The 10 Year Treasury Note - Bonds and Interest Rates Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


The 10 Year Treasury Note
Updated: Views / Replies:3,361 / 22
Created: by tderrick Attachments:12

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 12  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

The 10 Year Treasury Note

  #11 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

Do you want to buy this market ?

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


At 11 pm Paris time, that is what 10 Year T Note dayli graph looks like.
I know how it is called in French "sommet en pince" and a free english translation could be "top in crowbar".
Looks topish to me.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


On the 4H graph, I have drafted a rising wedge. Moreover, fast stochastics top related to the second market top (made on January 29th) is lower than fast stochastics top related to the first market top ( made on January 24th).

If you are long in bonds for several days, it could be wise to take part of your profits before it is too late.

I will sell if prices exit the rising wedge by below, to target lower BB of TU 4H.

Good Evening.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
madrid spain
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
Favorite Futures: None.
 
alejo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 16,557 given, 643 received

i am long 125.24.0


MARS View Post
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


At 11 pm Paris time, that is what 10 Year T Note dayli graph looks like.
I know how it is called in French "sommet en pince" and a free english translation could be "top in crowbar".
Looks topish to me.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


On the 4H graph, I have drafted a rising wedge. Moreover, fast stochastics top related to the second market top (made on January 29th) is lower than fast stochastics top related to the first market top ( made on January 24th).

If you are long in bonds for several days, it could be wise to take part of your profits before it is too late.

I will sell if prices exit the rising wedge by below, to target lower BB of TU 4H.

Good Evening.

yes you right, but i see 80.000 cts /5 min push up from 21 to 28.5, and if mkt continue down, maybe go 126.20?
thanks for youe analisys

alejo

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to alejo for this post:
 
  #13 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

STILL IN THE RISING WEDGE


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Graph in TU 1 H.

After Friday's upward market, prices are still in the rising wedge.

Target is 124'25 in the case of an exit by below and an hefty 127'13 in the case of an exit by above.

Prices are above weekly PP (the thick blue horizontal line) and MA 44 TU 4H (the orange horizontal line) which makes an exit by below not the most likely but market will do what it wants and we will follow, as ever.....

On Friday I sold near the resistance oblique and made a few bucks.

In the case of an exit by above, I will target R1 (126'06) and I will not sell prior a 1 hour candle closes below MA 44.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received

us markets did not sell-off because of emerging markets debt/currency fears

emerging market debt/currencies sold-off because of the fed's policy/narrative

every market in the world keys off the $

so when the fed manipulates the us$ and interest rates

it manipulates every currency and debt market in the world

the fed used a few rather dubious, if not misleading economic reports

as a justification to taper, but in reality it was not because

their economic growth, employment, or inflation targets had been met

the equity markets obviously realize that they tapered into weakness

but, you have to wonder if there is more to this sell-off, than a casual relationship

bonds should have broken and the curve should have flattened, as a result of reduced asset purchases

but instead rates fell...

it appears that the fed would like to see to negative real rates.

with inflation at 1-1.5% and the 10year at 2.6; we have positive real rates

which incur higher real costs because the cost of borrowing is higher than the inflation rate

negative real rates are a powerful inducement to borrow

because the borrower is paying the money back in cheaper dollars

the fed WAS trying to achieve negative real rates by attempting to ignite inflation through qe

but with a 4 trillion dollar balance sheet and nothing to show for it

le fed apparently felt they were at their limit- which is probably the real reason for the taper

instead, it appears that the fed is trying to achieve negative real rates

by getting the banks to buy bonds and lowering nominal rates instead

all the while the central banks and the bis fight to contain & suppress the price of gold


Last edited by tigertrader; February 3rd, 2014 at 12:03 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

EXIT BY ABOVE

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Graph in TU 1H.

Upon the release of a disapointing ISM figure, stocks dropped and 10 Year T Note future contract gapped the resistance oblique of the rising wedge (gap not visible on the graph).

Target is an hefty 127'16 and shall be valid as long as prices do not go below the resistance oblique of the rising wedge which shall be now a support line.

