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Equities and Bonds continued to see further upside action yesterday as markets continued to unwind some of the trades seen following last week’s FOMC. European equities rallied to just beyond the highs made on the futures and options expirations day last Friday, closing in on the gaps seen on the Thursday after the FOMC day. Bunds were higher on the day, retaking the crucial 1.734% yield level. The USD however remained firm on the day overall, bucking the ‘de-tapering’ trend of other asset classes. Today sees the end of month and quarter which often sees strong flows going into the respective cash closes.
The Bund was firm on the day, taking out the 1.734% yield level and closing below here. This should mean that the recent move through here was an exhaustion capitulation and thus Bunds could keep rallying over the course of the next week. We would need to see any probes back tot his level hold. If the rally over the course of this week is a correction before another sell-off we should see the Bunds start to turn lower again either today or at the start of next week.
My apologies if bringing up an issue already addressed. If so, please point me to the posts.
At times it looks like the german and the us bonds walk hand in hand. For instance, if the us treasuries have continued to trade higher after the bund close, you can reasonably expect it to gap open higher the next morning. Any one notice anything in that context?
After a very nice break, I am back and fit for fight.
Last week candle is a red one and makes a bearish engulfing with the previous one, with a bigger volume. Gives me a bearish biais to my view of the market for next week.
Friday, prices ranged as per Thursday, in a 142.15 - 81 range.
Value is 142.35 -63 while POC is at 142.53, not very different from Thursday (142.22 - 58 and 142.40) : after wednesday downard directionnal day, the market found a balance. It is worth noting that POC for last week is 142.56.
On the 1day graph, we can see that prices are in the ICHIMOKU cloud, with shikou span below the candle level. MA 20 and 50 are about to make a crossing but prices are still below both of these MA's.
As can be seen on the 4H graph, Bund future contrat is drifting horizontally. Target is 140.50 in the case the 142.15 support is broken. Thursday's HoD (142.81) is obviously a resistance. MA 23 and 44 are above prices and made the Death Cross. Above the 142.81 resistance we will have MA 23 (143.25) and MA 44 (143.45).
No important figures to be released tomorrow therefore the market could very well Monday continue to drift horizontally around last week POC.
It is worth noting that next week PP is at 143. Future contrat ended below Friday. S1 is at 141.66 and would be a nice intermediary target would the 142.15 support fail while S2 is at 140.83, not very far from the 140.50 target.
I will end my bearish view of the market if prices close above MA 23 ut 4H
As forecasted, Bund Future contract stayed within the 142.17 - 142.75 range, a very valuable bet for those who shorted the market near 142.75 and went long above 142.17.
Actually, prices rose cautiously near the top of the range and at 142.72, wich was to be the HoD, reactive Sellers sent the market down to LoD (142.23). There reactive Buyers made prices to rise. Market ended at 142.46, almost at mid range.
Range and Value are very close to Friday ones. The POC, at 142.46 is a shade lower than Friday (142.56).
Candle of the day has two shadows and one small true corpse.
1 day graph and 4H graph are smilar to the ones posted yesterday.
The 142.17 - 75 level sees many contracts exchanged, one thing to be remembered later.
For the time being, the market is balanced and I believe only central banks could trigger the exit from the abovementionned area.
On the downard side, target are sames as yesterday.
On the upper side, 143, which is weeky PP and MA 23 UT 4H value is a first target
while 143.38, MA 44 level, the target for an upward exit from the range the Bund Future contract is stuck in.
Another day within the 142.17 - 142.72 range. It is acutally an inside day, with a value within the one of yesterday and a POC at 142.42, a price where many exchanges took place.
Market begun exploring the low side and at 142.25 reactive Buyers made price rise to HoD (142.59). Such level attracted reactive Sellers which pushed the market down to its LoD (142.23). Prices ended at POC level.
This non directional day is typical of important data expected by the market to take a new trend (here the Central Banks, the FED tomorrow and the ECB Thursday).
