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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #801 (permalink)
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REVERSE AND UPWARD AGAIN

Market opened where it closed on Tuesday, shily explored whether the 144.90 support was solid and met reactive Buyers at 144.92, which was to be LoD.
Prices then rose regularly until the end of the day session. During the night session, upon FOMC minutes release and Janet speach, 145.68 was paid and market ended 4 ticks lower.

At 145.43, POC is 33 ticks higher than yesterday and there is an HVN at POC level.

Result is a green candle, almost as big as the previous red one.

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SSB acted as a support.

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Upper BB (145.82) seems a logical target.

As prices entered into the present horizontal flag by below, it is more likely the exit to be by above.

Would the upward move continue tomorrow, there are 3 x HoD in the 145.68-81 area. Above there is 145.91-99 (HoY and R1) then mid R1-R2 (146.20) and R2 (146.45).
On the support side there is 145.43 (HVN) then the 145.22-10 level (3 x HVN) and 145.00/90 (4 x LoD and SSB).
S1 (144.77) is further below.

At one point, prices will exit from the 144.60-146 range but when ? Only time will tell.
As long as prices do remain within the range the winning strategy is to buy lower BB and sell upper BB.

Good Night.

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  #802 (permalink)
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UPWARD DAY BUT A SHOOTING STAR IS THE RESULT

Market opened with an actual gap, and not only a morning gap (i.e. a gap between the closing level and the opening level). Such actual gap was partially filled in the first minutes of quotation but the 145.68-71 area remained open.
From 145.71, Buyers continued the upward move initiated on Wednesday and prices regularly rose untill 145.33 where reactive Sellers entered into the market ad pushed prices 40 ticks down as closing was at 144.93.

At 145.06, POC is an astonishing 60 ticks above Wednesday's, there are two HVN, one at POC and the other one at 144.83 and a buying tail from 145.71 to 145.77.

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Result is a shooting star, separated from the previous candle by a gap.
Prices are ending below the horizontal resistance.

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Tenkan Sen is crossing over Kijun Sen. All ICHIMOKU indicators are bullish in this TU.

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I drafted a symetric triangle, the upward exit being made with the gap (yellow arrow).

If tomorrow, the gap is not filled and prices do end above the horizontal resistance, target is 147.30.
The closing of the gap and prices ending below the horizontal resistance would be rather negative.
Even more negative would be an open tomorrow with an actual gap but downard, making Thursday's 4H candles an island and Thursday day candle a lost baby....

Would the upward move continue tomorrow, first resistance is 146.03 (HVN) then 146.33 (HoY). Above there is R2 (146.45) and mid R2-R3 (147.01).
On the support side there is 145.83 (HVN) then the actual gap opened this morning (145.72-68) then 145.45 (former HVN) and finally PP (145.31).

Tomorrow shall be very interesting as per next week trend.

Good Evening.

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  #803 (permalink)
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THURSDAY UPWARD GAP FILLED


Market opened with a small upward gap which was filled almost immediately. After a second refusal on opening level, Sellers shily made prices going down until the upward actual gap opened on Thursday was filled.
At 145.66, reactive Buyers entered into the market which ended at 145.90.

At 145.86, POC is some 20 ticks lower than Thursday and there is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a hammer which follows a shooting star. Actual gap is filled and prices ended below the horizontal resistance.

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Tenka Sen is above prices, all other ICHIMOKU indicators are in a bullish mode in this TU.

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Friday's move can be seen as a throwback on the resistance oblique of the symetric triangle which exit was made with the actual upward gap Thursday morning. MA 23 and 44 are on support and rising.
147.33 target is still valid.

Weekly candle is a hammer, which follows two other hammers. It is usually the sign of a rather strong buying interest below candles true corpses. Weekly PP is at 145.70. Prices ended above on Firday and as long as it is the case, target is R1 (146.45) while R2 (147,13) is not far from symetric triangle target (147.33).

Would the market resume its upward move on Monday, first resistance is 146.08 (HoD, mid PP-R1), then 146.34 (HoY). Above we have mid R1-R2 (146.46) and R2 itself (147.13).
On the support side, below 145.66 (LoD and PP), there is 145.45-43 (MA44 and a former HVN) then the strong 145.04/91 (S1, SSB and 3 x LoD).

