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BOBL FUTURE TRADING
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BOBL FUTURE TRADING

  #11 (permalink)
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DEC vs SEP

December contract is now more liquid than September.

Supports are now 127.34 (LoD), 127.25 (MD, 127.16 (S1).
Resistances 127.52 (HoD), 127.62-64 (HoD and HoY), 127.67 (R1) and 127,74 MD.

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Market is in a 127.32-62 range.

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  #12 (permalink)
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SUPER MARIO STROKE AGAIN

Market opened where it closed on Wednesday and was trendless in a tiny range prior to ECB rate anouncement at 1.45 pm Berlin time. Upon such release prices rocketed to 127.96 and at such level reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices dropped to 127.64, which is to say the previous High of the Year (HoY), forming a splendid doji in TU 4H. Market may end no far from POC and HVN (127.74).

At 127.74, POC is much higher than yesterday and there is major HVN at POC level and a small one at 127.50, with almost no volume traded in a 127.57-65 range and a selling tail above 127.85.

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Result is a big green candle with an upper shadow.

(To be followed after my dinner....)

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  #13 (permalink)
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SUPER MARIO STROKE AGAIN (following)


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The cloud offered a good support. Kijun Sen is at 127.64 (i.e. former HoW).

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We can see the nice doji. I do suspect that frantic buying interest over 127.64 was mainly due to short covering for there was no follow through. Such level may become the new support and will propably tested again tomorrow.
MA 23 and 44 are rising and in support.

First support is therefore 127.64-67 (former HoW, Kijun Sen, value lower end and R2) , 127.50 (smaller HVN) then 127.46 (LoD and Wednesday HVN).
On the resitance side we have 127.85 (selling tail lower end) then 127.97 (HoY and mid R2-R3) and finally 128.15 R3.

Tomorrow I am expecting the market to explore the range 127.64 - 85 with US unemployment data as the only important figure to be released. Ending the week below 127.64 could mean that today's desperate buying fury was maybe "le bouquet final".

Obviously, unexpected newsflow can make myy expectation totally wrong.

Good Night.

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  #14 (permalink)
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R

Market opened at 127.68 and immediately incentive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose to 127.87 where reactive Sellers appeared and prior to the US figure, prices were back to the opening level. Upon figure release market rose but it was short lived with no follow through and market ended at 127.72.

Actual range was 127.67 - 87 with 127.64 - 85 forecasted. Not too bad.
At 127.73 POC is same as Thursday (127.74) and there is an HVN at 127.75.

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Result is a shooting star. A red candle on Monday would form an evening star.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators ar bullish in 4 TU. 127.64 (Kijun Sen and week before last HoW) is an important level.

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MA 23 and 44 are in support and rising.

Weekly PP is at 127.68. Staying above gives R1 (128.02) as target.
Going below 127.64 gives S1 (127.40).

On the resistance side, above HoD (127.87) we have 127.96-02 (HoY and R1) then 128.17 (mid R1-R2) and R2 (127.30).
Below 127.67-64 (LoD, PP, Kijun Sen, HoW week before last) there is 127.52(MA44 and mid PP-S1) then S1 (127.40) and LoW (127.32).

Almost no statistics tomorrow so I am expecting a quiet trendless day.
Oonly chance to get some volatility is the newsflow.

Have a nice Sunday evening.

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  #15 (permalink)
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DOWNARD SQUARED TRIANGLE IN TU 30'

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In TU 30', I drafted a downard squared triangle. Target is 127.52 in case of an exit by below and 25 ticks upward in the case of an exit by above.

As prices do come from below, logic exit should be by above, the tirangle being in such case a continuation structure.

Watch the gap on Monday morning, if any.

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  #16 (permalink)
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A DOWN DAY AT THE END.

Market opened roughly where it closed on Friday and shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers.
At 127.79, reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices retreated to 127.68. From there reactive Buyers pushed prices upward and 127.83 was reached. It was to be HoD. At day session close, prices were close to 127.68. During the night session, incentive Sellers entered into the market and prices may near LoD (127.57 at 8 pm.)

There is an HVN at POC level (127.77), near by HVN's and POC's of the last two trading days.
Value lower end is at 127.69 and it is to be seen tomorrow morning whether closing level will be accepted as the new value by the market.

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Result is a red candle with a small upper shadow and almost no lowe one. It forms with the two previous candles an evening star, to be confirmed by a red candle tomorrow.

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Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are above prices this evening. At 127.64, Kijun Sen may act as resistance now.
Shikou Span is still above the candle line and the cloud is in support, with 127.50 area its upper hedge and SSB at 127.40 tomorrow. The cloud is getting thinner and may offer a weak support in the case of a down day tomorrow.

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Market ends at MA44 level. It is to be seen whether a rebound will take place from MA44 and in such case whether prices could go over the grey horizontal line again (i.e. 127.64).

