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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #781 (permalink)
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MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE SCHATZ

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In 1 day TU, SCHATZ made a very nice doji with long legs;

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On 4H TU, I drafted a squared upward broadening formation which could be a major reverse structure, would the market go below 110.580.

Watch out such level, target is minimum 110.535 would the horizontal support be broken and could be much more if it is a reverse of the upward trend which begun several months ago....

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  #782 (permalink)
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SQUARED DOWNARD BROADENING ON BOBL

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On this 4H TU graph, I drafted a squared downard broadening structure. Target is 128.26 in the case of an upward exit (prices going above 127.73.

In the case of a triple top however, prices could go back to 127 and in the case of a dowanrd exit, target is 126.10.

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TEST OF THE UPWARD CHANNEL RESISTANCE


Market opened with a small upward gap which was filled immediately and incentive Buyers took the lead and gradually market rose to 145.89. Upon release of the US data, a spike was made at 145.99, which was to be LoD.
Market ended some 15 ticks lower.

At 145.60, POC is considerably higher than Thursday, which was left virgin. There is a buying tail from 145.16 to 145.35 and value ends at 145.83.

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Result is a green candle with two shadows. Upper shadow is in contact with upper BB and the resistance obllique of the upward channel.

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Shikou Span is still below the candle line while all other ICHIMOKU indicators are on a bullish mode in the TU.

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Last two trading days move could be analyzed as a pullback on the former support of the rising wedge and a possible double top at 146.00.

On a weekly basis, candle is a almost a doji hammer which forms a crowbar top with the previous candle.
Weekly PP is at 145.22. As long as prices do remain above such level, likely target is R1 at 146.50.
Failure of the market to go over 146.00 could trigger some profit taking from long positions.

Would the market retrace on Monday the upward move from 144.03 to 145.99, there is first level at 145.50 ( 23.6 retracement) then 145.25 (PP, MA 44 and 38.2 retracement) and then LoD (145.16) and 144.86 (mid PP-S1).

On the resistance side, above 145.99 (2 x HoD), there is R1 (146.48), mid R1-R2 (146.87) and R2 (147.22).

No figures tomorrow and its Monday. I am therefore expcting a quiet day and the market to retrace part of the last two trading days upward move.

Have a nice Sunday evening.

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TARGET UNACHIEVED ON BOBL

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Squared downard broadening structure target has not been achieved and candle before last is a shooting star.
A reurn on the 127.73 level, former HoY and resistance of the strcture could be a nive buying opportunity.

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A CONSOLIDATION DAY WITH ALMOST NO VOLUME

Market opened with a downard gap, filled it, making its HoD (145.76). At such level reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices gently decreased to 145.33, which was to be LoD. Night session ended some 10 ticks higher.

At 145.65, POC is 6 ticks higher than Friday and there is no HVN.

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Result is an harami. Associated volume is very small.

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Shikou Span is still below the candle line and Tenkan Sen ends above prices which are in the cloud.

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MA 44 acted as support.

Would the retracement continue tomorrow, below 145.30-33 (LoD and MA44) there is PP (145.25) then a former LoD (145.16, mid PP-S1 (144.86 ), S1 (144.48) and finally LoW (144.00).
On the resistance side, above HoD (145.76), there is a HoY (145.99) then R1 (146.48) mid R1-R2 (145.87) and R2 (147.22).

Only a small US statistic at 4pm Berlin time. No idea of what the market could do tomorrow.

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ANOTHER DOWN DAY

Market opened with a small upward gap, making its HoD, filled the gap and then gently decreased to reach LoD just before the end of the day session. Market ended at LoD.

At 145.34, POC is some 30 ticks lower than Monday. There is a selling tail from 145.45 to 145.56.
Monday's POC is virgin. Sellers are in control of the market.

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Result is a red loop belt.

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As market is in a 144.60 - 146.00 range, Ichimoku analysis might not be relevant.
Notwithstading, all Ichimoku indicators are bearish in this TU.

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The horizontal support seems to attract prices.

Would the dowanrd move continue tomorrow, below LoD (144.95) there is 144.86 (mid PP-S1 and former HVN) then 144.48 (S1) and finally LoW (144.01).
On the resistance side we have 145.44 (high value end) then two HoDs (145.56 and 76) and finally HoY (145.99).

Buyers seems to have vanished and market is looking for some support.
I do not see anything serious before S1.

Almost no statistics tomorrow, so I am expecting the gentle downard move to continue, S1 being the target.

Good Night.

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REACTION ON 144.60

Market opened roughhy where it closed on Tuesday and continue its downard move until it reached 144.58, which was to be LoD, where reactive Buyers entered into the market.

Prices first rose to reach the opening level and as there was some followthrough, I believe that some short covering begun and prices rocketed to 145.50, which is almost MA 44 level, where reactive Sellers cooled prices down. Market ended at 145.02.

At 145.13, POC is lower than yesterday which was lower than the day before : Sellers are still in control of the market.

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Result is a candle with two big shadows and a small true corpse. Volume is bigger than the two previous days.
Such candle could be of continuation or the sign of a reverse trend.
As BOBL day candle is a penetration and SCHATZ day candle a bullish engulfing of the two previous candles, I think that today's BUND candle is more likely a reverse trend one.

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SSB acted as a resistance. Same remark as yersterday : as market is in a trendless 144.60 - 146 range, ICHIMOKU indicators might not be very relevant.

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MA 44 acted as resistance and is flatening.

Would the upward move continue tomorrow, above 145.50-55 (HoD and MA44), there is another HoD (145.76) then HoY (145.99). Above we have R1 at 146.48.
Would the downard move resume, below LoD (144.58), there is S1 (144.48) and LoW (144.01).

Some US statistics tomorrow. I am convinced that prices will stay in the 144.58 - 145.99 range and I would not be surprised to see prices getting closer to the upper end of the range.

Good Night.

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UPWARD DAY AFTER MUCH HESITATION

Market opened where it closed Wednesday and was trendless all moring in a 144.90 - 145.17 range. In the afternoon, the trendless market continued but in the 145.10-145.37 range.
During the night session, Iraq related events made the Bond market to rise dramatically and so did the Bund which rose almost 40 ticks in one hour but in a very scarce volume.

At 145.22, POC is only 10 ticks higher than yesterday. There is an HVN at 145.22. Day volume is modest.

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Result is a rather big green candle, with a small upper shadow.
As forecasted, prices got closer to the upper end of 144.60 - 146 range

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As previously said, in a trendless market, ICHIMOKU indicators are not relevant.

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MA 44 is almost flat, and in the middle of the range. Upper BB (145.80) seems to attract prices.

On the resistance side, above HoD (145.63) there is another HoD (145.76) then HoY (145.99) and R1 (146.48).
On the support side, we may have value upper end (145.32) then HVN (145.22) LoD (144.90) and Wednesday LoD (144.58).

Tomorrow morning, it is to be seen whether the closing level will be accepted or rejected as the new market value.
In the afternoon, there are some important US statistics plus the eventual Iraq developments.

Good Night.

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RISING WEDGE ON BOBL

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On this 1H graph, I traced a rising wedge (three points of contact on each oblique).

In the case of a downard exit, target is 127.56, which is lower BB.
In the case of an upward exit, target is 128.14, lowered at HoY level (128.09).

Good Night.

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DOWNARD EXIT RISING WEDGE ON BOBL ACHIEVED


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127. 56 paid.

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