As market may not go up there in a straight line, an eventual return of prices near such line or MA 23, (this evening at 125'305) may be a buying opportunity.

I bought shortly after the gap and already sold such long position, waiting for a retracement to enter long again.

Good Evening.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
Nashville, Tennessee
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja / Jigsaw / 9G
Broker/Data: AMP / CQG
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM and ES
 
tderrick's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,589 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 4,260 given, 2,527 received

Exactly the post I was waiting for .

...WHY the the entire world appears to revolve around the US 10 year T note.

Thanks, Gary



tigertrader View Post
us markets did not sell-off because of emerging markets debt/currency fears

emerging market debt/currencies sold-off because of the fed's policy/narrative

every market in the world keys off the $

so when the fed manipulates the us$ and interest rates

it manipulates every currency and debt market in the world

the fed used a few rather dubious, if not misleading economic reports

as a justification to taper, but in reality it was not because

their economic growth, employment, or inflation targets had been met

the equity markets obviously realize that they tapered into weakness

but, you have to wonder if there is more to this sell-off, than a casual relationship

bonds should have broken and the curve should have flattened, as a result of reduced asset purchases

but instead rates fell...

it appears that the fed would like to see to negative real rates.

with inflation at 1-1.5% and the 10year at 2.6; we have positive real rates

which incur higher real costs because the cost of borrowing is higher than the inflation rate

negative real rates are a powerful inducement to borrow

because the borrower is paying the money back in cheaper dollars

the fed WAS trying to achieve negative real rates by attempting to ignite inflation through qe

but with a 4 trillion dollar balance sheet and nothing to show for it

le fed apparently felt they were at their limit- which is probably the real reason for the taper

instead, it appears that the fed is trying to achieve negative real rates

by getting the banks to buy bonds and lowering nominal rates instead

all the while the central banks and the bis fight to contain & suppress the price of gold



AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


"Life On The Edge of SR"
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tderrick for this post:
 
  #17 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

A consolidation day.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


TU 4H graph.

We can see that prices made a throwback on the former resistance of the rising wedge.
Fast stochastics seems to be on the rise again.

If the former resistance acts as a support, as we do expect, first target is 126'30 and then 127'16

The US statistics to be released tomorrow shall give the fuel for the expected rise.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #18 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

NO MORE RISING WEDGE

The US statistics did not give fuel for a further rise. At the contrary, reactive Seller entered into the market and pushed down prices.


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


On the 4 hour graph, I drafted a rising channel, as it seems this evening that market found some support at 127'26, top of the congestion which took place at the turn of January.

Obviously, the target given in my last post are obsolete.

The US data to be released Thursday and Friday shall decide the fate of the present bullish market.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #19 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received

UPWARD EXIT FROM DECREASING WEDGE

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


On this 1 hour graph, I traced a decreasing wedge (only two contacts on the support oblique but many on the resistance. The thick blue line is weekly PP. If prices remain above the red oblique target is 125'26.
A failure to stay above such oblique would send prices back to the support oblique, aroud 125'02.

US figures in 15' now.

Good luck.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to MARS for this post:
 
  #20 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: PRO REAL TIME
Broker/Data: WHS
Favorite Futures: GERMAN BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
 
MARS's Avatar
 
Posts: 553 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 42 given, 657 received


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I hope you were able to make some bucks on this one.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MARS for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > The 10 Year Treasury Note

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
$10 Trillion Withdrawn From U.S. Treasury This Fiscal Year Alone, Treasury Says Victory Trader News and Current Events 0 September 7th, 2012 01:55 PM
No Fireworks for Euro as It Reaches the 10-Year Mark Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 January 1st, 2012 11:40 AM
Italian Bond Auction: Yield on 10-Year Bonds Dips Below 7% Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 December 29th, 2011 07:10 AM
Two-Year Treasury May Hit 0%, S&P Fall Another 20%: Analyst Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 September 12th, 2011 08:10 PM
Week Ahead: Stocks Kick Off New Year on an Up Note Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 December 31st, 2010 11:50 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:12 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-14 in 0.18 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.234.255.29