Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
On the same 4H TU graph than the previous post, I drafted a rising wedge.
Target is 128.58 in the case of an upward exit (same target than the one related to the upward exit of a symetric triangle).
Target is 127.83 in the case of a downard exit, which is to say MA 44 127.79 yesterday evening.
I am a strong buyer in the case market goes over Wednesday HoD (128.14).
Market opened roughly where it closed Wednesday and made a first high at 146.97 to return afterwards at LoD level (146.73). Upon release of the US data, 147.18 was paid (a shade above R2). Market ended some 12 ticks lower.
At 147.03, POC is some 20 ticks higher than Wednesday and day volume is a bit smaller.
Result is a green candle, with two small shadows, today's candle being smaller than the previous one and the associated volume being also smaller.
On the 4H graph, I drafted a rising wedge. Symetric triangle target (147.33) is still valid but in the case prices go below rising wedge supporting oblique, target is 145.97.
I have the feeling that lots of volume is needed for the market to climb and that Bunds and Bonds are very vulnerable in the case stock markets are retracing their recent losses.
Would the market continue to rise tomorrow, above 147.18 (HoY), there is 147.84 (mid R2-R3).
Would the market retrace, first support is at 146.76-73 (LoD and former HVN) then 146.33 (former HVN and MA 23), 146. 21 (LoD) and finally 146.04-99 (2 x LoD and mid R1-PP).
No big statistics tomorrow so I am expecting the market to retrace gently part of the rise mde from 145.65, with 146.80 (23.6% retracement) being an interesting level.
Market opened at 147.18 and immediately incentive Sellers took the lead and pushed prices down to 146.86.
From there, reactive Buyers sent prices back to 147.11 but as there was no follow through, Sellers came again and market may end at its LoD, close to 146.80.
At 146.98, POC is a shade lower than yesterday and there is a selling tail, in the 147.18-06 area.
Result is a red candle, a loop belt, which forms a black cloud with the previous one, at the top of the rise from 144.57. Fast stochastics are making an inflexion above 90.
Prices do end below Tenkan Sen. All other ICHIMOKU indicators are in bullish mode in this TU.
Rising Wedge supporting oblique stopped prices decrease today.On Monday, in the case prices go below such oblique, target is in the 146 area, which is also where MA 44 is.
Candle of the week is a big green one with an upper shadow.
Weekly PP is at 146.59. As long as prices are above, target is R1 (147.50). Going below PP would give S1 (146) as target, S1 being also MA44 value and rising wedge downard exit target.
Would the market try to rise on Monday, high end of today's value (147.06) could be a first resistance. Then HoY
(147.18). Above there is R1 (147.48), mid R1-R2 (147.74) and R2(148.05).
Would the rising wedge supporting oblique be broken, 146.76-73 (former HVN's could stop the fall). Then there is PP (146.60), 146.33 (former HVN and mid PP-S1) and the 146.04-99 area (2 x LoD and S1).
On Monday there are plenty of statistics, on both sides of the Atlantic and market's volatility may increase.
Since yesterday evening, I am negative on the Bund market and will have a negative biais to my trading as long as prices are below 147.18 and as long as 146 has not being paid.
On this 4H graph, it appears that prices ended below the supporting oblique of the squared rising triangle.
Target is 110.560
1 Day graph shows a bearish engulfing of the two last true corpse, a negative signal indeed.
If, on Monday at 8 am, SCHATZ future market opens at friday closing level, I will be keen seller, with a stop over the squared rising triangle horizontal resistance (110.675) to target 110.560.
Market opened rouglhy where it closed on Friday and explored whether lower prices would attract Sellers.
4 ticks below Friday LoD, reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose gently. 5 ticks below Friday HoD, reactive Sellers entered into the dance and prices came back to opening level where some Buyers were hidden.
Prices may end not far from POC (147.04).
At 147.04, POC is not far from Thursday and Friday POC's and there is an HVN at 147.01.
Result is a spin top which make some sort of congestion with the two previous candles.
Rising wedge supporting oblique did a good job. I traced an horizontal channel.
Would the market go up tomorrow, first (big) resistance is 147.14-18 (HoD + 2 x HoY). Then there is R1 (147.48), mid R1-R2 (147.74) and R2 (148.05).
On the support side, I do see today's HVN (147.01) then 146.80-73 (2 x LoD + former HVN) then PP (146.60), 146.33 (former HVN + mid PP-S1) annd finally 147.04-99 (2 x LoD + S1).
I do see the market in a 146.77 - 148.18 range. The exit will bring much volatility, one way or the other. Be ready.
Market opened rouglht where it closed and around 10.30 am made a spike at 147.25, which was to be HoD (and also hoY for the time being). On the afternoon, the good ADP statistics sent 10 years T Notes down and the Bund as well. Market closed almost at LoD (146.54).
At 147.07, POC is a shade lower than Tuesday and there are three HVN, 147.09, 146.94 and 146.74.
Result is a red candle with an small upper shadow and a bare bottom. Tenkan Sen is in contact with candle lower end. MA 20 is at 145.95.
Tenkan Sen and Kiijun Sen are above prices and may cross tomorrow. Shikou Span is still above prices. A thick cloud is on support.
Prices exit a squared rising triangle by below, almost making the target. MA 44 at 146.44 on support and rising.
I would expect tomorrow morning a pullback on the former support before, eventually resuming the downard move.
Mario press conference and some US data will give the trend.
On Friday, 4th of July, the US markets shall be closed so Thursday will be an important day.
Would the market consolidate, the three HVN's (146.74, 146.94 and 147.09) are first obstacles then HoY (147.25).
Above we have 147.48 (R1).
On the support side, below 146.54 (PP and LoD), there is MA 44 (146.44), 146.33 (mid PP-S1 and a former HVN) and the strong 146.04-99 support (2 x LoD and S1), which is a logical target in the case of a strong downard move after 2.30 pm.
Market opened rouglhy where it closed Wednesday and Sellers continued to push prices down. 146.26 was paid and market returned to MA 44 level prior to the US data release. Upon such release, 145.85 was very shortly visited and almost immediately, reactive Buyers entered into the market and in a couple of minutes prices came back to the 146.26. Market may end not far from the opening level.
At 146.41, POC is much lower than Wednesday. There is a buying tail from 145.85 to 146.20 and an HVN at 146.37.
Result is a very neat hammer, almost a doji. Lower end of the shadow is in contact with MA 20 and the horizontal support in the 145.99 - 04 area which was visited, as forecasted. .
Such level proved to be very strong.
LoD is at SSB level. The cloud offered a good support. Prices ended just above the cloud and Shikou Span is knocking at the candle line. Kijun Sen is above prices. Would Shikou Span go below the candle line, it would be a negative sign. I am expecting prices to go into the cloud and stay inside at least tomorrow and may be longer.
Would the market try to rise tomorrow, first resistance is 146.62 (HoD and Kijun Sen), then the three yesterday's HVN's (146.74, 146.94 and 147.09), then yesterday's HoD (147.25) which is also HoY.
On the support side, there is 146.37 (HVN), 146.26 (Buying tail high end) and finally LoD (145.85).
Tomorrow, its 4h of July, there are no statistics so I am expecting a trendless day. I may end my trading day at noon and take a long week-end.
)