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Prices ended at MA 44 level, which is still rising while MA 23 begins to decrease.
I think the market will stay for a while in the 145.85 - 147.25 range, which will take place of the former range
(144.60 - 146). Incidently range value is the same (140 ticks).
Market opened where it closed on Thursday and, in a vey small volume, continued its rise. HoD (147.01) was achieved shortly before 4 pm. At such level reactive Sellers entered into the market and pushed prices down.
Market ended at 146.88, which is to say POC level.
At 146.88, POC is much higher than Thursday and there is an HVN at POC level.
Result is a green candle with an upper shadow. Volume is amost nil.
Therefore, on Monday, it will be very interesting to see whether Friday's closing value will be accepeted or rejected.
All ICHIMOKU indicators are bullish in the TU except that Tenkan Sen is below Kjun Sen.
Such situation is very fragile : Shikou Span is struggling not to go below the candle line and the cloud will soon get thinner.
On the 4H graph, I traced an upward broadening structure. Would the market fail to go above 147.25 (HoW and also HoY), a partial rotation will be made, indicating that at the next contact with the support oblique, prices might go below, reaching the 144.60 target (upward broadening structure origin).
Obviously, 145.85-00 is a key supporting level, as we clearly saw on Thursday.
Weekly candle is a hammer, which forms with the previous candle a crowbar top.
Weekly PP is at 146.66, market closed above on Friday.
If such closing value is accepted on Monday, target is R1 (147.48). Going below PP would be rather negative and S1
(146.05), very near from LoW (145.85) shall be tested, which would mean going below the upward broadening stucture supporting oblique.
Woul the market try to rise on Monday, 147.01-07 (HoD and mid PP - R1) is a first resistance then HoY (147.25), R1 (147.47), mid R1-R2 (147.77) and finally R2 (148.05).
On the support side, PP (146.64) could be a first support then 146.38 (mid PP-S1, MA 44 and former HVN). Below there is S1 (146.06) and finally LoW (145.85).
Almost no statisctics on Monday so I am expecting a trendless day, definitely staying within last week range (145.85 - 147.25).
Market opened roughly where it closed on Friday and was trendless in a a tiny 146.70 - 98 range.
At 147.91, POC is only 3 ticks above Friday and there is an HVN at 146.87, to be compared to 147.88 on Friday....
Result is a spin top. Volume is very small.
Shikou Span ended just below the candle line. It is not a positive sign if it does not manage to go above tomorrow.
All other ICHIMOKU indicators are bullish in this TU. The cloud will soon get thinner, ofering therefore a weaker support in the case of a downard move.
Not much change since Friday evening.
Resistance and support levels are almost the same than Friday evening.
Resistances : 146.98-07 ( 2 x HoD + mid PP-R1), 148.25 (HoY), 148.34 (R1), 148.44 (mid R1-R2), 148.54 (R2).
Supportq : 146.71-67-64 ( LoD + MA 44+PP), 146.38 (former HVN + mid PP-S1), 146.08 (S1), 145.85 (HoW).
Only a small US statistic at 4 pm and ALCOA giving its 2nd Q result after Wall Street closing.
I am therefore expecting a quiet and trendless session.
Market opened with a small downard gap and explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers. At Weekly PP level (149.07) reactive Buyers entered into the market and the opening gap was closed.
Before and after the US sales data release, Buyers pushed the market regularly upward to reach HoD during the night session.
At 149.76, POC is much higher than the previous days. Value is extended from 149.25 to 149.78.
Result is a big green candle with a bare head and good volume.
I drafted a downard squared broadening structure which neckline is HoY. MA 44 and 23 are in support.
Failure to go above HoY may trigger some reactive selling interest.
Above HoY (149.87), there is R1 (150.24) then mid R1-R2 (150.63) and R2 (151.10).
On the support side there is an HVN at 149.74 then the 149.35 level (MA23 and a former HVN) and finally 149.16-07 area (HVN, PP and LoD).
Market opened roughly where it closed on Wednesday and rose until reactive Sellers appeared at 150.16. From such level, which was to be HoD, market came back to the opening level and was trendless the rest of the day.
About one hour before the end of the night session, market was at opening level and should close there.
At 149.87, POC is a shade higher than yesterday and there is a selling tail from 150.06 to 150.16.
Result is a neat doji, just below the upward channel resistance oblique. It does call for a long red candle tomorrow, forming an evening star would the case be.
149.60 is the point where Kijun Sen and Tenkan sen do cross. All indicators are still bullish in this TU.
Market may close above the grey horizontal line. Going below would mean a consolidation of the upward move.
150.16 (HoY) is a first resistance then R1 (150.23), mid R1-R2 (150.84) and R2 (151.11).
149.87-83 is a first support (today's POC and LoD), then 149.74 (yesterday HVN), 149.50-59 (MA 23, former HoD and Kijun Sen), then 149.35 (former HVN) and finally 148.95-07 (MA 44 and PP).
Some important US statistics tomorrow together with Ukraine related newsflow.
LTF:
We are in a range within around a LTF profile mid and on Friday we managed to go through the whole range from bottom to top which was quite an expected move since we hit the range low represented by a very distinct LVN of the LTF volume profile.
STF:
We seem to have unfinished business on the top and we also seem to have been jumping off the low of the current range with a bit more volume near its top. On the other hand the HVN of the LTF profile as well as of the range is really protruding. It could have been rejected on Friday, however the top is really thin.
So we need to see more volume at the top of the range on Monday to continue up.
If the volume does not come, we will get back at least to the current VPOC.
So we popped up from the current range after rejecting the last HVN from Friday.
However, as is lately usual, Monday volume is not very convincing.
We have been trying to fill up the valley above the current LTF POC, we also got to the next HVN of the LTF VP. However, there does not seem to be any unfinished business at the high. The last today's auctions are probably just STF buyers closing their longs.
So if we are to go on up tomorrow, we would need to see buyers above 148.80 or 148.55 again, otherwise, the way back down to the range is probable.
STF: Today we found buyers in the very morning and we definitely got back to the previous range from the beginning of September and almost touched the previous POC. It seems, however, that higher prices are finally rejected by now and we finished off by extending down to the other side and closing in the middle of today's range at the LVN from today's as well as previous range VP.
Today we traded with slighly more volume than yesterday. Tomorrow we will see if we are now established in the previous range. Today's VP has two distributions and rejected buyers at the top and rejected sellers at the bottom. We might just build a bit more balance within the range tomorrow, filling up the thin space between the two HVNs.
We have still about a half hour till the end, however I do not expect anything extraordinary to happen so here we go.
LTF: Uptrend
STF: So we balanced a bit, volume remained low.
We have sellers rejected at the low, buyers did not reach yesterdays values but keep on trying. Still, we seem to finish more on the sellers side.
Auction unfinished to the low. We might see some sellers coming in tomorrow with an attempt to get back to the previous range.
If not, we would need strong buyers to get over that rejection from yesterday (above today's POC at 149.05 and definitely above 149.16). Otherwise, ranging is again the option.
STF: So the buyers indeed came. They appeared in the morning, got easily near yesterday's POC and started grinding above 149.05. After a huge fight the bears finally threw the towel in. Bears tried the whole day but could not stay below 149.16 for a single minute.
Unfinished auction at the top but a very thin volume area above on the LTF VP and the previous range high.
Tomorrow will test the strength of bulls again. If they appear, there is not much above to hold them not going to the moon and beyond. If the buyers stay at home, we may see some filling up of the valley (149.16 - 149.30) between the two today's VP distributions. 149.16 may be a significant line in the sand for some time.