European and US PMI on Monday plus US New Home Sales. If opening level holds, up shall be the trend.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #804 (permalink)
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BOBL ALSO MADE A THROWBACK

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A 4H graph where can be seen MA 44 support job. I have the feeling that BOBL extract itself from a symetric triangle to enter into a rising channel.
Symetric triangle upward target is 128.58, not far from mid R1-R2 (128.52), reachable within the coming week.
Target is valid as long as prices are above the grey and the green obliques.

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DIAMONS ARE SCHATZ BEST FRIENDS

On SCHATZ, I do see a diamond.

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1 DAY GRAPH

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4H GRAPH.

Target is 110.770 in the case of a upward exit (the diamond being, in such case, a continuation structure).
Target is 110.480 in the case of downard exit (the diamond being in this latter case a top structure).

I may buy above 110.650 with a stop loss at 110.610 to target 110.770 and
I may sell below 110.610 with a stop loss at 110.650 to target 110.480.

BIBI


Last edited by MARS; June 21st, 2014 at 08:48 AM. Reason: Clerical mistake
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THE HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE HOLDS

Market opened rooughly where it closed on Friday and after exploring whether lower prices would attract Sellers, market rose gently to a first high at 146.08 and later to 146.25, which was to be HoD for at such level some reactive Sellers appeared and market ended a shade below 146.

At 146.08 POC is some 20 ticks higher than Friday but at the same level than Thursday. There is a buying tail from 145.70 to 90 and two HVN, one at 146.03 and the other 146.16.


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Result is a shooting star, after a hammer and a shooting star : if market does not overcome soon the horizontal resistance, Sellers may becom more agressive. Alternatively, frantic short covering may happen above 146.34 (HoY).


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All ICHIMOKU indicators are in a bullish mode.


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On this 4H graph, late afternoon downard move could be analised as a throwback on the the former 145.97 resistance. 147.33 target is still valid but will be taken into consideration only above 146.34 (June 19th top).

Would the upward move continue tomorrow, first resistance is 146.25-34 (HoD and HoY), then R1 (146.46), mid R1-R2 (146.80) and R2 itself (147.11).
On the support side, buying tail high end (145.90) then 145.70 (LoD and PP). Going below PP would be rather negative for it would mean going back inside the symetric triangle. 147.33 target would then become invalid.

IFO on the morning and some US statistics in the afternoon may bring some volatility.

Good Evening.

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DIAMONDS ARE FOREVER

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Tomorrow shall be the exit.

Watch the Schatz.

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A DAY FOR NOTHING

Very tiny range and volatility for BUND, BOBL and SCHATZ, the latter managing to stay in its Diamond.
Situation unchanged, same targets, supports and resistances than in my last post.

Tomorrow there are some US statistics in the afternoon, which may bring some volatility.
Less volatility than today will be difficult, anyway.

Good Evening.

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MARS View Post
Very tiny range and volatility for BUND, BOBL and SCHATZ, the latter managing to stay in its Diamond.
Situation unchanged, same targets, supports and resistances than in my last post.

Tomorrow there are some US statistics in the afternoon, which may bring some volatility.
Less volatility than today will be difficult, anyway.

Good Evening.

Grazie Mars, a domani, ciao!

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UPWARD TREND RESUMES


Market opened with an upward gap which was immadiately filled. LoD (146.21) was made by 8.30 am and thereafter, incentive Buyers took the lead and market made a first high at 146.54.
Upon the 1st Q GDP release, even worse than the bad figure expected, prices rocketed to 146.92, making a new HoY. Market may end some 15 ticks lower.

At 146.81, POC is some 70 ticks higher than Tuesday. There are two HVN, a big one at 146.76 and a smaller one at 146.33.

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Result is a big green candle with two small shadows. Volume is bigger than Tuesday.

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All ICHIMOKU indicators are obviously in a bullish mode in this TU.

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174.33 target is obviously still valid.

Would the upward move continue tomorrow, above HoD (146.92), next resistance is R2 (147.13) then mid R2-R3 (146.85).
On the support side we have 146.76 (HVN) then 146.33 (HVN), 146.21 (LoD) and finally 146.04-99 (2 x LoD and mid PP-R1).

I think that R2 (147.13) shall be paid but maybe not tomorrow. I will be strong buyer above HoD (146.92) to target R2 (147.13).

Good Evening.

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