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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #51 (permalink)
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A SECOND SMALL HAMMER

Market opened where it closed and was trendless all day long in a tiny 127.89-99 range.
During the night session, just before FOMC minutes to be released, 127.84 was reached but session ended at 127.94

At 127.94, POC is a shade higher than the two previous days and there is a buying tail from 127.84 to 127.89.

Result is a second hammer almost identical to the first one.

Prices are close to the cloud and Shikou Span is climbing along the candle line.

MA 44 did again a good job as support. The Elliot 5 wave pattern is still valid but the double top at 128.10, if market goes there, is also a possibility.

Same resistances and supports levels than in my yesterday"s post.

Tomorrow there are some US statistics that shall make prices to exit the 127.84-99 range.
My guess is by above but a 1H candle closing below MA44 (127.85 this evening) would mean that the present upward trend is in jeopardy.

Good Evening.

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  #52 (permalink)
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DOUBLE TOP

Market opened where it closed on Wednesday and after checking that lower prices were not attracting Sellers, it rose steeply to reach a shade above 127.10 prior to the US employment related figure.
Upon such release, reactive Sellers entered into the game and prices dropped fast with heavy volume. Night session ended below the opening level.

At 128.00, POC is a shade higher than wednesday. There is an HVN around POC.

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Result is a shooting star. It is worth noting that such structure could be seen on BUND, SCHATZ, 10YR TN and 2YR TN.

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Chikou Span ended below the candle line. It is a bearish sign. Tenkan Sen is above the closing. The cloud will be thinner tomorrow and I am expecting that prices will go through.

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The double top can be seen. Prices ended on MA44 level. I drafted a squared upward triangle, which oblique is made by MA44 and the horizontal resistance links the double tops.
We may very well see prices ranging tomorrow between these two lines.

Woud the market retrace part of the way from the top, 127.98-02 (POC and HVN) is a first obstacle then 128.10-13 (double top area). Above there is mid R1-R2 (128.16) and finally R2(128.26).

On the support side we do have 127.87-88 (PP, MA44, former HVN). Below our old friend 127.70 and then S1 at 127.65 and finally S2 (127.46).

No much statistics on Friday but that does not necessarly mean a quiet market.

Good NIght.

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  #53 (permalink)
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IN THE TRIANGLE


Market opened where it closed on Thursday and tested the 127.87-88 support area, making its LoD at 127.86.
When it was clear that lower prices would not attract Sellers, reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose to 128.04 which was to be HoD. After a double top was made, reactive Sellers pushed prices down back to the opening level and market was then trendless and ended at 127.98.

At 127.94, POC is some 6 ticks lower than Thursday and there is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a spin top.

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Shikou Span did not manage to go above the candle line, Tenkan Sen is above prices and the cloud will be very thin tomorrow, offering almost no support in the case of market weakness.

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MA 23 and MA 44 ar on support and do merge with the squared upward triangle supporting oblique.
Target is 127.57 in the case of breaking such support while in the case of an upward exit from the triangle (i.e. going above 128.10-13), target is 128.45.

(to be followed after my dinner)

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  #54 (permalink)
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FOLLOWING

Weekly candle is green with an upper shadow.
Weekly PP is at 127.93. Prices ended a shade above.

Regarding resistances, above HoD (128.04) there is R1 and the double top area (128.09-13) then mid R1-R2 (128.18) and R2 (128.27).

127.86-91 area (LoD, low value end, MA23 and MA44) is a first support level then 127.80 (SSB and S1) and our old friend at 127.72.

No statistics on Monday so unless there is a dramatic newsflow, I am expecting a quiet and trendless day, only good for scalpers.

Good Night.

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  #55 (permalink)
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REVERSE TREND ?

Market opened at 128.06 with a big upward gap and immediately reactive Sellers rejected such price and market dropped to 127.86. At such level some reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose to 127.93.
As there was no follow through, Sellers came back and the session may end near its lows.

At 127.85, POC is some 10 ticks lower than Friday. There is an HVN at POC level and a selling tail from 127.95 to 128.06.

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Result is a red candle engulfing the four previous ones. Volume is however on the low side.

