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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #791 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
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127. 56 paid.

Bravo!!!

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  #792 (permalink)
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MUCH VOLATILITY AND UP AT THE END

Market opened with a downard gap and dropped, looking for a support, which was found at Thursday's LoD.
On 144.91, which was to be LoD, reactive Buyers entered into the market and the opening downard gap was filled.
Market was then trendless in a rather wider range and ended where it closed on Thursday.

At 145.38, POC is 15 ticks above Thursday's POC which was 10 ticks above the previous POC : Buyers are in control of the market. There is a buying tail from 144.91 to 145.09 and an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a hammer . MA 20 is flat.

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As already said, in a trendless market, ICHIMOKU is not very relevant.

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Still in the 144.60 - 146 range.

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Weekly candle is a doji hammer, following a previous one, at the top of a rise from 136.50.

As long as prices do remain below 146.00, I will have a bearish feeling on the medium term market outlook.
A surge over the 146.00 may trigger a new upward momentum.
PP is at 145.27, prices ended above, as long as it is the case, target is R1 at 145.98, which is also the 144.60-146 top.

On the resistance side, above 145.65 (HoD and mid PP-R1), we have 145.97-99 (R1 and HoY). Above there is mid R1-R2 (146.20) and R2 (146.45).
On the support side, I do see the 145.39-28 area (HVN, lower value, PP), then the 145.05-144.90 area (Buying tail, 2 x LoD, mid PP-S1, SSB) and below S1 (144.78).

Some small US statistics on Monday. Unless there is a dramatic newsflow from Iraq (or Ukraine....) I am expecting the Bund market to stay in last week range.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #793 (permalink)
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I have never traded Bunds outright, though been trading it as part of different spreads for years...

and it has been behaving really strangely as off late?

You guys noticed any difference since the start of the year?

Oh... I spread it versus other Eurex-products, Gilt, 10-notes etc

and also Euribor.... occasionally


Last edited by Big Mike; June 16th, 2014 at 05:19 PM.
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  #794 (permalink)
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@Traderich

I am trading Bunds but also Bobl and Schatz for several years and I have not noticed something peculiar this year.

From time to time, I would be interested to have your view on the change of spreads trends between Bund, Bobl and Schatz.

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  #795 (permalink)
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TOP OF THE RANGE AND REVERSE ?

Market opened where it closed on Friday and traded all day in a tiny range to end broadly where it opened.

At 145.68, POC is 25 ticks above Friday's POC. Volume is very small.

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Result is a neat doji. A red candle tomorrow would form an evening star.

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As previously said, in a trendless market, ICHIMOKU is not a relevant tool.

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Prices are in contact with upper BB. MA 44 and 23 are flat, fast stochastics are topping. I would not be surprised to see prices going down again, towards lower BB (144.75 this evening).

On the resistance side, there is HoD (145.81) the 145.97-99 (HoY and R1) then mid R1-R2 (146.20) and R2 (146.45).
On the support side, below LoD (145.55) there is PP (145.31) then the 145.06-90 area (mid PP-S1, 2x LoD and SSB) and finally S1(144.78).

Tomorrow at 11 am there is the ZEW and in the afternoon some important US statistics).
I may be keen seller below today's LoD (145.55) with a stop above HoD (145.81) to target lower BB (144.75) which is to say S1.

Good Night.

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  #796 (permalink)
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RISING WEDGE ON FGBL

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On this 1H graph, I drafted a rising wedge (3 poits of contact on each oblique).
Target is 145.04 in the case of a downard exit.

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  #797 (permalink)
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TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN

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Target is not yet achieved but I am taking my profit and you can do it too if you sold upon the downard exit.

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TARGET ACHIEVED ON FGBL RISING WEDGE

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Target achieved !

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DOWN DAY AND EVENING STAR

Market opened where it closed on Monday, shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers and met instead some Sellers at 145.71 which was to becom HoD. From there, prices regularly decreased and LoD (145.02) was reached shortly prior to the end of the day session. I am expecting the night session to close some 10 ticks higher than LoD.

At 145.06, POC is considerably lower than Monday and there are two HVN's, one at 145.38 and the other one, smaller, at 145.10.

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Result is a big red candle, a loop belt, with good volume, forming an evening star with the two previous candles.

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SSB acted as support.

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At 144.80, lower BB seems a natural target. MA 44 begins to decrease.

Would the downard move continue tomorrow, first support is 145.00/90 (3x LoD, SSB). Below there is S1 (144.77) then LoW (144.59, mid S1-S2 (144.44) and finally 144.08-03 (S2 and former LoW).
On the resistance side we do have 145.24 (PP), then 145.38 (HVN) 145.60 (value higher end) 145.72 (HoD) and finally 145.97-99 (HoY and R1).

Tomorrow at 8 pm Berlin time FOMC minutes shall be disclosed and hafl a hour later Janet press conference.
I am therefore expecting a trendless market but with volatility prior to 8 pm and a clear trend afterwards.

Good Evening.


Last edited by MARS; June 17th, 2014 at 05:58 PM. Reason: POC changed since first editing
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MARS View Post
Market opened where it closed on Monday, shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers and met instead some Sellers at 145.71 which was to becom HoD. From there, prices regularly decreased and LoD (145.02) was reached shortly prior to the end of the day session. I am expecting the night session to close some 10 ticks higher than LoD.

At 145.50, POC is some 15 ticks lower than Monday and there are two HVN's, one at 145.38 and the other one, smaller, at 145.10.

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Result is a big red candle, a loop belt, with good volume, forming an evening star with the two previous candles.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

SSB acted as support.

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At 144.80, lower BB seems a natural target. MA 44 begins to decrease.

Would the downard move continue tomorrow, first support is 145.00/90 (3x LoD, SSB). Below there is S1 (144.77) then LoW (144.59, mid S1-S2 (144.44) and finally 144.08-03 (S2 and former LoW).
On the resistance side we do have 145.24 (value lower end and PP), then 145.38 (HVN) 145.60 (value higher end) 145.72 (HoD) and finally 145.97-99 (HoY and R1).

Tomorrow at 8 pm Berlin time FOMC minutes shall be disclosed and hafl a hour later Janet press conference.
I am therefore expecting a trendless market but with volatility prior to 8 pm and a clear trend afterwards.

Good Evening.


Ciao Mars, buona serata e grazie per il tuoi posts.

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