91 range.

At 127.88, POC is lower than Monday but higher than Friday. Market actually seems balanced around today's POC level. There is an HVN in the 127.83-89 area which gives the day a "d" shape.

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Result is a rather big red candle bearishly engulfing the previous one.

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Again Kijun Sen did a good job as resistance. All ICHIMOKU indicators are in a bearish mode in this TU.

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The range seems to narrow to 127.80-10 but I would not be surprised to see the market testing the 127.70 support tomorrow.

Supports and Resistances are almost the same than in my last post.

At 2.30 pm, US core retail sales and CPI shall bring some volatility to the bond markets.

Good Night.

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  #62 (permalink)
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DAY'S RANGE IS GETTING SMALLER

Market opened roughly where it closed on Tuesday and was trendless in a 127.82 - 98 range.

At 127.89, POC is at the same level than yesterday.

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Result is a small green candle.

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Not much to be guessed from this graph.

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MA44 did a good job as resistance.

On the resistance side 127.98 (HoD and MA44), then 128.07-10 (2 x HoD), R1 (128.21) and finally 128.38-40 (HoY and mid R1-R2).
On the support side 127.85-82 (3 x LoD) then 127.75-72 (mid PP-R1 and LoW) and finally S1 (127.59).

Market seems to be balanced at present level. To move from there, it will need some newsflow.
Tomorrow morning PMI's and in the afternoon US unemployment related figure may bring some volatility.

Good Evening.

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  #63 (permalink)
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STILL IN THE 127.70-128.10 RANGE


Market opened where it closed on Wednesday and after trying unsucessfully to go over the opening level Buyers gave up and incentive Sellers pushed price down to 127.82. Reactive Buyers were there and prices rose to 127.91 but as there was no follow through, Sellers came back and prices went down again at 127.82. Again reactive Buyers were there and prices rose to 127.90. Again Sellers were there and the day session ended at 127.82.
During the night session 127.77 was paid but such session ended at 127.81.

At 127.86, POC is only a shade lower than Wednesday and there are two HVN's, one in the 127.81-89 area and the other one in the 127.94-98 with a valley in between.

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Result is a red candle whitch bearishly engulfs the previous one. It is worth noting that the last four days were Green, Red, Green, Red candles. A green one tomorrow ? Fast stochastics are at bottom.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators are bearish in this TU.

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MA 23 and MA44 made the Death Cross. Fast stochastics are at bottom.

On the support side we have 127.72-82 area (mid PP-R1, LoW, LoD) and below S1 at 127.59.
On the reistance side 127.90-91 (upper end of biggest HVN) then 127.98-00 (value upper end and HoD). Above there is 128.07-10 (2 x HoD) then 128.21 R1.

There is only a minor US statistic at 4 pm so I am expecting a quiet day tomorrow, always within the 127.70-128.10 range.

Due to fast stochastics level in TU 4H and 1 Day, I think the upward potential is bigger than the downard one.

Good Evening


Last edited by MARS; October 23rd, 2014 at 06:07 PM. Reason: Clerical mistake
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  #64 (permalink)
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IN A DOWNARD WEDGE

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I drafted in TU 1H a downard wedge.
Targets are 127.34 in the case of a downard exit and 128.10 in the case of an upward one.
The most likely is an upward exit.

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  #65 (permalink)
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Dear Mars,

Thank you for this one of the most good bobl & bund futures trading view. In last post you sad about the upward exit is most likely. Why do you think so? Market looks weak and closes at low side of weekly range below weekly HVN.

Thank you.
Good trading!

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  #66 (permalink)
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rpik View Post
Dear Mars,

Thank you for this one of the most good bobl & bund futures trading view. In last post you sad about the upward exit is most likely. Why do you think so? Market looks weak and closes at low side of weekly range below weekly HVN.

Thank you.
Good trading!

Dear Rpik,

I made such statement considering that fast stochastics were at the bottom and that over 80% of the decreasing wedges exit by above.
On Friday morning the move was actually up from opening level but later reactive Sellers appeared at 127.98 (2 ticks below Thursday's HoD) and prices dropped to 127.77. Decreasing wedge exit failed and I was only right during the morning but mistaken considering the whole day.

I actually entered long after the opening, protected such long position by a stop even, sold some of such longs in the 94-98 range when I saw that there was no folow through and that prices were not far from Thursday's HoD. The remaining long position was cut at purchase price when the market dropped. I was not clever enough to reverse the long position in the 94-98 range and enjoy the fall.

Thanks for your comment. I wish you a nice trading week.

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  #67 (permalink)
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SQUARED DOWNARD BROADENNING STRUCTURE IN TU 1H;

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On TU 1H, I drafted a squared downard broadenning structure (three points of contact on the horizontal resistance and on the supporting oblique.

Target is 128.19 = R2 if prices go above 128.00 and 127.47 if prices go below 127.72.

Before Ifo in less than 10', market did a double bottom at 127.73 and rejected twice the opening level.
Exit side from IB shall give the trend for the day.

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  #68 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
Dear Rpik,

I made such statement considering that fast stochastics were at the bottom and that over 80% of the decreasing wedges exit by above.
On Friday morning the move was actually up from opening level but later reactive Sellers appeared at 127.98 (2 ticks below Thursday's HoD) and prices dropped to 127.77. Decreasing wedge exit failed and I was only right during the morning but mistaken considering the whole day.

I actually entered long after the opening, protected such long position by a stop even, sold some of such longs in the 94-98 range when I saw that there was no folow through and that prices were not far from Thursday's HoD. The remaining long position was cut at purchase price when the market dropped. I was not clever enough to reverse the long position in the 94-98 range and enjoy the fall.

Thanks for your comment. I wish you a nice trading week.

Thank you very much for answer. Good trading!

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  #69 (permalink)
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WAITING FOR JANET

Market opened where it closed on Friday and tested twice whether Sellers would be attracted by prices lower than 127.73, one tick above our old friend 127.72.
After prices made a double bottom at 127.73, incentive Buyers entered into the market and prices gradually rose to 127.94, which is to say MA44.
There reactive Sellers appeared and market may end near POC (127.86).

At 127.86, daily POC is at same level than last week weekly POC. Market is balanced at this level.
There is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a spin top. Its lower shadow is nearby MA 50.


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Kijun Sen did a good job as resistance. With the exception of Tenkan Sen, all other indicators are bearish in this TU;

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I drafted a downard channel. MA44 did again a good job as resistance and is beginning to decrease.
The squared dowanrd broadening structure presented in my last post is not invalidated, specially if a 4H candle closes above MA44. Targets are still the same : R2 (128.19) in the case of an upward exit and mid S2-S3 (127.49) in the case of a downard one.

On the resistance side we have 127.94 (HoD and MA44), then 127.98-00 (2x HoD and SSA), 128.05 (SSB),
128.10-13 (mid R1-R2) and R2 (128.19).
On the support side there is 127.73-72 (LoD and S1) then mid S1-S2 (127.65), S2 (127.59) and finally mid S2-S3 (127.45).

Tomorrow there are some US statistics but I am not expecting a big move on the market before the FED talks on Wednesday.

Good Evening.

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  #70 (permalink)
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DOWNARD CHANNEL IN A SQUARED DOWNARD BROADENING STRUCTURE


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Watch out if prices exit the downard channel by above.

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