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Would the market retrace tomorrow morning, 149.33 (HVN)and 149.17-24 (former resistance and Tenkan Sen) could be interesting points to enter long.
Possible resistance on the way up at 149.56 (former HoD) 149.70 (former HoW), 149.91 (HoY) and 150.30 (R3).
I would wait for a double top before eventually shorting the market.
Minimum target (upper daily BB) achieved.
It is to be seen whether is the top for today or not.....
Depends on the US this afternoon with final GDP figure.
STF: On Friday, the buyers appeared again in the morning and went home after taking profits near the double top, just below the single prints from the previous LTF high. The report sent the market down and we finished at the lower HVN, just on the edge of the daily VA.
We are still above the high of the little range formed between Sept. 23-24 (149.25) with a LVN above at (149.53-56) and a strong POC at 149.61. Buyers were rejected several times on Friday and we have quite a weak low so I would expect continuation in moving down. But it all depends on the strength of both sides tomorrow. Monday is usually less traded these days but we will see.
Prelim CPI tomorrow may stir the market a bit again.
STF: So we have formed a little balance near the double top. Sellers appeared and overcame the yesterday's weak low, however not for long. We have rejected sellers at the bottom and rejected buyers at the top, no real large time-frame players yet and a few minor reports + CPI tomorrow. If we open within today's range, I would not be suprised if we continue balancing if the reports do not stir the market and if real LTF sellers and buyers do not appear.
STF: Today's move was very similar to yesterday and we have now created a three-day range. However there is one big difference compared tomorrow which is volume (thanks to the CPI). We have a significant HVN near the top which would suggest continuation, even though there were no real buyers today at the top and we still have the single prints from the end of August.
So given the current uptrend and if buyers appear near the top tomorrow my bias is more bullish or ranging back.
Bund Auction tomorrow.
On TU 4H, I do see a rising wedge which supporting oblique merges with MA23.
In the case of a downard exit, lower BB and MA44(around 148.90) are a natural target.
An exit by above would give an hefty 150.50 target;
It is worth noting that prices are making a new high while fast stochastics do not.
STF: Buyers kept on rolling. We have four distributions, the top one is the thickest and largest, volume, single prints at the high, all that suggest we are still bullish. ECB press conference may bring more volatility. Single prints below 150.10 may (and may not) serve as support.
STF: We had a lovely ranging day. Buyers got rejected several times, sellers as well but less. We have a high volume node defined between 149.80 (S) and 150.30 (R) approximately. Tomorrow is Friday and German bank holiday so we might range a bit before weekend. Any unrejected sellers below S and we are short, heading back to previous range but I suspect this will not be the case tomorrow (but can be proven wrong). We might also keep on building volume near the high in order to get even higher.
