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Market opened where it closed Wednesday and traded sideways in a 144.68-34 range, waiting for ECB press conference. Around 3 pm, massively, incentive Buyers entered into the market and make it test the 145.00 level which was succesfully defended. Market ended at 144.82.
At 144.86, POC is much higher than Wednesday and volume is much bigger than the previous days. There are two HVN's, one a shade above POC and the other one at 144.46, with almost no volume traded in the 144.60-72 area.
The two HVN do reflect the incentive Buyers and Sellers whom make the present range.
Result is a green candle which makes a congestion with the previous one.
I drafted an upward squared triangle which MA44 merging with the supporting oblique, MA 44 acting today again as support.
As the entrance in the triangle was by below, the logical exit would be by above. Unless there is a dramatic newsflow tomorrow, I think that the market may range Friday between the two HVN's. An upward over the week end gap may be needed to overcome the 145.00 resistance level.
Would the market retrace tomorrow, 144.72-60 (the area with almost no volume quoted) could be a first support. Below there is 144.46 (HVN), then 144.36-29 (MA 44 and 2xLoD) and further below 144.11-08 (S1 and a former LoD).
On the resistance side, above 144.96-98 (2 x HoD) there is R1 (145.23), mid R1-R2 (145.43) and R2 (145.65).
As there are almost no statistics tomorrow, I am expecting a quiet and trendless day, for scalpers only, where the same price level might be seen several times in the course of the trading session.
Market was trendless in a very tiny range with reactive Sellers at 145.01-03 and reactive Buyers at 144.71.
At 144.87, POC is about the same as Thursday. Volume is small. After Thursday's rise, value is accepted and market is balcanced but there is no follow through.
Result is a top spin above a big green candle.
If we look at BOBL, we can see almost a doji above a green candle, just below the resistance oblique of a rising wedge, which could mark a top, to be confirmed Monday by a red candle, forming with the two previous ones an evening star.
However, would the market open Monday with a gap over the resistance oblique, it would be a very bullish sign : if the gap holds, target would then be a whooping 126.70
Coming back to the Bund, all Ichimoku indicators are bullish. Cloud is getting thicker next week, offering some support in the case of a price weakness.
Market is knocking at the 145 horizontal resistance and MA 44 is rising. MA 23 at 144.70 was on support.
As prices are coming from below, the most likely is an upward exit from the squared upward triangle.
If on Monday, market opens with an upward gap over the 145 level and such gap holds, target of the squared upward triangle is 145.70. Alternatively, MA 44 at 144.45 may offer a good support if there is another rotation in the triangle.
On a weekly basis, the candle is a doji hammer, making a scrow bar top with the previous green candle.
It is a bearish structure, to be confirmed by a red weekly candle next week, forming an evening star.
Weekly PP is at 144.73. Prices ended 10 ticks above. As long as prices are above such level, target is R1 at 145.12.
Alternatively, S1 at 144.38 is a logical target if prices go below 144.73.
Therefore, on the support side we have 144.71-73 (LoD and PP), then 144.38-45 (a former LoD, S1, MA 44 and a former HVN) and finally the 144.62-59 level (3 x LoD).
On the resistance side, above 145.01-03 (2 x HoD), there is R1 145.12, then 145.28 (mid R1-R2) and R2 (145.45).
There are no statistics on Monday so market may only be moved by the newsflow, especially from Ukraine.
As long as prices do remain below the 145 level, I may adopt a bearish biais in my ID trading but may try to enter long at 145.45-50.
Without any significant newsflow and no statistics, market was trendless in a very tiny range. Volume is very small.
At 144.74, POC is about 10 ticks lower than Friday.
Result is a doji with no particular signification to me.
Market ranged between Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen. Shikou Span is knocking at the candle line.
Cloud will be thicker tomorrow.
Prices are in the middle of the triangle. Above the horizontal resistance, target is 145.70, below the supporting oblique, which merges with MA 44 (144.54 this evening, rising) target is 143.60. Such level is near two LoW (143.66 and 143.55) and is in the area of a supporting oblique which origin is back in March 20th (142.07-10).
I may buy above 145, be ready to take a long position near MA 44 (144.55), observing market behovior near such level would the market go there, and may sell below 144.50 with 143.80 as target.
On the resistance side, above HoD (144.84) we have 145.03 (HoY), then R1 (145.12), mid R1-R2 (145.28) and R2 (145.44).
On the support side, there is LoD (144.62), then MA44 (144.55). Below we may have 144.38-34 (former LoD and S1) then 143.97-00 (S2 and former LoD).
With ZEW and some US statistics in the afternoon, we will see prices exit from today's range.
A basic strategy could be to open a position accordingly.
Market opened rouglhy where it closed Monday and from ZEW release, incentive Buyers took the lead and gradually pushed prices up, with heavy volume in the 145 level, to bring the market at 145.33 (HoD). Market ended 7 ticks lower.
At 145.29, POC is considerably higher than the previous days and there is an HVN at such level, giving the day a "p" shape. Volume is witin the average.
Result is big green candle, almost a loop belt.
Tenka Sen, at 144.96, could be a support in the case of a retracement tomorrow.
Exit from the triangle has been by above. Prices stopped below the resistance oblique linking Feb 27th, March 3rd and March 14th tops. Triangle target is 145.80, which is to say mid R2-R3.
Would the market retrace tomorrow, 145.06 (former HoY) could be a first support with Tenkan sen just below. Then we have 144.65 (LoD and MA 44).
On the resistance side, there is R2 (145.44), then the abovementionned mid R2-R3 (145.82) and finally R3 (146.19).
In between we have the HVN at 145.26, which could be either support or resistance, depending where the market opens tomorrow.
Market opened where it closed and after briefly checking that lower prices did not attract Sellers, Buyers resume their grip on the market and pushed steadly prices to reach HoD (145.97) during the night session. Market ended some 15 ticks lower.
At 145.87, POC is considerably higher than yesterday and value is concentrated on the top of the range, giving the day a "p" shape, like yesterday : Buyers are strongly in control of the market.
Result is a second big green candle, almost a loop belt, with good volume.
Prices ended above resistance oblique of the rising channel, between yesterday and today, market made 133 ticks ! Hard to believe that it can be sustained without some sort of retracement.
Prices are very far from Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen.
Prices also very far from MA 44 and 23.
In the case the upward move continues tomorrow as it started this morning, above HoD (145.98) next resistance is R3 (146.19)
Would the market retrace, 145.64 is an interesting point. It is 23.6 fibo of the rise from 144.66 to 145.98 and it is also the lower end of today's value. 38.2 fibo is at 145.45, which is also R2 and below there is LoD and mid R2-R3(145.25) then 145.06 (former LoD and MA 23) and ifnally 144.74 (MA 44 and PP).
Some important US data in the course of the afternoon that may alter present upward trend.
