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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #31 (permalink)
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TGIF

No statistics expected, result of the Scotland vote is known.

Market may range trendless in a 127.29-38 range with the move already done.
I do close my book for the week and will post an analisis during the week-end.

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  #32 (permalink)
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YOU GO FISHING ?

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Prices completed today the way from the supporting oblique to the horizontal resistance.
I do not think that we will see another rotation on this one.

Was definitely not the day to go fishing.

Have a nice week -end.

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  #33 (permalink)
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GO TO 128.00 OR BACK TO 127.27 ?


Market opened with a small downard gap and briefly tested the 127.27 support, making a double bottom. Then it stayed a while around 127.34 level, Thursday HVN. When it was clear that such level would hold, Buyers entered into the market and regularly pushed prices one way up to reach HoD (127.69) at the end of the night session.

At 127.35, POC is at the same level than Thursday and there are two HVN, a big one at POC level and a smaller one at 127.57.

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Result is a big green candle making a bullish engulfing of the five previous ones. Weekly range was made in one day. Volume is moderate.

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Prices ended a shade above the cloud and all indicators are now bullish on this TU.
At 127.47, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen could be a support in the case of a retracement on Monday.

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Situation is cristal clear. Either prices manage to go and stay over 127.70., target is then 128.00 and market could go there pretty fast OR there is a new failure to break the squared downward broadening horizontal resistance and prices may go back to the 127.27 double bottom. As the market is tricky, an alternative would be a partial rotation to a support, such as 127.57 (HVN) or 127.47 (Kijun Sen) and a strong upward move breaking the 127.70 level.

Weekly candle is green and makes a penetration (i.e. goes over 50%) of the previous red candle.
PP is at 127.53. Prices ended above which gives R1 (127.78) as target.

If on Monday market retraces Friday's upward move, a first support is at 127.57-53 (HVN, MA44 and PP) then 127.47 (Kijun Sen), 127.34-33 (2xHVN) and finally 127.28-27 (2xLoD and LoW).
On the resistance side, over 127.69-70 (2xHoD and HoW) there is 127.78 (R1), 127.87 (mid R1-R2 and former HoW), then 127.96 (HoY and R2) and finally mid R2-R3 (128.14).

For early next week, my favorite scenario is a retracement to 127.57-53 level, a partial rotation and a strong upward move reaching 128.00 pretty fast. On Monday we could also see the market gapping the 127.69-70 level and going directly to the target.

Be at your trading desk before 8 am tomorrow, early birds may get a huge reward.

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  #34 (permalink)
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REJECTION AT 127.70

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We have this morning a selling tail from 127.72 to 67.
Market is now at 127.56-57, an important support level. The prefered scenario goes on.

I may enter long if 127.56-57 does hold with a close stop loss and go for the partial rotation.

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  #35 (permalink)
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TOMORROW OR NOT

Market opened with an upward gap and immediately reactive Sellers pushed prices down to 127.56, wich was to be LoD. Incidentally, 127.57-56 was the level foreseen yesterday for a possible retracement. No too bad.
Reactive Buyers entered then into the market and prices ended a shade below 127.70.

At 127.64, POC is much higher than the two previous days but similar at early past week level.
Value is concetrated between 127.64-57 and there is a selling tail from 127.72-67.

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Result is a hammer on top of a big green candle, forming a crow bar top.

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Prices entered into the cloud, which acted as support and ended outside, above SSB (127.64).
The cloud will be thicker tomorrow, giving more support to the market.Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen and all indicators are bullish in this TU.

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MA 44 did a very nice job as support. MA23 is on the verge to cross over MA44, making the Golden Cross.
I have the feeling that market only needs an ignition, such as a bad chinese, german of french PMI, to trigger a huge upward move. Squared downard broadening structure 128.10 target is obviously still valid in the case 127.70 horizontal resistance is overcommed. A failure tomorrow to go over such resistance could make Seller shyless.

