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Bund Future 16/11


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Bund Future 16/11

  #741 (permalink)
terapiaintensiva
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MARS View Post


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  #742 (permalink)
MARS
VERSAILLES FRANCE
 
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Market opened with a tiny downard gap and as soon as IB was made, incentive Sellers took the lead and send prices to a first low (143.85) at almost S1 (143.83). At such level some reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose to 144.07 but as there was no follow through, prices gently declined and a new low was made (143.80).
At such level, which was to be LoD, reactive Buyers entered into the market with big volumes and prices rocketed, first to opening level then above and session may end a shade below 144.30.

At 144.02, POC is lower than the two previous days and there are two HVN's, one around 143.86 and the other one around 144.16. Volume is much bigger than the two previous days.


Result is a hammer which has no particular meaning to me. Lower shadow's end is in contact with MA 20.



Shikou Span is still below the candle line but other indicators are bullish on this TU.


Prices are moving within the 143.50-144.50 range. I think FOMC minutes shall push prices out of such horizontal flag. As prices came into this structure by below, I am expecting an exit by above.

Many statistics tomorrow and last but not least, FOMC minutes to be released at 8 pm Berlin time.

On the support side there is PP (144.19) then 143.88-80 area (SSB, S1, LoD) and below 3xLoD in the 143.62-55 area. Below, market will exit the horizontal flag and may find support around 142.50.
On the resistance side, above HoD (144.29) there are two more LoD's (144.43 and 52) then HoY (144.64), R1 (144.78) mid R1-R2(144.95) and finally R2 (145.13).

Be cautious, there is much volatility ahead.
Good Night.

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  #743 (permalink)
MARS
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TU 1 hour.
Higher paid 125.73 for a theoretical target of 125.78.


If the reverse H&S delivers, prices shall go to 125.88. A return on the neckline (around 125.56-60) would be an opportunity to enter long with a stop below the neckline.

Good Night.

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  #744 (permalink)
meow
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Hey MARS, the FGBL is moving very slow last 2 days, are they in waiting mode as well for FOMC and US employment?

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  #745 (permalink)
MARS
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@meow

On the one side, Quarterly results delivered in the US are not bad, on the other side Russian boots' noises and US economicc retaliation threats are frightening the market : as a consequence Bonds and Bunds are trading in a narrow range.

FOMC this evening will likely bring some volatility. Enough to exit the range ? Only time will tell.

I will open a swing positon on the exit side, if made with volume.
In the meantime, scalp is the answer.

Have a good day.

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  #746 (permalink)
MARS
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On Wednesday, market opened rouglhy where it closed and after exploring whether higher prices would attract Buyers, market dropped and found reactive Buyers at 144.00. After a double bottom was made, Buyers took the lead and upon release of some US data, the pushed prices up to 144.61 at cash closing and 144.73 during the night session, upon relase of the FOMC minutes, to end at 144.64.

At 144.36, POC is higher than Tuesday and Monday's POC has been touched. There is an HVN at 144.04-09 level and another one at 144.56.


Result is a green candle with a lower shadow. Resistance oblique is around 145.00 and it shoud be tested before long.


All ICHIMOKU indicator are bullish on this TU.


Resistance oblique is around 145.15, almost R2 (145.13).


Today May 1st, EUREX futures markets are closed while CME-CBOT are open.
10YR T NOTE rose in the afternoon after the release of the unemployment claims ,which are above expectation.

I am therefore expecting the BUND future market to open with an upward gap tomorrow morning and R2 to be touched. Afterward, a rebound and the closing of the eventual gap would be an ideal scenario.

Some US data related to the employment to be released in the afternoon may or may not make such eventual gap to close. Whether opening level holds or not will be my main guidances to eventually play the gap closing.

Resistances : 144.73-78 (HoD and R1, 144.13 (R2), 145.64 (mid R2-R3).
Supports : 144.46-48 (mid R1-PP and former resistance), 144.20-00 (PP, MA 44 and LoD), 143.88 (SSB)

Enjoy your May 1st break.

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  #747 (permalink)
MARS
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Market opened roughly where it closed on Thursday and was trandless until the release of the employment related US data. Upon release, market dropped at 144.11 and at such level, which was MA 44, reactive Buyers entered into the market and not only prices gradually came back to the opening level but due to the Ukraine concerns, there was some follow through and prices went above such level, going a shade below 145.00 to end at 144.78.

