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I have been following the thread for some time but posting my analyses in my own journal. Maybe I should reserve my journal for trading and post my analysis here, it might be useful for somebody looking for various views of the market .
So here I come:
We got to the balanced area high which is close to previous balanced aread POC. We met with responsive selling at the high (responsive buying at the low, too). I still favour balancing for now but we are above a quite strong zone (142.53-55) now which may serve as support and keep us from going back down for some time. Still, I did not see much interest in buying any more highs today. We will see tomorrow.
Average (!) volume and well above average range. An up day, closing above the high of last week, but the PoC did not rise very much = 141.83. An outside day (I'll avoid that other word ).
Market made a solid up move before stock markets opened and continued to make two nice zig-zag up moves till about 12:00 CET. Stock markets drifting lower during this time. At 14:00 CET (=08:00 EST) FDAX dropped 100 points within 30 minutes and bund rose accordingly. Spanish and Italian woes had risen their head again and spooked the markets into a down spiral.
The US stock market open did not bring about much change, it waited for the 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) Factory Orders report. The numbers weren't bad, but below expectation. So the down move continued. Until that time there seemed to be a chance that the pattern of Friday would repeat, but this report changed that.
Though it looks like European markets have taken down the (much bigger) US markets.
The 5-day volume profiles show a nice change of resistance to support. PoC of last 5 days (not weekly) is 141.88.
Two levels of Resistance
• 142.70
• 142.88.
Two levels of Support
• 141.88
• 142.50.
The daily volume profile shows two distinct nodes: one around 141.83, the PoC, another one around 142.37, the VAH.
Stock markets took a heavy hit today and it looks unlikely that the problems will be over tomorrow. US and European markets may split.
It is further up for the bund or maybe filling that valley between today's VAH and PoC.
Today the market opened at 142.65, a shade from to the upper limit of yesterday's range, climbed up to 142.94, very close to the resistance level given by FGBL07 (142.88) and then dropped below the opening level, rejecting the initial range of the first hour. The opening level was never to be seen again and after going down to ut 4H mean average 23 level (141.95) it ended at 142.24 above the 142.05 level but below 142.50.
POC is 142.22, lower than yesterday's (142.67) but higher than last week (141.88).
The dayli candle ends higher than the midle of last one, actually retracing about 38.2% of yesterday's rise.
On the ut 4h graph, we can see that mean average 23 is rising and supported prices. As long as such mean average is below prices and is rising, I am expecting the BUND to go back to the horizontal resistance at 143.60.
As support level I see MA 23 (at about 142 tomorrow), below 141.40 and as resistance today's top (141.95) and then 143.65.
Average volume and average range (for the last 5 days). A down day. Though the PoC of 142.20 is higher than yesterday's, in fact higher than the PoCs of last week.
Market rose in the first hour above yesterday's high and then - when stock and cash market opened - dropped to its LoD (141.94) at around 13:30 CET (= 07:30 EST) and then corrected a bit up.
ESTX and Dax show a little correction of yesterday's big drop. The ES looks really strong, it rose above yesterday's high.
The 5-day volume profiles show little change in the levels. PoC for the last 5 days is 141.88.
Three levels of Resistance
• 142.50
• 142.70
• 142.90.
One level of Support
• 141.88.
The daily chart starts to look interesting. The down channel since 2012-12-10 is still intact, but since last Wednesday (2013-01-30) we have a little up trend.
Today's volume profile has a b-shape. Most of the volume was traded around the PoC (142.20). Another node is around 142.50, the VAH. Market did not drop to yesterday's PoC (141.83).
I see only one report for Germany tomorrow (Factory Orders) at 12:00 CET (=06:00 EST).
ESTX and DAX look weak and likely to continue down. ES looks stronger and may help if it continues up.
The daily chart of the bund looks positive. Nevertheless we might get something like a sideways move because of the ECB's meeting on Thursday.
I think an up move is most likely. For this a test first of today's low/VAL would be nice.
Here is how I see the market:
We reached the previous POC and it was rejected (expected behaviour). Now we are back around the current POC. Preferred way is down, however there might be some consolidating aroung the POC, as usual.
Interesting zones:
SUPPORT
as yesterday
RESISTANCE
142.78
142.59
142.23-35 rather thinish area just below current VAH (that is where we could be balancing tomorrow).
After reading FGBL07 last post, I looked for the small rising channel on the dayli chart and I found a falling wedge with three contact points on the oblique resistance and three contact points on the oblique support.
In the case the resistance oblique is overcomed, target is 144 but mean average 50 at 143.70 today or upper bollinger band at 143.86 will do.
).
