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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #21 (permalink)
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DOWN IS THE TREND

Market opened where it closed and almost immediately, incentive Sellers took the lead and the market touched a first low at 127.50. At such level reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices went back to 127.57.
Market was then trendless during what remained of the morning.
By 1.30 pm Sellers pushed harder and prices dropped to 127.40. Such level was to be the closing.
Incidentally, symetrical triangle target was achieved and even overcomed.

At 127.41, POC is 20 ticks lower than Thursday's POC which remained virgin. There are two HVN, a big one at POC level and a smaller one at 127.54

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Result is a red candle in loop belt ending at Kijun Sen level.

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Prices are now below the cloud and shikou span is below the candle line. Market is now in a bearish mode in the TU.

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MA 23 and 44 are on the verge to make the Death Cross. I am expecting the market to test before long the 127.33-35 support level (green horieontal line).

Weekly candle is red and swallows the privous one, which was a spin top.
Weekly PP is at 127.55. As long as it remains so, target is S1 (127.27).

Would the market retraces part of its Friday's drop, first resistance is 127.54-56 (HVN, PP and value high end) then 127.61-63 (HoD, mid PP-R1 and Thursday's POC) and ifnally 127.70-72 (R1 and Thursday's HoD).
On the support side we have LoD (127.39-40) then the 127.33-35 level then S1 (127.27).

I think that on Monday, the market may either test the 127.33-35 level and/or visit the 127.39-57 range.

Have a nice week-end

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  #22 (permalink)
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RETRACEMENT

Market opened with an upward gap which was closed pretty fast then some support was found at 127.41-42 level, just above Friday's LoD. As lower prices were not attracting Sellers, Buyers entered into the market and prices rose pretty fast to 127.57. Reactive Sellers pushed prices back to 127.52 but as there was no follow through, prices rose again and may end near HoD (127.60).

At 127.55, POC is much higher than Fiday but lower than Thursday. There are two HVN, one in the 127.52-58 area and the other one, smaller, at 127.43. It is worth noting that Thursday's POC (127.62) is still virgin.

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Result is a green candle which almost retraces all Friday's one. Volume is however lower and therefore, I do not consider this candle as a reverse of the downard trend.

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Prices are above Tenkan Sen and at Kijun Sen level. Shikou Span is still below the candle line and it may be hard for it to go above. SSB is at 127.64, an important level, acting as a pivot.

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MA 44 did a good job as resistance. I do see a Head and Shoulders strcture with the neck line at 127.32-35 level.
A 4H candle closing below would give a 126.80 target, not too far from S3 (126.70).

For the time being, prices may end above weekly PP (127.55), which gives 127.70 as target.

If today's upward move continues, 127.60-64 is a first resistance level (HoD, SSB, mid PP-R1, former HoD) then 127.70 (R1 and former HoD) and above 127.83-85 (HoW, mid R1-R2).
On the support side, we first have 127.58-52 (HVN) then 127.43-39 (2xHVN and 2xLoD), below there is September 3rd low (127.32) and S1 (127.27).

ZEW at 11am and some US figures in the afternoon may bring some volatility tomorrow. I think however that prices will stay within the 127.40-70 range before FED minutes are disclosed.

Good Evening.

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  #23 (permalink)
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DECREASING WEDGE ON TU 4H


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I traced a decreasing wedge on TU 4H.
The resistance oblique was overcommed with an opening gap this morning.
Target is 127.70.
A return on 127.55-58 level should be a opportunity to take a long position.

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  #24 (permalink)
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WAITING FOR JANET

Marekt opened with a small upward gap and immediately incentive Buyers continued the upward move initiated on Monday. At 127.66 however, the move lacked of benzine and untill 3 pm, market was trendless in a 127.66-60 range. After the two US figures were released, reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices dropped to 127.50. Market may end a shade above such level.

At 127.62, POC is above those of Monday and Friday and at the same level than Thursday. There is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a red candle which forms a black cloud over the previous one. Volume is moderate.

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SSB did a good job as resistance. All ICHIMOKU indicators are this evening in a bearish mode in this TU.

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The 127.64-66 resistance level holded. The H&S structure is still valid. If, upon release of the FED's minutes, prices go below 127.37-32 support level, we may see 126.70 before the end of the week.

As already said 127.62-66 is a rather strong resistance level (2 x HoD, 2xHVN, SSB, mid PP-R1), then 127.70 (R1 and former HoD), 127.83-85 (HoW and mid R1-R2) and finally 127.96 (HoY).
On the support side we have 127.54-50 (Value low end, LoD, former HVN's) then 127.43-39 (2xLoD and former HVN), 127.32 (september 3rd LoD) and 127.27 (S1).

