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Market opened with a small downard gap and made an attempt to fill it, making a high at 142.80.
From there, reactive Sellers entered into the market and pushed it down to 142.45, making the LoD.
Such level was MA 44 and not far from weekly PP (142.49)
From there, reactive Buyers entered into the market and during the afternoon, prices rose slowly back to the opening level. Before 8 pm and the release of the beige book, market hit 142.82, the HoD for the time being, and may close near such level.
At 142.61, POC is lower than the previous day, which was also lower than the day before. Sellers are in control of the market for the time being. There are no HVN's.
Candle of the day is a hammer. Its lower shadow end is above Kijun Sen and MA 20
On the ICHIMOKU 4H graph, we can see that prices managed not to enter into the cloud. Shikou span tries also to stay above the candle line. Kijun Sen is above prices. It is a bit messy but Mario shall soon clean the table.
On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 did a good job as support. MA 23 is above prices and is flat.
I drafted a square rising triangle.
Depending on what will do or not do the BCE and how Mario's speach will be received by the market, prices could either go to the horizontal resistance of the triangle (i.e. 143.40) or go below MA 44 and go to the target (141 about). Both could also happen in the same day !
On the resistance side, above HoD (142.82) we have Kijun Sen (142.88), then two former HoD (143.08 and 143.49), the latter being the horizontal resistance of the squared rising triangle, then mid R1-R2 (143.84) and finally R2 at 145.29.
On the support side we have MA 44 (142.51 tomorrow morning) then LoD and weekly PP (142.45) SSB (142.37), Kijun Sen Daily (142.31), mid PP-S1 (142.04) and finally S1 (141.58).
As prices entered into the triangle by below, we may expect an exit by above, with a 144.80 target in the case the 143.40 horizontal resistance is overcommed.
For those trading BOBL, such animal is at the end of a symetric triangle, with 126 as target in the case of an exit by above and 124.50 in the case of an exit by below.
Market opened with a small downard gap and after the IB was made, incentive Sellers pushced prices down much before the ECB rates statuo quo was officially known. Such selling pressure was at its maximum just after 2.30 pm and LoD (141.93) was reached. At such level some reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices ended at 142.25.
At 142.49, POC is lower than the previous day but not dramatically and there are three HVN, a big one at 142.53, one at POC and the last one at 142.09. There is a small buying tail from LoD to 142.
Result is a red candle with a lower shadow. MA 20 made a good job as support.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that Shikou Span is now below the candle line, prices are below the cloud, Kijun Sen end Tenkan Sen. Market is in a bearish mode in the TU.
On the 4H graph, we can see that market gapped the supporting oblique and that MA 44 is now above prices.
After the exit from the squared rising triangle by below, theoretical target is 141.40 but I will select S1 (141.58) as a practical one, prices being now below weekly PP (142.49).
On the support side, the HVN at 142.09 could be a first one, then LoD at 141.93 and further below S1 (141.58) which is both target and support.
On the resistance side, I do see many : SSB (142.36), HVN (142.53), MA 44 (142.57), HoD and Kijun Sen (142.68) and above a former HoD (142.81).
As long as prices are below, MA 44 and until S1 is not paid, I will give a bearish biais to my trading and every upward move will be treated as a shorting opportunity.
For those trading BOBL, S1 target is at 124.71.
Tomorrow there are some US data to be released at 2.30 pm and I am epxecting a shy attempt to go up and then the downard move resuming.
Market opened roughly where it closed Thursday and was trendless in a tiny range, waiting for the 2.30 pm US data. Upon its release, prices dramatically dropped and LoD (141.79) was reached. After stabilizing at such level reactive Buyers appeared. They pushed the market up and session ended at 142.25.
It is worth noting that volumes associated to the downard move are twice bigger than those related to the upward reaction on LoD.
At 142.33, POC is only a shade lower than Thursday and there are two HVN, one around POC and the other one at 141.89.
Result is almost a doji with two shadows, the lower one being longer. MA 20 is still on support while Shikou Span made a rebound on the candle line.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that SSB made a good job as resistance and that Tenkan Sen is now on support.
