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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #41 (permalink)
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MARKET ENDS ABOVE 127.72 RESISTANCE LEVEL

Market opened where it closed on Wednesday and regularly rose all day long to end near HoD.

At 127.77, POC is higher than the previous dayx and there is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a green candle in loop belt. Associated volume is moderate.

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Prices exit the cloud by above. All indicators are in a bullish mode in this TU.

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Prices ended above127.72 (grey horizontal line) and failed to go over the red one (127.81 is HoD ,127.83 is september 8th HoD and R1 is at 127.83 as well).
MA 23 and 44 are on support and rising.
Target of the squared dowanrd broadening structure is 128.10. It is valid as long as 127.72 holds as support.

The first obstacle on the way up is 127.81-83 then 127.94-96 (HoY and R2). after there is 128.14 (mid R2-R3).
On the support side there is 127.77 (POC and HVN) then 127.72-70. A 4 hour candle closing below 127.70 would invalidate the 128.10 target.

Therefore, as long as 127.72-70 holds, I will consider lows as buying opportunities untill 128.10 is reached.
A bad behaviour of stocks market will create a flight to quality to the benefit of Notes and Bonds.

Good Evening.

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  #42 (permalink)
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AND NOW, WHAT'S NEXT ?

Market opeend where it closed and was trendless in a tiny 127.86-76 range. Despite the big drop in US Notes future contracts and associated drop of Bund future contract after US data release at 2.30 pm, the former 127.72 resistance level was not even tested.

At 127.80, POC is a shade higher than Thursday and there is an HVN at 127.82. Value lower end is higher than Thursday's and Value higher end is also higher than Thursday's : Buyers are still in control of the market.

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Result is almost a doji on top of a big green candle, at upper BB level, creating a warning for Buyers.
As long as prices are below its upper shadow end (127.86) the most likely is a retracement of the rise from 127.56 that would create an evening star. Monday session ending above 127.86 would give confort for those holing long positions.

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All indicators are bullish in this TU. The cloud is very thin early next week, offering almost no support in the case of downard pressures. At 127.68, Kijun Sen could be a support level in the case of a retracement of Thursday's green candle.

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I traced a red horizontal line between the two tops. It is worth noting that Bund future contract also made a weekly double top (at 149.71 vs 149.91).
As long as prices do remain above 127.72, squared downard broadening structure target (128.10) is still valid but 127.86 needs to be overcommed.

Weekly candle is a hammer. Weekly PP is at 127.77. Market almost ended at such level (127.83).
Going above 127.86 gives R1 as first target (127.94).
Going below 127.72 gives S1 as target (127.56).

Would the market rises on Monday first resistance is HoD (127.86) then 127.95 (R1 and HoY) and above is mid R1-R2 (128.05) not far from the squared downard broadening target.
Would the market go down on Monday, first support is 127.77-76 (PP, LoD and former HVN) then our old friend 127.72. Below there is 127.64 (mid PP-S1 and MA23) and 127.56 (S1 and MA44).

I am expecting a quiet day on Monday with market staying in a 127.72 - 86 range.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #43 (permalink)
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Reactive Buyers and Sellers on action


Market opened where it closed on Friday and explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers.
At 127.73, reactive Buyers were found and market rose to 127.87 where reactive Sellers were found.
Market may end not far from the HVN (127.83).

At 127.81, POC is about the same as Friday and there is an HVN at 127.83, to br compared with 127.81 on Friday.

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Result is likely to be a small true corpse with two small shadows, at upper BB level.
Market seems topish to me.

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All indicators are bullish in this TU.

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The red horizontal line acted as resistance. Market is actually stuck in a 127.86-72 range.

So 127.82-87 is a resistance area (2xHVN, 2xHoD) then 127.95 (R1 and HoY). Above we have 128.05.
On the support side, below (127.77-72 (2xLoD, former HVN and PP) we have 127.64 (mid PP-S1) and S1 (127.56) with MA44 in between.

On the upside, 127.87 needs to be overcommed in order to reach the squared downard broadenning target (128.05-10).
On the downside, there is no much potential as long as 127.70-72 holds.
Some European and US statistics tomorrow but the market is presently waiting for ECB to talk on Thursday.

Good Evening.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Double top at 127.95 ?

Market opened where it closed on Monday and made a low at 127.79 before rising at 127.87 upon release of european CPI. Such move was short lived and market retested the 127.79 level. As such level holded, incentive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose regularly, breaking the 127.87 resistance and going up until 127.98 was reached. Night session ended at R1 (127.95).

At 127.94, POC is much higher than Monday. Volume is bigger than the previous days.

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Result is a green candle, almost a loop belt.

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All indicators are in a bullish mode in this TU.

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I drafted a rising channel. Market ended this evening at HoY level, with a possible double top (like on the BUND at 149.71-91).
Squared dowanrd broadenning target at 128.10 is obviously still valid but 127.95-98 has to be overcommed first.

Would the market retrace tomorrow, 127.87 (former resistance) is a first possible support then 127.79-77 (LoD and former HVN). Below there is our old friend 127.72.
On the resistance side there is HoD and R1 (127.95-98) then mid R1-R2 (128.08), R2 (128.12) and mid R2-R3 (128.24).

I would not be surprised to see the market retracing part of today's rise before, eventually, going further up.

Good Evening.

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  #45 (permalink)
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128.10 PAID

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Squared downard broadenning target achieved.

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  #46 (permalink)
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SHOW ME THE TOP HONEY

Market opened where it closed and after checking whether lower prices would attract Sellers, incentive Buyers continued their purchases and prices rose regularly toalmost reach R2 and the 128.10 target, breaking the 127.96 possible double top. Session ended at HoD.