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Prices ended at the cloud upper hedge. Tenkan Sen crossed below Kijun Sen and prices ended below these two indicators. Shikou Span is at candle line level.

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I cheated and retraced the supporting oblique of the squared upward triangle. Prices ended below MA23 and 44 which may before long make the Death Cross. Fast stochastics are at the bottom, which advocate for a rebound.

Would the market retrace part of its fall,value upper end (127.95) could be a first resistance then HoD (128.06) and finally R1 and Hoy area (128.09-13).
On the support side below 127.84-89 (LoD, POC, HVN) there is S1 and SSB (127.79-80) and then 127.72, our old friend.

Tomorrow the ZEW could bring some volatility.

Good Evening.

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  #56 (permalink)
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BACK INSIDE THE TRIANGLE

Market opened where it closed on Monday and was trendless until half an hour prior to the release of ZEW when incentive Buyers entered into the market and 18.03 was reached in 30 minutes. HoD was made at 128.07 around 1 am and was trendless in a 127.97-04 range afterwards. Market may end near its highs.

At 128.01, POC is some 15 ticks higher than Monday and there are two HVN, a big one around POC and a smaller one at 127.87 with a valley in between.

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Result is a green candle which almost swallows the previous one. Volume is bigger.

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Although thin, the cloud has been an efficient support. With the exception of Kijun Sen above Tenkan Sen, all indicators are bullish in this TU.

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A rotation towards the horizontal resistance seems underway.
I do not see why such level (128.10-13) should not be tested, with a possible triple top.

So above HoD (128.07) we have the 128.09-13 area (R1 and HoY) then mid R1-R2 (128.18) and R2 itself (128.27).
On the support side, HVN (128.01) is a first level then value low end (127.96), 127.84-85 (2xLoD) and below always our old frient 127.70-72.

Tomorrow there are important US statistics together with some 3Q results from US firms that could affect the bond markets.

Have a nice evening.

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  #57 (permalink)
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WHAOU

Market opened with a small downard gap and immediately Buyers took the lead and market rose to 128.10 level (i.e. squared upward triangle horizontal resistance) as forecasted.
Prior to the US statistics release, 128.15 had been already paid and upon the release market rocketed in heavy volume and at 128.38 reactive Sellers heavily entered into the market and prices dropped back to 128.16. Buyers came back and prices rose again to 128.30 (vs R2 at 128.27) but as there was no follow through, prices gently decreased and may end not far from 128.16.

At 128.25, POC is considerably higher than Tuesday and there is an HVN at 128.21. Volume traded is hefty but looking per half an hour, the biggest one was during the rejection of 128.38 with a bery long spike.

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Result is a big green candle with a rather long upper shadow.

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At 128.10, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are showing a level, the former squared upward triangle horizontal resistance, that may now be a support.

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128.37 paid for a 128.43 target, a bit on the short side but the rise may not be over yet.

Would a retracement occurs on Thursday, 128.10-13 is a first support level (Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen, former HoY) and below 128.07-06 (2 x former HoD's and a small HVN), then MA23 and 44 and LoD (127.97)
If the upward move continues on Thursday, 128.21-26 (HVN and POC) is a first resistance then 127.30 (Value high end), HoD (128.38), mid R2-R3 (128.43), which is also triangle upward exit target and finally R3 itself at 128.58.

Others US statistics will bring some volatiliy tomorrow.

Watch out the salloon doors.

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  #58 (permalink)
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ARE COW BOYS OK OR KO BY THE SALLOON DOORS ?

Market opened where is closed on Thursday and checked how solid was the 128.10-13 potential support level. As it holded, Buyers entered into the market and prices roses and reached 128.29 a shade before noon. At such level reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices dropped back to the opening level. After most of the US statistics were released and chewed, incentive Sellers pushed the market down, breaking the 128.10-13 level and prices fall to 127.87 were reactive Buyers made some cheap purchases. Night session ended at 127.94, which is weekly PP.

At 128.15, POC is lower than Wednesday and there are three HVN's, a big one around POC and two smaller ones, at 128.01 and 127.91.

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Result is a big red candle with an upper shadow, like yesterday, wihich makes a bearish engulfing of the previous candle.