On the 4H graph, we can see the two long lower shadows and that MA 44 and 23 are making the Death Cross.
On a weekly basis, the candle is red and making a black cloud over the previous one.
Weekly PP is at 142.46 and as long as prices do remain below, S1 (141.50) is the target. Such level is also the target of the downard exit from the squared rising triangle visible in the 4H graph.
On the support side, we do have 141.93 (Thursday LoD) then Friday LoD (141.79) and S1 (141.50).
On the resistance side, we do have SSB/PP weekly / HoD (142.42/44/46) then Kijun Sen / MM44 / Thursday HoD (142.60/64/68) then 142.81 (former HoD) and 143.09/12 (Former HoD / R1).
It seems that the reactive buying interest of the second half of Friday afternoon was due to concerns related to the Ukrainian situation. Would such situation does not worsen, I think that the downard move may resume after, may be, some sort of consolidation. Below 142.68, I will have a negative biais in my trading.
Market opened rougly where it closed on Monday. After the IB was made, incentive Buyers pushed prices up and met with reactive Sellers at 142.68, a former HoD.
Such Sellers pushed harder when it was clear that 142.68 could be HoD and LoD was met at 142.07.
There, some reactive Buyers entered into the market. Session may end not far where it begun.
At 142.25, POC is about the same than yesterday and there is an HVN at POC level.
Result is almost a doji with long legs, following the same pattern. It shows market uncertainty. MA 20 is still rising and on support. Shikou Span is knocking at the candle line.
ICHIMOKU 4h graph does not show much interesting information.
On the 4H graph, I drafted a downard channel. MA 44 did a good job as resistance and is decreasing.
142.53 (SSB and Weekly PP) is a first resistance, then 142.68 (MA 44 and HoD), 142.81 (former HoD) and finally R1 (143.17).
On the support side, we may have 142.25 (HVN) then LoD (142.07), 141.93 (former LoD), 141.80 (former LoD) and finally S1 (141.50).
At 6pm tomorrow, BERLIN time, there is the result of a 10 years T Notes which may bring some volatiliy.
Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and immediately incentive Buyers took the lead and pushed the market upward untill HoD (143.11) was reached, not far from R1 (143.17).
At such level, reactive Sellers entered into the market which ended at 142.87.
At 142.78, POC is much higher than the previous days. There is one buying tail from 142.42 to 142.55 and one selling tail from 143.00 to 143.11.
Result is a green candle with a small upper shadow. Shikou Span rebounded on the candle line. MA 20 is still on support and rising and Kijun Sen is also below prices.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, Shikou Span managed to go over the candle line, prices are above the cloud, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen : market is in bullish mode in this TU.
On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 is now below prices. Market ended at the middle of the upward channel.
Upper daily BB (143.34) is a reasonnable target as long a prices are above 142.68.
Such level, being previously a resistance, is now the first support, below there is the 142.60-50 area (MM44, LoD, Weekly PP, SSB) then 142.07 (former LoD).
On the resistance side, we do have 143.11 (HoD) then R1 (143.17) and 143.51 (HoW).
Tomorrow, there are some US statistics which may bring some volatiliy.
As long as prices are above 142.68, I will have a bullsih biais on my trading.
Market opened rouglhy where it closed and was stuck in a tiny range, from 142.79 to 143.07 untill 3.30 pm.
Around such hour, incentive Buyers agressively entered into the market and prices rocketed to reach the resistance oblique of the rising channel visible in TU 1 day. Market ended 10 ticks below HoD (143.79)
Our upper BB target (143.34) has been overshooted
At 142.95, POC is only about 10 ticks higher than the previous day. There is an HVN in the 142.85-01 area and value is on the lower part of the range, giving the day a "d" shape.
Result is a big green candle, almost a loop belt with normal volume.
Tenkan Sen gives a support would a retracement happen tomorrow.
On the 4H graph, we can see that fast stochastics are at top and prices just below the resistance oblique.
