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As for the ZB and FGBL. If I compare the two instruments, I would not say that they are equal.
A little bit equal by action will be ZN and FGBL... If you analizied bid/ask action, why you ask for indicators?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I found bid/ask info is not enough by itself, you need to find correlated or opposing markets to monitor, plus some indicators giving you another confirmation, like very extreme reading of Stochastic/RSI for example.
Perhaps you are right. and if it works for your you are double right. But I don't use correlation. Because today it works and tomorrow the u\instruments will have different action. As for Stochastic/RSI, I would not recomend this. It could work at range... but when you understnd that the range is ended?? then you get a stop....
On Friday, market rose gently on the morning and made its HoD (144.17)shortly after noon, 1 tick less than Thursday HoD.
Even before the US figure was released, prices begun to decrease and after such released, market dropped to 143.25, then rose to 143.78 and ended at 143.21, near its LoD (143.19), three ticks higher than Thursday LoD.
Result for the day is a long red candle and almost a bearish engulfing of the three previous candles. Notwithstanding, market closed above LoW. POC is at 143.98, to be compared to 143.83 Thursday and there are two volumes nodes, one at POC and the other one at 143.59 with a valley in between. On the graph we can also see that the ICHIMOKU cloud is thinner next week
Candle of the week is red but slightly smaller than the previous one and with shadows on both ends : is the downard move the Bund is in since end of April loosing momentum ?
On the 4H graph, we can see that prices are still in the 143.00 - 144.25 range as forecasted and as there are no important figures tomorrow, I am expecting the Bund to stay within such range Monday.
As Friday's POC is higher than Thursday's and even if market ended almost at LoD, I think that the valley between the two Friday's nodes will be explored tomorrow.
If markets begins the sessions by a gentle price decrease with modest volume, I will look for a long position, as long as market remains above 143. Going above opening level would give additional confort. A rise with modest volume after market opening would make me very cautious on going long. A break of the 143 support with big volumes would be a clear selling signal but it is unlikely.
Last but not least, Weekly Pivot Point is 143.46 for the week to come. Going above would be positive while staying below rather negative.
The Bund was flat to small lower on the day. The market saw whipsaw trade on the figures, however slowly gave back gains from the 144.00 handle. The sell-off in the longer end of the UST curve was the catalyst for this give back. The market outlook remains mixed, with a downside bias. If the 143.15 level gives we should see the 142.93 level tested. A close below here could trigger a seep slide over the coming days. The 144.15-44 area is key. A move back through here with a firm close would be needed to force a capitulation of shorts.
Equities were firmly higher on the day on Friday following the NFP report. Although the report was quite incisive in terms of revealing the state of the economy and future Fed actions, much of the rally was a continuation of the recovery seen form the lows made on Thursday. The USD regained some lost ground especially against the Yen, and if the Yen can continue to recover we could see further buying in equities. Bunds were fairly flat on the day, giving back much of Thursday’s gains. Commodities were mixed on the day, with industrial commodities rallying with the risk on sentiment and the metals being sold on the back of a stronger USD.
From the open level, market rose gently with modest volume untill 11 am when HoD (143.69) was reached.
From there, market dropped gradually to LoD (142.60), which was reached at 6.30 pm, breaking the support level in the 143 area with significant volume. Night session ended about 10 ticks higher. Actually, this pattern was very similar to Friday's one.
POC is at a very low142.68 and value is extended from LoD to 143.40. Sellers are still in control of the market.
As can be seen on the UT 1 Day graph, result is a big red candle with a high shadow.
On the UT 4H graph, I see the Bund future contract in a downard channel and near the support oblique.
I am expecting tomorrow the market to make a rebound and would the market explored unsucessfully the downside with modest volumes, I will look for a long.
I believe the 142.40/50 area could see some reactive Buyers to enter into the market while the 143 area is a first resistance and above today's HoD.
