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Volume traded today was so low that I think it is not worth making the usual market presentation.
Basically, nothing changed since Friday evening. Prices are obviously still in the same horizontal channel and just drifted horizontally, as can be seen on the 4H graph below.
Resistances levels are almost the same : HoD (143.94), Friday's HoD (144.14) , R1 and 2014 top (144.53/57) and finally 2013 top (145.09).
On the support side LoD (143.56), Fridays LoD (143.44), 143.25/27 (S1 and LoW) and 142.80 (SSB).
Release of Janet Yellen's speach at 2.30 pm (Berlin time) and especially how market will value it shall give the trend for at least the day and may be the whole week.
Take care and be cautious, there is much volatility ahead.
Market opened with a small downard gap and incentive Sellers pushed the market down to its LoD (143.38) which was reached by 9.30. Reactive Buyers entered then into the market and filled the gap, making HoD (143.69).
Market then ranged within these two limits with no trend whatsoever given by Janet Yellen testimony.
Market ended where it opened.
At 143.55, POC is a shade lower than yesterday and much more than Friday. Volume is bigger than yesterday but still lower than average.
Result is almost a doji but placed where it is, it has no particular signification.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU cloud, we can see that shikou span is below the candle line and prices are in the cloud.
An exit by below (i.e. prices lower than 143.38 = LoD) would be rather negative.
On the 4H graph, we can see that prices are still in the horizontal channel.
HoD (143.69) is a first resistance then MA 44 (143.77), Weekly PP / Monday's HoD (143.89/94),
Friday's HoD (144.14), R1/2014 top (144.54/57) and finally 2013 top (145.09)
On the support side LoD (143.38), S1/LoW (143.25/27), 142.80 (MA 20 D and upper end of former range).
On TU 1H, I do see prices in a downard channel and close to its resisting oblique.
No much more to say.
Market opened rouglhy where it closed Tuesday and after the IB was made, incentive Buyers pushed the market up and HoD was made (143.66). At such level a strong reaction happened as reactive Sellers heavily entered into the market. As a consequence, prices made a first low at 143.33.
There, reactive Buyers came and sent the market a shade below HoD. After a double top was made, it was clear that the upward potential was very limited and indeed, upon Mario Draghi's speach at 4.30 pm, market dropped and LoD (143.09) was reached during the night session.
Result is a small red candle with two small shadows.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that Bund market is in a bearish mode in this TU.
On the 4H graph, I drafted a decreasing wedge. Target is 141.80 in the case of a downard exit and 144.14 in the case of an exit by above.
Plenty of resistances would the market try to rise tomorrow : 4H SSB (143.40) Kijun Sen (143.60), MA23 and HoD (143.56/66), MA 44 (143.76), a former Hod (143.94) and another one (144.14).
On the support side, below LoD (143.09), there is MA 20 D and a former resistance and support line at 142.92, the upper range of a former horizontal channel (142.80), S1 (142.60) and S2 (142.25).
Some important US statistics tomorrow at 2.30 pm (Berlin Time) may bring some volatility.
I think that market needs to find some support before, eventually rising. If the mornings begins by a shy attempt to rise, I will look for a short position targeting 142.92. If market goes directly at such level, I will rather look for a long.
Thanks for a wonderful FGBL market view. As volume trader, I also think that the market is in moderate range balance. But my sentiment remains bearish until the market to build a platform at the bottom of the range. First signal - reposition weekly POC at (126,61) lower & staying higher relative this new POC.
Market opened with a rather big upward gap and almost immediately, incentive Buyers took the lead and pushed prices up to 143.79, rougly MA 44 level, where reactive Sellers appeared. About 1 hour prior to the US dataa to be relased at 2.30 pm Berlin time, prices are 143.64, rougly yesterday HoD.
Upward potential is 144.00 if 143.38, the opening level, is the bottom.
If 143.79 is the top, dowanrd potential is 143.30 but in such case I think the opening gap will be filled.
Volume traded so far is in line with previous mornings.