Targets are unchanged from yesterday. Be prepared to a severe directionnal day when the exit from the range will take place.
On these 4H graph, we can see that MA 23 is at the top end of the range, with MA 44 at 143.30 and 143, the weekly PP in between. On the support side, 141.50 (low of July 5th) is a candidate together with 141 (low of June 28th).
For tomorrow, the T BOND could be interesting to follow (as it is a FOMC day).
LTF analysis: Summer volume, market remains balanced, uncertain, reacting to news. However, we are not expanding the POC but rejecting it and building volume on extremes. It is obvious that there is no LTF action on the extremes that would finally tell which way to go.
STF analysis: Lo and weak hi established during IB. Then the buyer extended the range up only to find the immediate reaction, be rejected and sent back to building value, forming an extreme at the hi.
The IB lo held for a bit, however the value moved lower and the seller kept pushing down. The lo then gave in and the market rotated down to find buyers on the lower extreme.
Neutral day with extremes at both ends. Value area is near high, close near low. There is a little balance area with quite a lot of volume and the day close near its little VPOC. We will see if the buyer will be able to defend the low again. For now, market is still balanced.
Market opened in Friday's range, explored the high side, found reactive Sellers at 142.96, which was HoD. On the afternoon, market explored the down side and found reactive Buyers around 142.11/16 and closed not far from LoD (142.11).
POC is at 142.71 and value is a bit higher than the one of Friday. Two nodes, one at POC and the other one at 142.20 with a valley in between.
It is worth noting that POC of last week is 142.40 and that last week candle makes a bullish engulfing with the previous one.
On the 4H graph, I see a failing wedge with the MA 44 acting as oblique resistance. Prices are on the middle of the figure.
142.97 is an obvious resistance and 142.70 is a minor one. On the support side 142.16 and below the supporting oblique of the falling wedge (around 141. 50) with LoW (141.68) as a minor alternative.
Market opened within yesterday's range, explored the down side and made a buying tail which end was LoD at 141.86. Reactive Buyers sent the market to its HoD (142.28). Market then retreated under the pressure of reactive Sellers to end about POC (142.06). Volume is concentrated around such value as well.
Result is a rather narrow value and a red candle which looks like a hammer to me, as can be seen on the 1 day graph.
It is worth noting that the lower hedge of the ICHIMOKU cloud acted as a support. Shikou span is at candle line level. If prices do not go up tomorrow, Shikou span will be below the candle line.
On the 4H graph, we can see that the Bund Future are still in the middle of the failling wedge.
141.86 is an obvious support and below there is 141. 68 (LoW) and then the support oblique (around 141.50).
On the resistance side, we have the 142.50 area, where MA 23 and 44 shall be tomorrow. Above lies the oblique resistance.
For tomorrow, if 141.86 holds, I am expecting an up day. If market opens weak on a small volume, I will look for a long position. I will sell if market drops on high volume or goes below 141.86. If market opens upward with small volume I will be very cautious.
Whether the opening level holds will give a good indication on how the market could behave.
LTF analysis:
Still balanced, still summer volume, uncertain market, LTF VPOC in the middle
STF analysis:
Is it worth the analysis at all?
The market did not even respond properly to news, such an uninteresting time of the year it seems to be…
OK, market opened near the low of yesterday’s range and started to auction there accepting the lower prices, however not with much volume, everybody is either waiting on the side or laying on the beach sipping pina coladas.
The market established the initial parameters during IB, the sellers extended the range down with weak low confirmed by failed test of the high, went down a bit to find buyers who tried to extend the range up but failed due to competitive enough sellers only to go back and auction around the POC.
To cut the story short, it seems like a day with failed range extension up with initiating sellers being more active. It could mean that the market is for once again fed up with the lower extreme of the LTF balance and wants to go higher, or really test the power of buyers here and go lower a bit. The expected behavior would be up for tomorrow. So, we shall see, we shall see.
