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Market opeend rouglhy where it closed and from the very beginning Buyers took the lead and pushed the market up until 144.51 was reached, which was to be HoD. Market ended some 20 ticks lower.
At 144.19 POC is a 30 ticks higher than Thursday and there are two HVN ,one at POC level and the other one in the 144.39-43 area.
Result is a green candle with a small upper shadow. Volumes are much lower than the previous days.
Upper BB has been touched. I have the feeling that more petrol is needed for the market to go higher and that if there is no more money flowing in, the market is vulnerable.
Shikou Span managed to go above the candle line but if market does not go upward on Monday, it may go below again.Tenkan Sen is about to cross above Kijun Sen but it is not done yet. The cloud will be thinner early next week, offering almost no support in the case of a market drop.
On the 4H graph, I traced a line at the 144.50 level. MA 23 is flat, which indicates a trendless market. Fast stochastics are at knocking on the roof. Going above the 144.50-60 level will need much volume to be successfull.
A rise above such level with small volume may be short lived and if there is no follow through, it will be a good level to short the market and target a return on the 143.60 level.
If the situation on Ukraine does not worsen, Bund market could drop dramatically and even more BOBL and SCHATZ as there are weaker.
On a weekly basis, the candle is green and makes a congestion with the two previous ones. Volume associated to such candle is smaller but we have to remember that last week was one day shorter than a normal one.
PP is at 144.20. Prices ended 10 ticks higher. As long as market remains above PP, target is R1 (144.78) which could be reached with a spike. Again, if R1 is reached with low volume, it could be an interesting shorting level.
In the case market can not stay above PP, a return to S1 (143.83) is the most likely and probably lower.
HoD (144.51) is a first resistance then 144.64 (HoY). Above there is R1 at 144.78 then R2 (145.13).
On the support side the lower HVN and POC (144.11-19) is a first support than 143.98-144.04 level (MA 23, MA44 and LoD). Below I do not see something before 143.55-62 (SSB and 3 x LoD).
Shikou Span below the candle line, prices below the cloud, MA 20 and 50 above prices together with Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen : SCHATZ is in a bearish mode in 1 day TU.
Except Tenkan Sen, all ICHIMOKU indicators are also bearish in this TU.
I traced a low slope rising channel (three contact points on each oblique).
If prices go below 110.340 without going much above 110.420, target of the Head & Shoulders (first shoulder made on April 4th at 110.415, head at 110.520 and second shoulder made on April 25th at 110.420) is at 110.160.
If I do not see prices going much above 110.420 on Monday, I may sell below such level with a stop above MA 44 to target first a return on the supporting oblique and if broken the H&S target. Diving fast stochastics from their present high level would give some confort.
Market was trendless today in a very tiny range and volume. It actually explored the valley between the two HVN's (11-19 and 35-43) made Friday and stayed within Friday's range.
At 144. 34 POC is amost the same as Friday.
Result is a top spin.
If Shikou Span is still below the candle line, Tenka Sen crossed above Kijun Sen and prices are above the latter.
Not much change from Friday evening.
144.00-10 is a first support area (2 x LoD, MA 23 and 44) then below there could be is S1 (143.83) and then 143.55-62 (3 x LoD, SSB).
On the support side, 144.43-52 (2 x HoD) is a first resistance then 144.64 (HoY), 144.78 (R1) 144.95 (mid R1-R2) and finally R2.
As written in my last post, going above the 144.50-65 area will need much more volume that what we have seen today. Not a f......idea where the market could go tomorrow. Wait & See as the guys over the channel say.
On this 1H view, I traced a squared downard broadening structure. If 125.57/60, which is to say Monday's HoD, is overcommed, target is 125.78, which is to R2.
On 4H graph, with pink glasses, you can see a reverse H&S; Neck line is our 125.57/60 level and target is 125.85, two ticks below HoY.
With the yellow arrow, I am showing the way in the case of an upward move. Notwithstanding, all ICHIMOKU indicators are bearish on this TU......
We are only at half session so the 1 day graph has not much meaning. Nevertheless, MA 50 and Kijun Sen are on support, together with the cloud and Shikou Span is, for the time being, above the candle line.
Upper BB is at 125.78 = R2 = squared dowanrd broadening structure.
Therefore, my strategy is as follows : strong buy if 125.57/60 is overcommed with volume to target R1 (125.67) then R2 (125.78).