At 144.62, POC is higher than Thursday and two last POC's where only visited once. Buyers are so far in control of the market. There are two HVN, one at 144.79 and the other one a shade above POC.


Result is a very neat doji hammer. It is a bearish sign as long as prices do remain below HoD (144.98).


Market is bullish in the TU.


MA 44 did a fantastic job as support. Last candle is a tombstone doji.

The weekly candle is green, with a bigger lower shadow than the upper one.
PP is at 144.49. Prices ended above which make R1 (145.22) the next target.

For next week, much depends on the newslow from Ukraine with however some important US data to be released and ECB talking on May 8th.

For Monday, would the market retrace, 144.67-63 is a first interesting area (HVN and POC) then PP (144.51) and below the strong support area 144.18-08 (MA44, S1, LoD).
On the resistance side, above HoD (144.98) there is R1 (145.22) then mid R1-R2 (145.43) and finally R2 (145.65).

It is worth noting that SCHATZ could make a triple top at 110.515. Watch such level. If such market goes above, 145.22 on the BUND will likely be paid. Alternatively, a failure for SCHATZ to go above 110.515 could trigger some selling of long positions on the German bonds markets.

Have a nice Sunday afternoon.

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  #748 (permalink)
MARS
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With London banks closed, volume traded today is almost nil and therefore this trading day is of no meaning at all.

I will therefore refrain to make its analisis.

Everything written Sunday is still valid.

Have a nice evening.

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  #749 (permalink)
MARS
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Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and after exploring whether higher prices would attract Buyers, the market met some incentive Sellers whom dropped prices at 144.40 by 10.30 am. Such level was to be LoD.
In the afternoon, reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices came back at the openening level . Night session may end not far from POC (i.e. 144.67).

At 144.67, POC is about the same than Friday (Monday is of no value for me). There is an HVN a shade below POC.
There was also one at the same level on Friday. Such level seems to be important : if market can not stay above, selling pressure may increase. Volume trade today is small


Result is almost a hammer, with not much meaning considering where it is placed.


Tenkan Sen is almost above prices. Cloud's thickness is tomorrow very thin, offering almost no support in the case of a bear market. Notwithstanding, all Ichimoku indicators are bullish in this TU.


MA 23 (144.45) was on support today, with PP not far at 144.51. It is worth noting that session may end above weekly PP.


On this 1H graph, I traced a upward broadening structure which supporting oblique merges with MA 44.
I also traced a resistance oblique which forms at the end a symetric triangle.

In the case of an exit from the triangle by below, both targets of the upward broadening structure and of the triangle is 144.08-11, which is to say S1 and a former LoD . An exit of the symetric triangle by above would give a target at 145.08, let us say R1 at 145.23 or below HoY at 144.98.

On the resistance side, Above HoD (144.78), there is 144.91-98 ( HoY), then R1 (145.23) mid R1-R2 (145.43) and R2 (145.65).
On the support side, below LoD (144.41) there is the 144.23-08 area (MA 44, S1 and a former LoD).

Some US statistics tomorrow afternoon and at 4 pm Janet may say something that could move the market, unless Wladimir speaks louder....

Good Evening

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  #750 (permalink)
MARS
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Market opened with a small upward gap, gently rose and met some reactive Sellers at 144.88 whom first closed the opening gap and pushed down harder untill MA 44 was reached (144.29) It was to be LoD. Upon Janet speach, reactive Buyers entered into the market and after going up to 144.67, market ended at 144.50.

At 144.51, POC is lower than the two previous days. There are two HVN's, one a shade below POC and the other one in the 144.75-83 area.


Result is a red candle with a lower shadow. Volume is bigger than the two previous days.


Tenkan Sen is above prices. All other Ichimoku indicators are bullish in this TU.


MA 44 again in support.

Resistances for tomorrow : 144.88-98 (3 x HoD) then R1 (145.23), Mid R1-R2 (145.23) and R2 (145.65).
Supports for tomorrow : 144.29 (LoD and MA44), 144.11-08 (S1 and LoD) and finally our old friend 144

ECB and Mario press conference tomorrow. Market could go either ways.

I will go on the morning and try to follow the market on the afternoon.


Take care.

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Last Updated on January 1, 2015


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