A first support is at 127.64-62 (POC, SSB and HVN) then 127.57-56 (LoD, MA44, MA23 and former HVN). Below we may have PP at 127.52 and then no much before the 127.28-27 double bottom.
On the resistance side, above 127.70 there is 127.78 (R1) 127.87 (mid R1-R2 and HoW), 127.96 (HoY and R2 and finally 128.14 (mid R2-R3), which is not far from the squared downard broadenning target (128.10).

Same remark for tomorrow morning than for this morning : early birds may get a huge reward, specially if the opening is made gapping the 127.70 horizontal resistance with such gap holding, not like today.

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  #36 (permalink)
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FAILURE TO BREAK THE 127.70-72 RESISTANCE AND RETREAT

Market opened where it closed on Monday and was trendless all morning in a 127.72-63 range. Failure of the market to break the 127.70-72 level made, as predicted in Monday's post, Sellers to be shyless. Early afternoon, incentive Sellers entered into the market and prices dropped to weekly PP (127.52), which was to be LoD. At such level reactive buyers appeared and night session ended at 127.60.

At 127.66, POC is a shade higher than Monday and value is rather extended with an HVN in the 127.56-69 area.
Buyers are still in control of the market.

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Result is a red candle with a small upper shadow and a bigger lower one. Volume is moderate.

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Prices ended in the cloud with Tenkan Sen over the prices. Shikou Span is still above the candle line.

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MA44 did again a good job as support and 127.70-72 horizontal resistances holded. It is however the fourth time in few days such resistance level is tested. If prices go over, we may see a desperate and frentic short covering panic with almost no sellers.

127.54-52 (PP, LoD, MA44 and MA23) is a first support and then the double bottom at 127.27-28. Below there is S1 at 127.13 which is not far from the squared downard broadenning structure in the case of a 7th rotation.
On the resistance side 127.65-69 (HVN) could be a first obstacle then 127.70-72 (2xHoD), R1 (127.78), mid R1-R2 and HoW (127.87), HoY and R2 (127.96) and finally mid R2-R3).

PMI were not bad enough for the market to break the horizontal resistance. I have the feeling that the market took some distance from the obstacle in order to smash it easier and that the next attempt will be the good one.
Unlike this morning, we shall see good volume to be confident that such attempt will be sucessfull.

Stock market beheave badly today, if such move continues tomorrow, we may see a flight to quality towards bond market.

Good Evening.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Market in symetrical triangle visible in TU 1H.

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On TU 1H, I traced a symetrical triangle.
As market entered the triangle by below, I am expecting an exit by above. Associated target is 127.80, not far from R1 (127.78).
Going there would mean the exit from the downard squared broadenning structure by above with 128.10 as associated target.
An exit below the triangle gives a target of 127.40.

I do nothing and quietly wait for prices to exit from such triangle.

Watch out for phony exits, it usually happens on the down side.

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  #38 (permalink)
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SCALPERS PARADISE

Market opened where it closed on Tuesday, traded trendless all day in a 127.54-66 range and closed almost where it opened.

At 127.60, POC is a shade lower than the previous days and there is an HVN at 127.62.

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Result is a small candle with a very tiny true corpse and two shadows, the upper one being bigger.
Lower BB (127.40) looks to me a logical target.

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Shikou Span is on the verge of going below the candle line, prices ended below Tenkan Sen while Kijun Sen is on support, prices are in the cloud : a bit messy and confusing.

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The horizontal drift continues. Prices one day will exit from the 127.52-72 range but when and which side, I have no f..... idea.

127.66-72 is a resistance area then like yesterday.
127.54-52 is a support area, then like yesterday.

Tomorrow there are some US statistics. Market seems vulnerable to good news.

Good Evening.

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  #39 (permalink)
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SQUARED RISING TRIANGLE IN TU 30'.

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In TU 30', I do see a squared rising triangle.
Prices are presently at the horizontal resistance level.
Target is 127.78 = R1.
If such target is achieved, it would mean an exit from the squared downard broadenning structure by above and the corrseponding 128.10 target.

The US figure this afternoon shall make prices to exit the 127.52-72 range.
I am doing nothing within the range and may buy if the 127.70-72 resistance level if overcommed with volume.

Good lunch break.

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  #40 (permalink)
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127.78 TARGET ACHIEVED


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