Be ready for everything tomorrow from 8 pm onwards and fasten seat belts, there is much volatility ahead.

Good Evening.

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  #25 (permalink)
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AN STRONG UPWARD MOVE IS COOKING

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On TU 1H, I do see a reverse H&S.
Neckline at 127.65.
Target is 127.90

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On TU 30', I do see a squared decreasing broadening structure.
Horizontal resistance was broken and the pullback is under way.
Target is 127.68 and is valid as long as prices stay above 127.58.

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  #26 (permalink)
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REFUSAL ON 127.65

Market opened where it closed on Tuesday and incentive Sellers pushed prices down. At 127.46 they met with reactive Buyers and prces rose at 127.60. Upon release of the 2.30 pm statistics, prices rose to 127.65 and day session ended at 127.61. Upon release of the FOMC meeting minutes, a spike was made at 127.68, incidentally makiing the downard squared broadening structure target but such upward move was extremely short for prices immediately dropped to 127.54. Market closed below POC level (127.55).

At 127.55, POC is in the same area as the two previous days. There is an HVN in the 127.60-63 area.

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Result is a doji.

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SSB acted again as resistance. Shikou Span rebounded on the candle line. The cloud will be a bit thicker on Thursday.

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The reverse H&S is still there but the neck line rejected prices heavily this evening.
Would prices go back to 127.40 (lower BB) the reverse H&S would be gone for good.
Usually, when a H&S fails, market reaction is wilde.

127.65 is an obvious resistance level, above there is 127.68-70 (2xHoD) then 127.83-85 (HoW and mid R1-R2) and finally HoY (127.96).
On the support side there is LoD (127.46) then 127.41-39 (2xLoD and HVN), 127.32 (September 3rd low) and
S1 (127.27).

Many US statistics on the afternoon which may eject the market from the 127.40-65 range.
My guess is an exit by below.

Good Evening.

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  #27 (permalink)
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SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE ON TU 1H.

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On TU 1H, I drafted a symetrical triangle, a somehow ambiguous structure with false exits quite often.

Notwithstanding, target is 127.90 in the case of an upward exit (the reverse H&S target) and 127.20 in the case of an exit by below.

I am expecting an attempt to exit by below, down to lower BB (127.47) but as it would be soon in the structure (i.e. far from the apex) it could be a false exit.

Have a nice trading day.

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  #28 (permalink)
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OPEN AT 127.46 AND REINTEGRATION SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE

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  #29 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
I am expecting an attempt to exit by below, down to lower BB (127.47) but as it would be soon in the structure (i.e. far from the apex) it could be a false exit.

Nice call.

Travel Well
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  #30 (permalink)
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A DOWN DAY BUT RELUCTANTLY


Market opened with at 127.47 with a downard gap and incentive Buyers pushed prices up so 127.62 was reached. It was to be HoD for at such level reactive Sellers sent prices down to 127.43 upon release of ECB LTRO related data. A big upswing happened and 127.58 was reached but as there was no follow through, Sellers came back gently first and there more agressively, pushing prices below 127.43. LoD was reached at 127.28, 1 tick higher than S1 and 4 ticks lower than September 3rd low.
At such level reactive Buyers entered into the market and prcies ended at 1127.43, close to POC level.

Incidentally symetrical triangle downard exit target was 127.20 and 127.28 was reached.

At 127.42, POC is much lower than the previous days. Value is very extended and there is an HVN at 127.34.

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Result is a top spin. Its lower shadow is in contact with lower BB. Volume is bigger than the previous days, mainly due to the volume traded at 127.34. A level to be remembered.

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All indicators are bearish in this TU. 127.47 (Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen) could be a resistance in the case of a retracement tomorrow.

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On the 4H graph, I traced a squared downard broadening structure. Prices could go back to 127.65. Going above such level would give a 128.00 target. Alternatively, we could see a partial rotation and a return to 127.27-28.
Going below the supporting oblique would give a 126.90 target.

127.34 (HVN) is an important support then below 127.27-28 (2x LoD).
On the resistance side, 127.43-47 (day pp, POC) is a first one then 127.60-62 (HoD and former HVN).
Above same resistances than on yesterday's post but as tomorrow there are no figures to be released I am expecting prices to stay within today's range and I would be surprised if market goes above 127.66.

Good Evening.

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