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The crosshair marks a 30-minute bar with the highest volume for the day with following ranging bars that also have high volume compared to the uptrending 30-min bars before the fall.
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Thank you very much for the detailed description. Of course, this downside bar has a large total volume. I think this means very fast long liquidation, at any price.
I completely agree with you that the most important is the analysis of the big picture. The picture on smaller intervals must be analyzed in the context of the big picture.
Just a little note of caution, though I guess you are learning it yourself from your own trading experience.
My view is just that. A view and it is either confirmed on the given day or not.
When I trade or just watch the market, I follow the developing daily volume profile very closely to see the signs of price rejection/acceptance and even though I might start the day with a bearish bias, I might end up going long .
LTF: Uptrend, ranging at the double top, false breakout for now. I have drawn a trend line marking some of the rejected sellers
STF: Low volume on Friday this time and unfinished auction up.
We had a dip below Thursday's low, however, we seem to have optimistic buyers here. They rejected prices below the MTF range POC (150.10) by buying into MTF longs liquidating their positions near the range high.
Looking at the chart, I wonder who the buyers after 6 PM were when everybody has already gone home for Friday night out (or elsewhere)... (Desparate intraday shorts who shorted the previous range high believing the market will rotate down again who hurried out of their positions before the weekend?)
It all makes my bias bullish for tomorrow. Without having any reference areas above I will have to consider only the developing references. I will definitely watch out for the action at the volume node between 150.60 and 150.80 if the market gets there and also whether the LTF buyers appear.
STF: So no buyers appeared, we are back in the range with a fierce rejection of higher prices. We have a range POC below with rejected sellers below and we have rejected buyers above. I guess we will range today above or around the range POC. The forces seem to be even still.
Thank you for this good post. Market rejected volume accumulation around 150,68 very fast and aggressive. Yesterday we have significant accumulation at 150.29 on hourly TF, but reaction was very lite...
STF: So the LTF buyers were one day delayed. Volume significant today, rejected MTF range value with a late stop run at the end of the day. Tomorrow I will look for confirmation of the uptrend by building value higher. I will also watch closely what the sellers and buyers will do within the single prints from today.
This graph reminds me of those Tex Avery cartoons where the woolf runs over the emptyness before being aware of and falling.
More seriously prices ended below Tenkan Sen and the cloud is so thin that there is no support in the case of a downard move tomorrow;
I drafted a rising wedge; Targets are 152.30/40 in the case of an exit by above and 150.60/70 in the case of an exit by below. It is worth noting that prices made a a new high but fast stochastics didn't.