Market opened with a rather big upward gap and almost immediately, incentive Buyers took the lead and pushed prices up to 143.79, rougly MA 44 level, where reactive Sellers appeared. They sent prices down to 143.63. From there Buyers took the lead and after the US figures, sent prices to HoD (143.98). Market was afterwads trendless and ended at 143.80.
At 143.83, POC is higher than Wednesday and there are two HVN, a small one at 143.44 and a much bigger one around POC. Almost no volume traded in the 143.50-54 range.
Result is a green candle Volume is lower than average.
As market is drifting horizontally, ICHIMOKU in 4H is not of help for the time being.
On the 4H graph, I drafted an downard channel with a low slope.
Considering the level of fast stochastics, I would not be surprised to have a down day tomorrow.
On the support side we have 143.62 (MA 23 and value lower end), 143.50-54 (the non volume area with Kiju Sen at 143.52), 143.35/39 (SSB, LoD and upper range of this morning gap)., 143.09 (former LoD) and finally 142.92 (mid PP-S1 and the upper end of a former range).
On the resistance side, there is a group of recent HoD (143.99/06/14) then 144.54 (2014 top and R1) and 145.09 (2013 top).
This evening, the four first day of the trading week are forming a small hammer, following a doji. It is to be seen whether tomorrow will change this dramatically or not.
If tomorrow the opening level does not hold, I will target the market filling this morning opening gap.
Market opened rougly where it closed and probably due to the german data released at 8 am, uncentive Sellers sold the market which touched a low at 143.54, making a selling tail. From 143.54, reactive Buyers entered into the market at 143.82, a shade below the 8 am opening. Market is now at 143.66, which is POC for the time being.
If 126.80 is the top, downard potential is 143.20. Il will close Thursday opening gap (from 143.19 to 143.36).
Alternatively, if 143.54 is the bottom, upward potential is 144.30.
As per the 1H graph below, I have the feeling that 126.80 will be the top and am ready to act accordingly.
Market opened rougly where it closed Thursday and immediately, incentive Sellers pushed the market down to make a first low at 143.54. Reactive Buyer made prices going back to almost opening level but around such level Sellers where there again and pushing harder, they made market making its LoD (143.49). Reactive Buyers made prices to rise and the day ended at 143.65, which was to be POC level.
POC is lower than Thursday but higher than Wednesday.
Result is a small red candle with a small lower shadow. Volume is on the low side.
ICHIMOKU 4H graph does not bring any useful information.
On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 is decreasing. Prices are still in the deceasing channel I drafted on Thursday.
On the 1 week graph, we can see that weekly candle is a hammer, following a doji. As long as prices do remain below week before last HoW (144.57) the downard potential is higher than the upward one. Fast stochastics suggets that market is toppish.
Next week could very wel make a big red candle or another small one, depending on the newsflow.
Weekly PP is at 143.56. Prices ended nearby Friday evening.
There is quotation gap between 143.21 and 143.35. I think such gap will be filled before soon.
LoD (143.49) is a first support, then 143.35 (former LoD and upper end of the gap). Below there is
143.15/13/09( S1/ LoW/MA 20) a rather strong support and finally 142.92 (upper end of a former range)
On the resistance side we have hoD (143.84), HoW (143.98) a group of former HoD (144.06/14) and 2014 top (144.54).
As the US are closed tomorrow, I am expecting a very quiet day.
In a very tiny volume, market ranged between 143.68 and 143.33, rebounding on the upper hedge of the opening gap made on february 13th and ending rouglhy where it opened.
Nothing to change from our last post except that first resistance is today's HoD (143.68).
On the support side, first support is now LoD (143.33), which also the upper hedge of the 13th february opening gap. Below, MM 20 D is now at 143.23, making the 143.09-23 level a strong support would the market go down there.
Tomorrow morning the Zew could bring some volatiliy on the morning and a couple of US statistics on the afternoon.
The BOJ decision, prior to market opening, may have an impact as well.
