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The Bund market begun the session climbing but with an opening gap. Therefore the 142 level could not be sustained and the gap was filled in the afternoon, after the US figures.
Most of the volume was traded in the upper part of the range, which is reflected in today's POC at 141.95, very close from the one of tuesday (141.96) and higher than the one from yesterday (141.63), which could be seen as a tentative of control of the market by the buyers.
Today's candle is a doji with long legs, which reflects market operators uncertainty.
For tomorrow, I will closely monitor market's behavior in the vicinity of today's high and low (142.17 and 141.55) and may buy or sell, depending on such behaviour.
I have the feeling that tomorrow could be a green day but with no evidence to bring to the table.
On ut 4h, we can see that the BUND escaped from the downard channel by this morning gap and that after closing the gap, the market went a little up in order to stay above the former oblique resistance of the downard chanel, which seems now to act as a support.
That is the main reason why I believe that tomorrow could be a green day.
Only time will tell but would the market go higher than 141.90 /142.10 the mean average 23 in this UT would be in support.
Obviously, above 142.20 would give more confort for taking long positions.
On the down side, below 141.50 would be negative for not only the market would go below today's low but also would be back in the downard channel.
Average volume, slightly below average range. Again a doji. Otherwise it is an up day: Close higher than yesterday's close, PoC is rising, VA above yesterday's.
Market started with a gap up and rose till around 12:00 to its HoD where demand dropped and the market started to creep lower. The 14:30 CET reports (=08:30 EST) drove it down to its LoD (141.55). The drop below yesterday's PoC (141.65) was met with demand and so the market crept up again.
The 5-day volume profiles still show resistances only. 141.20 is an old PoC from September.
• 141.88
• 142.73
• 142.93
• 143.10.
Today's PoC is 141.88, the same as for Tuesday. @MARS quotes 141.95 as PoC for both days.
There seems to be heavy supply above 142.05.
Feels like the market needs a sell-off day on high volume to move up again?
Most important report tomorrow is the NFP report at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST). This usually is a market mover and may cause fast moves of about 50 ticks. This report may change the direction of the market.
142.05 is the low of the week ending january 11th and is the lower end of such day's doji, which was to rocket the market to about 143.60 the following week.
Such level, which was at that time a support may act now as a resistance.
Average volume, slightly above average range. A down bar and a down day: Close below yesterday's and PoC (141.75) below yesterday's.
Market opened down and traded in a 30-tick range till 12:00 when the ECB announced LTRO repayment. A report I was not aware of. Banks intend to repay 3 billion, much below the expected 20 billion. Markets took this as sign of weakness: stock markets dropped and the bunds shot up immediately on high volume.
Market then drifted lower till the 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) reports. The reaction to these reports was strange: stock markets and treasuries started to move up both. The NFP report was ok, but no surprises.
Bunds moved up till their HoD (142.45, just shy of 142.50) on very high volume. This move did not feel right. The volume profile looked thin and market was pushed up and up. Looked like some algos just moving it up. When US stock markets opened the up move was over and market started to drop till the close, completely erasing all up "gain". The last half hour the volume was high - compared to its average.
PoC is show at 141.75. I'm not sure this value is correct because for quite a long time the PoC was shown as 141.85, not much different from yesterday's 141.88.
To begin with, if weekly candle was a hammer at 5.30 pm, it is at 10 pm a red spinning top with a volume above the average, near the lower bollinger band.
The daily graph looks much worse than yesterday with today's candle doing some sort of throwback on a former oblique support line. If we draw a paralell to such oblique lline, on the down side, 141 is the next target and could very well be tested monday morning.
However significant volume (above 50 000 contracts per hour) was only found on and before 5 pm so I do not know which credit shall be given to the move after the physical market closed.
POC of the week is 141.88, lower than the one of last week (142.95) and almost at the same level as POC of today (141.84).
As noter by FGBL07, there are sellers above 142.05. They seem to be reactive sellers (i.e. they sell when the market goes up but do not bring the market lower) wich is reflected by the small difference between opening and closing level for the third consecutive day.
On the 4h ut graph, we can see the former support horizontal line at 142.50, acting now as resistance and that the 44 medium average (in orange) triggered the Seller's attack. We can see also that the green support oblique, joigning 4th, 11th and 30th january lows will be at about 141 level on monday.
I am therefore expecting the market to range, during the first half of next week. between 142.50 (the level of the grey horizontal resistance line) and 141, lowest of october 18th, 2012, where reactive buyers may appear.
I take the liberty to post about BOBL in the BUND file, for the candelsticks and graphic patterns are sometimes more clear than on the BUND market.
In the weekly graphic, we can see a very neat doji with long legs that could very well be of continuation.
On the 4H graph, the Seller's attack takes the form of a doji and we can see a rising channel that could be seen as a flag.
If the support obliqe is broken, such channel will be dealt with like a flag and target will therefore be 124.600 but 125 will do as it matches with the big green oblique linking the lows since december 19th.
If the support oblique of the channel stands then the market may go back to the horizontal resistance at 126.70 and the weekly long legs doji will have to be considered as a bottom doji and not of the continuation one.
A down week, down on rising volume, but range a bit contracting.
Down since 2012-12-10 in the weekly and daily chart.
The 5-day volume profile (=weekly profile on the weekend) shows a(n almost) balanced profile: PoC at 141.88. Looks like a market in equilibrium.
Levels of resistance:
• 141.88
• 142.50
• 142.88
• 143.40.
Support at 141.20 from last September. That's a long time back and I put not too much faith into such levels.
Daily PoC is 141.75. Next (daily) level is 140.73.
Looking at the 60-minute chart Monday's high (142.53) and Friday's high (142.45) are within reach of each other. Every time this week the market moved up, it was pushed down. Friday's down move was very strong: no buyers up there.
Stock markets, especially the US Markets look very strong. Dow above 14000. And they look like they want to move up further.
Next week there are not many reports scheduled. For the Eurozone the ECB meeting on Thursday, especially the press conference at 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) will be important.
A continuation of the down move looks most likely.
The market opened outside yesterday's range at 141.48 and I thought he would go to 141 but the opening level was never challenged, very soon the market came back into friday's range and from that moment the upward move potential was unlimited. The typical rejection into the range. The market actually rocketed and ended at the highest.
On the daily graph, we see a very nice green candle, bullish engulfing of almost 5 past candles which is actually the whole last week ! Volumes are here as well. This evening, such candle makes contact with MM 20. The upper bollinger band seems a natural target (143.95).
On the 4H graph, we see that the grey oblique supported the market and that the 142.50 resistance was overcome. POC is however at 141.87 only, very close from POC of last week (141.88) and we may see tomorrow a retracement of today's rise. MM 23 is beginning to rise and will be in support would the market retrace.
Target of today's move is 143.60, the horizontal resistance of the downard enlargement with square angle the BUND is tracing since January 3rd (three contacts on the red horizontal resistance and three contacts on the green support oblique). In the case 144 is passed, target will be 146 but we are far to be there yet.
