To determine support/resistance areas I use a Volume Profile base upon moving 5-days periods. The last few days I have been a bit baffled because the POC for these 5-day VPs was exactly the same, exact to the tick.
I even thought of a software bug, but the daily VPs show POCs that move in a tight range so that 5-day value is probably right.
Yesterday was an inside day. Where will the Bund Future move from here? I don't know. Volume based analysis says up, stomach feeling says down.
The following user says Thank You to FGBL07 for this post:
Last week Bund traded in a very narrow range. The 5-day POC hardly changed over the last five days - currently its value is 143.10.
There was a similar situation in the last week of August - a large drop followed. But such a large drop would imply an up move in the stock markets (that happened in August) which is hard to imagine.
Stock markets have dropped strongly during the last two weeks and market internals have detoriated substantially. A little correction may be ok. But since next week is a short one (Thanksgiving on Thursday) a major up move is not very likely.
What does it mean for the Bund? It might well mean another week of range-bound trading. Not bad if you get along with it.
FGBL has started to drop. The down move started yesterday afternoon - when US markets opened. The move was on rising volume.
Stock markets had a strong performance yesterday - something I had not expected for this shortened week.
The 5-day volume profile shows a support level between 142.10 - 142.20.
Would like to see tomorrow a similar behavior to today: first an upmove (142.60? though that looks a bit much) and then down. 142.10 is not far to go and usually the market drops around 10 ticks below such support levels.
Till now the area between 142.10 - 142.20 has offered a lot of support. Today's sell-off and recovery seems to confirm this. Though I'm a bit careful about interpreting today's high volume. Next Thursday contracts will roll and people seem to have started already to roll their positions.
Technically market should rise, but a lot will depend upon political development. Euro crisis, fiscal cliff and so on.
What data feed are you using? I use DTN IQFeed and my intraday volume figures are wrong. Which extends to my Volume Profile charts.
Currently (14:45 CET) I see ~ 850000 contracts for the December Contract (BDZ12) while the daily chart for the continuous symbol (BD#) shows only half of that. IB's TWS also shows only the lower value so I guess this one is correct. Also from my experience I think the lower value is correct.
I don't know who is making the mistake. Either DTN broadcasts different values for the two symbols (of the same contract) or Sierrachart makes a calculation error.