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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #841 (permalink)
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A COUPLE OF GRAPHS

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Daily candles is included in the previous one, forming an harami.
The upward move comes to an halt, but it does not necessarly mean a reverse trend.

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Kijun Sen is in support.

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The former rising wedge resistance may act a a support in a new trading range that could very well be 149.70-150.40. MA 23 and MA44 in support and rising.

Good Night.

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  #842 (permalink)
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REBOUND ON 149.50

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Friday made almost a doji. A former resistance, around 145.50, seems to be now a support.

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Kijun Sen holds for the time being.

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The supporting oblique is the one of the former rising wedge. The new resistance oblique forms an upward broadenning structure. I am expecting a new rotation to take place and it is to be seen whether it will be completed or partial. In the latter case, a return to the supporting oblique and its breaking is to be expected.

Supports : 149.65 (low value), 149.45-38 (LoD and S1), 149.20 (mid S1-S2).
Resistances : 140.11-12 (mid R1-R2 and HoD), 150.34-42 (2xHoD and R1).

No much statistics tomorrow so I am expecting a scrapper's day.

Have a nice Sunday evening.

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  #843 (permalink)
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PMA for 06102014


LTF: Uptrend, correction

STF: We opened near the previous low on Friday and were not able to get to the previous value area, showed some accumulation near its low, and then started to build volume while moving lower.
Report sent the market further down with sellers only to be rejected. There is still some vacuum on the buy side below 149.54 so I presume we will attempt to revisit that area, however, the timeframe is unknown.
So if we remain within Friday's range, I would prefer shorts, if we get above Friday's range, I would keep shorting the highs and buying the range lows.

No major reports tomorrow.

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Successful trading.

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  #844 (permalink)
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COMPLETE OR PARTIAL ROTATION ?

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Only time will tell.

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  #845 (permalink)
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PMA for 07102014

Another mundane Monday...

LTF: Uptrend, rotation

STF: Low volume, no real swings, rotational market, no rejected sellers, no rejected buyers. I would suggest continuation to the upside to form a double top. I prefer longs above 150,08 (POC), shorts below it.

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PMA for 09102014

LTF: Uptrend, double top

STF: We had a nicely rotational day untill the settlement time but FOMC sent the market back to value.
We have rejected sellers several times and we are building value near the high. But even though the high seems a bit weak, the volume near the top is relatively low. So my guess is that even though we might probe above the current high, if the LTF buyers do not appear, any breakout will be false. We will see if it happens tomorrow. My preference is shorting and watch out for buyers near the current range POC and value area high.

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PMA for 10102014

LFT: Uptrend

STF: So we had a breakout day with above average volume. However looking more closely at 30-min interval we can see that the volume came with the market falling, not rising. That would suggest a false breakout and lots of rejected buyers. We also have a very weak low. This all suggests a continuation to the other side of the current range. Tomorrow is all meetings Friday. Volume-wise lately Fridays do not mean reduced volume or volatility so we will see if buyers appear or if sellers definitely got hold. We have still a very thick POC to overcome. If it is rejected tomorrow, I will short the market.

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  #848 (permalink)
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SHOOTING STAR

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A nice shooting star with good volume.Such pattern coud also be seen on other future bonds.
The shorter maturities look to me more exposed to the fall.

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Chikou Span knockging at candle line, drop stopped at Kijun Sen. A retracement of the drop is likely.

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MA23 and MA44 in support and rising.

Too soon to say it is a reversed trend beginning. Could also be a buying opportunity in a low of an upward trend.
We may see Buyers at 148.90-00
149.40 is 38% retracement of the drop and could be a good shorting point.

TGIF.

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About M30 short-term yesterday reversal


hadamkov View Post
LFT: Uptrend

STF: So we had a breakout day with above average volume. However looking more closely at 30-min interval we can see that the volume came with the market falling, not rising. That would suggest a false breakout and lots of rejected buyers. We also have a very weak low. This all suggests a continuation to the other side of the current range. Tomorrow is all meetings Friday. Volume-wise lately Fridays do not mean reduced volume or volatility so we will see if buyers appear or if sellers definitely got hold. We have still a very thick POC to overcome. If it is rejected tomorrow, I will short the market.

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Successful trading.

Dear hadamkov. You talk about "30-min interval we can see that the volume came with the market falling, not rising". I think you mean that yesterday was some market drop after significant volume cames in. For me, this is very significant sign of change trending to balancing.
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rpik View Post
Dear hadamkov. You talk about "30-min interval we can see that the volume came with the market falling, not rising". I think you mean that yesterday was some market drop after significant volume cames in. For me, this is very significant sign of change trending to balancing.

Thanks for a good comment, I actually did not post any 30-min chart which I realized later was confusing.

I meant this:
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The crosshair marks a 30-minute bar with the highest volume for the day with following ranging bars that also have high volume compared to the uptrending 30-min bars before the fall.

Having explained that, I guess you mean the orange POC marked on your chart which has significant volume. Here, you are absolutely right and I agree with you.

However, as I do not base my pre-market analysis for future days on a single price level, I regard your view as relevant for the given day (it is just my opinion, you may not agree based on your experience). So my view is a bit more long-term, I did not mean any significant volume at a specific price that would signal accummulation for the given day, I meant general high volume at several price levels down from the day's high that in my opinion indicate little interest in buying higher prices, i.e. more interest in selling than buying, i.e. my guess for the next days would be ranging and finally going down towards the other side of the current medium-term range.

Thanks again and sorry for lengthy explanation.

Have a good one.

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