On the resistance side there is HoD (143.79) then R2 (144.22) and mid R2-R3 (145.07).
On the support side 143..41 (former HoD and 38% retracement of the rise from 142.79), then 143.27 (Tenkan Sen and upper end of value), 142.91 (Kijun Sen and within HVN) 142.79 (LoD) and finally 142.68 (MM 44).
Tomorrow, I would expect some sort of retracement as part of the rise was short covering in a market where sellers were gone.
Market opened roughly where it closed on Thursday and after making its IB, incentive Buyers took the lead and upon release of the 1.30 pm US figures, HoD (143.97) was made. At such level, reactive Sellers entered into the market ad pushed prices down, making a first low around 3 pm, to be confirmed by LoD (143.36) before 5.30 pm fixing. Night session ended less than 10 ticks higher.
At 143.56, POC is much higher than the previous day and there is a selling tail from 143.78 to HoD (143.97).
Result is a red candle which forms a black cloud over the previous one. Volume is bigger than the previous days.
Tenkan Sen is now above prices. It is a first warning.
From HoD, market retraced 50% of the rise from 172.78. We can see the clear rebound on the resisting oblique of the low slope rising channel.
Unless there is a dramatic newsflow from Ukraine, I am expecting a trendless day tomorrow with prices ranging within 143.97 - 143.10 boundaries.
143.75/79 (former HoD and upper end of Friday's value) could be a first resistance then HoD (143.97) ad finally R1 (144.30).
On the support side there is 143.36 (LoD), 144.18 (weekly PP), 143.00 (Kijun Sen) 142.70/64 (MA44/Kijun Sen Daily).
On a weekly basis, the candle is green with two small shadows and almost swallows the previous one. Its volume is bigger. Weekly PP is at 144.18 which makes R1 (144.30) as the target as long as prices do remain above 144.18.
Market opened roughly where it closed and after exploring shily whether higher prices would attract Buyers, market market made a first low at 143.25 by mid-day. At such level some reactive Buyers entered into the market and pushed prices up to 143.46 but Sellers were still there and market ended at 143.17 after making its LoD (143.14) during the night session.
At 143.35, POC is lower than yesterday and there is an HVN in the 143.29-37 area.
Result is a small red candle, almost a top spin.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that prices ended at Kijun Sen level.
On the 4H graph, prices are almost between the two bollinger bands and at the middle of the low slope upward channel. Prices ended at MA 23 level but also at weekly PP.
On the support side, I do see, below LoD (143.14), Kijun Sen (143.07), 142.75/75, where Mid PP-S1 and MA 44 lies and finally 142.68/64 (LoD, Kijun Sen Daily and SSB).
On the resistance side, 143.29-37 (HVN and Tenkan Sen), 143.42 (high end of value), 143.55 (HoD), 143.73/79/79 (Mid PP-R1/HoD/HoD and 143.98 (HoW).
ZEW at 11 am together with some US statistics tomorrow that may bring some volatility.
With FOMC statement the day after, I am not expecting a big range for tomorrow and the same price might be visited several times.
Market traded trendless within a narrow range all day long and closed almost where it opened.
There is an HVN at POC level (143.34) which is about 10 ticks lower than yesterday.
Result is almost a doji, which could be of continuation or the end of the consolidation (of the upward move).
Only change from yesterday is that Kijun Sen is now above prices.
On the 4H graph, I traced an horizontal channel with yelllow arrows showing the remarkable points (March 3rd top, March 4th top. March 12th top, today's LoD and today's HoD).
On the resistance side, there is HVN and Kijun Sen (143.34) then two former HoD's (143.46 and 54) then HoW (143.97) and finally R1 (144.31).
On the support side there are two LoD's (143.13 an 09) then 142.81 (MA44 and mid PP-S1) , 142.68/64 (former LoD and Kijun Sen Daily) and finally S1 (142.42).
No idea what the market will do tomorrow but I know the exit from today's range may give the trend for the second half of the week, with FOMC report and Janet Yellen press conference at 7 and 7.30 pm Berlin time.