At 128.09, POC is some 20 ticks higher than Tuesday and there is an HVN at such level.

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Result is a green candle in loop belt. Associated volume is as yesterday.

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Distance between Kijun Sen and prices is not an incentive to buy before some sort of retracement is made.

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Market is clearly overheated but I would not dare to put my little money in front of such rocket...

Would the upward move continue tomorrow, we are entering into unchartered territories.
Above 128.07-13 (HVN, LoD and R2), there is mid R2-R3 (128.23) and finally R3 (128.53).
Would some sort of retracement take place, 127.91-87 is a first level (LoD, HVN and former resistance) then comes 127.79-77 (PP and former HVN) and finally our old friend 127.72-73.

Tomorrow is BCE day and I am expecting some disapointment (buy the rumour and sell the news...) but will only sell after I have some sort of confort that a top has been reached.

Good Evening

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  #47 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
Market opened where it closed and after checking whether lower prices would attract Sellers, incentive Buyers continued their purchases and prices rose regularly toalmost reach R2 and the 128.10 target, breaking the 127.96 possible double top. Session ended at HoD.

At 128.09, POC is some 20 ticks higher than Tuesday and there is an HVN at such level.

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Result is a green candle in loop belt. Associated volume is as yesterday.

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Distance between Kijun Sen and prices is not an incentive to buy before some sort of retracement is made.

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Market is clearly overheated but I would not dare to put my little money in front of such rocket...

Would the upward move continue tomorrow, we are entering into unchartered territories.
Above 128.07-13 (HVN, LoD and R2), there is mid R2-R3 (128.23) and finally R3 (128.53).
Would some sort of retracement take place, 127.91-87 is a first level (LoD, HVN and former resistance) then comes 127.79-77 (PP and former HVN) and finally our old friend 127.72-73.

Tomorrow is BCE day and I am expecting some disapointment (buy the rumour and sell the news...) but will only sell after I have some sort of confort that a top has been reached.

Good Evening

Euribor has been trading quite high so it wouldnt suprise me if the market is going downhill for a bit tomorrow. Obviously Euribor and Bobl are directly related, so we'll have to wait and see how the market is going to turn out. At the end I'm not trading what I think will happen, I'll just look at the orderflow and make decisions based upon that. It's almost strange to me to look at a Bobl chart having traded the Bobl without ever using one.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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  #48 (permalink)
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TEST OF 127.70 AND REBOUND

Market opened where it closed on Thursday and incentive Sellers continued the downard move intiated the day before. Upon release of the US unemployment related data, a spike was made at 127.70 and very soon reactive Buyers entered into the market and night session ended.

At 127.80, POC is much lower than Thursday and there is an HVN at 127.78 and a buying tail from 127.70 to 127.74.

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Result is a very neat doji hammer which lower shadow ends on Kijun Sen 20D and MA20D. Volume is in line with the previous days.

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The cloud will offer a bigger support in the coming days. Shikou Span is still over the candle line but Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are above prices and made a bearish crossing.

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MA44 did a good job as support. MA23 is now above prices and is flatenning.
If we play the Elliot 5 Waves pattern game, we can see a first wave from the double bottom to 127.70, a second one, a flat consolidation, from 127.70 to 127.52, the big wave three from 127.52 to 128.10 and we may have completed wave four, a step correction, from 128.10 to 127.70. Therefore, if prices do stay above 127.70, it is reasonnable to play the wave five which shall bring prices over 128.10.

Weekly candle is a shooting star, not far from a doji. Weekly PP is at 127.86 (i.e. where market ended Friday evening). If prices remain above, R1 (128.04) is a logical target and R2(128.27) or eventually mid R1-R2 (128.16) would be a nice end for wave five. Going below PP would give S1 (127.64) as target and going there would mean saying "au revoir" to the five wave pattern.

On Monday there are very few statistics and I would no be surprised to see the market ranging beween 127.70 and 127.90.

127.70 is an obvious support, below there is S1 (127.65) then S2(127.46) and finally the 127.27-28 double bottom, which is also mid S2-S3.
On the resistance side we may have MA 23 and HoD (127.89-90) then 127.98-02 (former HVN) and finally the 127.04-10 area (R1, former LoD and LoY).

Have a nice Sunday evening

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  #49 (permalink)
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FOR SCALPERS ONLY

Market opened where is closed on Friday and very slowly rose to make its HoD during the night session. It ended a couple of ticks lower.

At 127.89, POC is some 10 ticks higher than yesterday but at the same level than four days ago... . Volume is on the low side.

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Result is a small green candle which forms with the previous one almost a rising star.

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Prices ended above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and are climbing along cloud upper hedge. What will happen when prices will arrive at its top ?

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The Elliot 5 wave pattern is sitll valid but I have a bad feeling.

Resistances and Supports are almost sames as Friday evening.

Not much to chew tomorrow either. I am afraid market will stay quiet prior to FOMC meeting minutes release on October 8th.

Good Night.

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  #50 (permalink)
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ANOTHER DAY FOR SCRAPPERS


Market opened where it closed on Monday and was trendless all day in 127.82 - 95 range, to be compared with 1247.82-93 on Monday. Market ended at hoD during the night session;

POC is the same as yesterday (i.e. 127.89) which is also 5 trading days HVN..

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Result is a hammer.

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Still climbing but would prices wiill go downhill on the other side of cloud's top ?

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MA 44 did a good job as support and the Elliot 5 waves pattern is still underway.

Same supports and resistances as yesterday evening.

There is an BOBL aunction which result shall be issued by 11.35 am.

In the evening, FOMC minutes shall be released at cards might be reshuffled.

Good Night;

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