Therefore, on the resistance side we may have 127.64 (Kijun Sen and former resistance early last week), then 127.69 (value low end), 127.74-78 (three last HVN's), 127.83-87 (two last HoD) and finally HoY (127.96).
On the support side, below 127.57-54 (MA44, LoD SSA and mid PP-S1) we may have 127.40 (SSB and S1), then 127.32 (last week LoW).

No much statistics tomorrow but it does not necesserly mean a quiet day.

Have a nice evening

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  #17 (permalink)
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Market opened a shade below Monday's LoD and explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers.
At 127.65, reactive Sellers entered into the market and pushed back prices to the opening level. Prices decreased gently untill LoD (127.48) was reached. At such level reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose to 127.60. Market may end at POC level (127.56).

POC is much lower than Monday which has not been visited and is therefore Virgin.

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Result is almost a doji butterfly, a structure I think to be of continuation (to be seen tomorrow).

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The cloud did a good job as support and Kijun Sen as resistance.
Tomorrow the cloud will be thinner. Shikou Span is knocking at the candle line. Indicators are on the verge of being all bearish in this TU.

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Market failed to go over the horizontal grey line which is again a resistance (127.65). MA 23 and 44 are horizontal.
I am expecting prices to reach lower BB (127.40) before long.

Value high end (127.59) could be a first resistance then 127.65(HoD and Kijun Sen). Above there is 127.69 (Monday's value lower end), 127.78 (Monday's HVN) and 127.83 (Monday's HoD).
On the support side, 127.48 (LoD) is the first one then 127.40 (SSB and MA 20) 127.32 (last week LoW), 127.23 (lud S1-S2) and finally S2 (127.05).

I will be strong seller if market exit from tomorrows IB by below ot below 127.48 to target 127.40 and rebounds will be considered as selling opprtunities as long as prices do remain below 127.65.

Good Evening.

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  #18 (permalink)
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UNCERTAINTY

Market opened roughly where it closed on Tuesday and by 8.30 am, Sellers entered into the market and prices gently decreased, reaching 127.44 by 10.30. It was to be LoD for at such level, reactive Buyers entered into the market and market ended at 127.56 after reaching 127.63 in a spike during the night session.

At 147.48, POC is lower than the previous day and there is an HVN at 127.47.

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Result is spin top, with lower shadow end at MA 20 level and upper shadow end at Tenkan Sen level.

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The cloud did a good job as support. Tenkan Sen crossed below Kijun Sen, Shikou Span is struggling not to go below the candle line, there is almost no cloud tomorrow. .....

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MA 23 and 44 are flat, prices are almost in the middle of the bolinger bands.
Hard to say what the next trend will be.

On the support side there is 127.48-44 (HVN, MA 20, POC, LoD) then 127.32 (last week LoW), 127.32 (mid S1-S2) and 127.05 (S2).
On the resistance side127.55 (value high end) then 127.63-65 (2 x HoD, Tenkan Sen daily, MA23), 127.69 (Tueday lower end value, Kijun Sen), 127.78 (Monday's HVN), 127.83 (Monday's HoD) then 127.87 (Friday's HoD) and finally 127.96 (HoY).

Some statistics related to price inflation in the morning and US data related to the unemployment at 2.30 pm shall bring some volatility and same price may be quoted several times in the same day.

Good Night.

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  #19 (permalink)
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TRENDLESS DAY WITH GOOD VOLATILITY

Market opened roughly where it closed on Wednesday and with good valatility was trendless in a 127.70 -57 range. Market closed where it opened.

At 127.62, POC is higher than the two previous days and there is a big HVN at POC level.

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Result is a shooting star. Prices are ranging between Tenkan Sen and MA 20.

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Prices ended between Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen and in the cloud. SSB is at 127.57. Going below would be negative as prices would go below the cloud. If the market does not rise tomorrow, Shikou Span will go below the candle line for a while.

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Prices ended just above MA44 which is flatening and are just in between bollinger bands.
Very hard to say where the market will go next.

On the resistance side, above HoD (127.70) we have 127.78 (former HVN) then 127.83-87 (2xHoD) and 127.96 (HoY).
On the support side, below 127.56 (LoD, MA44, HVN-1, SSB) there is 127.48-44 (MA20 and former HVN) the 127.32 (former LoW) 127.23 (mid S-S2) and finally S2 (127.05).

I will be keen seller if prices go below 127.56.

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  #20 (permalink)
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SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE ON 30'


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On this 30' graph, I drafted a symetrical triangle. Target is 127.76 in the case of an upward exit and 127.46 in the case of a downard one.
As it is usually a continuation structure, I think the most likely is an upward exit.
The orange Medium Average in support and rising gives some confort to such hypothesis.
I will therefore be very cautious if I do see a tentative exit by below and would strongly buy if such attempt fails.

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