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Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are above closing prices. Shikou Span is struggling to stay above the candle line and the cloud is so thin that it is almost non existent.

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I drafted a rising channel made with the supporting oblique of the former triangle an a paralell linking the two highs.
MA 23 and 44 are a shade above prices.

Tomorrow, would the market retrace part of the fall, a first resistance could be around 128.01 (small HVN) then 128.10-15(former resistance and support, value low end, POC and major HVN), 128.24 (Value high end), HoD (128.29) and hoY (128.37).
A first support is 127.89-84 area (LoD, former HVN 's and LoD's) then S1 (127.79) and below our old friend 127.70-72.

I have the feeling that we have seen the top of the upward move since 127.27-28 were paid on september 18th.
If the stock market recovers, we may see some money leaving the bond market, particularly the shorter maturities, to go back to stocks.

Some minor US statistics on Friday therefore and I am expecting a much quiter market than these two last days.

Good Evening.

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  #59 (permalink)
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BACK TO THE 127.70-128.10 RANGE

Market opened where it closed and shily explored whether higher prices would attract buyers. Incentive Sellers entered then into the game and prices dropped to 127.82. Market was then trendless until US statisctics release when a spike at 127.75 was made (i.e. three ticks above our old friend 127.72). Night session ended at 127.86, which is a weekly HVN.

At 127.83, POC is considerably lower than Thursday. There is an HVN in the 127.84-80 area and a value concentrated in the lower part of the range, giving the day a "d" shappe.

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Result is a hammer.

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All indicators are now in a bearish mode in this TU. The cloud remains very thin and could very well be crossed upward next week.

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I drafted an horizontal channel ranging 127.70-10. I do see the rise over 128.10 as an excess (of fear in the stock market) and BOBL is back in its range. MA 44 is above prices and flatenning. The candle before last is a doji hammer and fast stochastics are at bottom.

On a weekly basis, candle is a big red one with an upper shadow and good volume. On the BUND, its even a top doji.
Weekly PP is at 127.93. Prices ended below. If it remains so, target is S1 at 127.60. Going and staying above PP would give R1 (128.21) as target.

On the support side we have 127.75-72 (LoD, mid PP-S1 and our old friend 127.72) then S1 (127.60).
On the resistance side 127.90-93 is a first obstacle (PP, MA 44 and SSB) then 127.99-04 (weekly HVN), above 128.10 (mid PP-R1 and former resistance before the buying panic) then R1 at 128.21.

Almost no statistics on Monday so I am expecting a unsucsessfull test of the lower part of the range and a quiet day afterwards, I am even considering going .

Have a nice week-end.

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  #60 (permalink)
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STILL IN THE 127.70-10 RANGE


Market opened where it closed and almost immediately incentive Buyers took the lead and prices rose gradually to 128.07. It was to be HoD for at such level reactive Sellers entered into the game and prices dropped to 127.93 (i.e. weekly PP). There reactive Buyers were present and session ended a shade above 128.

At 127.95, POC is more than 10 ticks higher than Friday and there is a buying tail in the 127.86-90 area.

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Result is a green candle with a small upper shadow.

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Kijun Sen, at 128.05, acted as resistance. All other ICHIMOKU indicators are in a bullish mode. However, as BOBL seems to be in a trendless phase, ICHIMOKU may not be very usefull.

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Upper end of the 127.70 - 10 range has not been tested today and I am expecting such upper end to be tested before long. MA23 and 44 are almost flat. For the time being the good strategy is to buy a shade above 127.70.

Would the upper move continue tomorrow, first resistance level is 128.07-10 (HoD, Kijun Sen, mid PP-R1) then 128.21 (R1) and 128.38-40 (HoY and mid R1-R2).
On the support side there is 127.95 (POC) then 127.90-86 (buying tail area). Below there is Friday's HVN (127.84-80) then 127.70-75 (Friday's LoD, midPP-S1, and our old friend 127.72-70) and finally S1 (127.59).

A Chinese data released at 4 am could have an impact on the morning while a US statistics at 4 pm could bring some volatility in the afternoon.

Good Evening.

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