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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #771 (permalink)
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126.90 TARGET ACHIEVED ON BOBL

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126.89 paid for 126.90 forecasted.

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  #772 (permalink)
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R2 TARGET ACHIEVED ON FGBL

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147.09 paid (for 146.97 forecasted).


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  #773 (permalink)
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ANOTHER UPWARD DAY


Market opened roughly where it closed on Tuedsay and explored wheter lower prices would attract Sellers, making its LoD (146.41) some 3 ticks above an HVN (146.38). From there incentive Buyers resumed their control, making a first high at 146.74 and pushed further upto HoD (147.09) during the night session. Market will likely close very near from such level.

At 146.65, POC is higher then Tuesday and there are three HVN, one at 147.05, a major one in the 146.83-90 area and a last one at POC level. Volume of the day is bigger than Tuesday.

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Result is a big green candle, almost a loop belt, longer than the prvious one and with more volume.
Contact is made with upper BB.

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No coment.

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On the 4H graph, I drafted a supporting oblique which merges with MA 44 and a resistance oblique which is a paralelle to the former resistance oblique of an upward channel the Bund exit by above by mid May.
Such resistance oblique is weak as it does only link two points.

Would the market continue to rise tomorrow, above HoD (147.09), there is mid R2-R3 (147.42) then R3 (147.83).
On the support side the major HVN (146.83-90) is a first one, then the lower HVN and POC (146.61). Below there is LoD (146.41) and finally 146.20 (MA 23 and MA 44).

Sky seems to be the limit but trees don't grow to the sky.....

Good Evening.

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  #774 (permalink)
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REVERSE BEGINS ?

Market opened roughly where it closed and explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers, making its HoD (147.12). All day long, 147.06-09 level was tested but holded and as a consequence, on the night session, prices dropped to 146.66.

At 147.01, POC is much higher than Wednesday, there is an HVN in the 146.98-03 area and no much volume traded below 146.87, value's lower end.

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Result is a red candle, a loop belt, which makes a black cloud over the previous candle. Day's volume is lower than yesterday.

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Tenkan Sen is above prices this evening. All other Ichimoku indicators are bullish in this TU.

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The resistance oblique drafted yesterday evening proved to be an actual one.

MA 23 an 44 are merged with the supporting oblique at 146.30-40 level and I have the feeling that tomorrow, such supporting oblique should be tested and that prices will at least rebound once on such oblique.

Above 146.30-40 support level, (MA 23 and 44 and wednesday LoD) there is today's LoD (146.66) and below 146.13 (PP).
On the resistance side, above 147.09-12 level (2x HoD, but also HoY for the time being) there is 147.42
(mid R2-R3) and finally R3 itself (147.83).

I am expecting tomorrow a trendless trading day within the 146.30 - 146.90 range

Good Evening


Last edited by MARS; May 29th, 2014 at 05:39 PM. Reason: Clerical mistake
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  #775 (permalink)
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TRENDLESS DAY

Market opened roughly where it closed on Thursday, made a high at 146.79 before 9 am Berlin time then its LoD (146.52) around 10 am then was trendless all day long, making however its HoD (146.83) by 5 pm.

At 146.64, POC is much lower than Thursday with POC n-1 untouched. There is no HVN. Volume is below average.

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Result is a small green candle.

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Kijun Sen acted as a support.

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Prices are progressing in the rising wedge.

Weekly cande is a rather big green candle with a volume below average, while monthly candle is a big green one.
Weekly PP is at 146.60. Prices ended above which make R1 (147.33) the logical target as long as prices do remain above PP.

I am not expecting strong moves prior to June 5th and ECB disclosing its policy.

On the resistance side we have 146.81 (HoD), 146.89-03 (former HVN), 147.13 (HoY), 147.33 (R1) and 147.60 (mid R1-R2).
On the support side 146.56-52 (PP and LoD) then 146.32 (MA44 and mid PP-S1) and S1 (146.04).

Have a nice trading day.

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  #776 (permalink)
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BACK TO THE SUPPORT OBLIQUE

Market opened with a small downard gap and after IB was made, incentive Buyers pushed prices upward untill 147.03 for beyond such point there was no followthrough. Shily, reactive Sellers entered into the market and prices went down to 146.71. From there a new attempt to rise was made but reactive Sellers were still there, at 146.92 this time and prices dropped again. Even the 4 pm US data did not manage to make prices going above such level and reactive Sellers were then more agressive and during the night sessin, 146.52 was paid. Market may end some 15 ticks higher.

At 146.84, POC is some 20 ticks higher than yesterday and there is no HVN.

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Result is a candle with a small true corpse and two rather long shadows.

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Kijun Sen did a good job again as support.

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Prices went back to the supporting oblique of the rising wedge.

146.52 is clearly a support (2 x LoD). Below we may have MA 44 and mid PP-R1 (146.35) then S1 (146.04).
On the resistance side, HoD (147.03) is a first one, then HoY (147.13). Above there is R1 (147.33) and mid R1-R2 (147.60).

I am not expecting prices to exit the rising wedge before ECB speaks on June 5th.

Good Evening

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A DOWN DAY WITH HEAVY VOLUME

Market opened rougly where it closed on Monday and was trendless in a tiny range until 11 am when some European statistics were released. Upon such release, incentive Sellers heavily pushed prices down to 146.05. Some reactive Buyers were there and prices rose to 146.27 but as there was no folllow through, Sellers came back and during the night session, 145.95 was paid. Such level was the closing level.

At 146.15, POC is considerably lower than Monday. There are two HVN, one around POC (146.05-17) ad the other one, smaller, at 146.67. Volume is much bigger than average. POC j-1 is untounched.

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Result is a big red candle, in loop belt, with heavy volume. Candle's lower end is at MA 20 level and touching the resistance of a former upward channel.

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Tenkan Sen is crossing below Kijun Sen. Shikou Span is on the verge of going below the candle line. Prices are in the cloud which is very thin and offers almost no support in the case the downard move continues on Wednesday.

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I was mistaken writing Monday evening that prices would remain in the rising wedge.
Prices actually exit the rising wedge by below, making the 145.95 target.
Fast stochastics are at rock bottom.

I am expecting a quieter day on Wednesday, one day ahead ECB speaks, with prices retracing part of Tuesday's fall.

On the resistance side we have 146.05-17 (HVN), then 145.35 (MA 44 and mid S1-PP), 146.50 (Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and value high end), 146.67 (HVN) and finally 146.72 (HoD).
On the support side, 145.85-95 (2 x LoD, MA 20 and Tuesday LoD), then 145.69 (mid S1-S2) and S2 (145.34).

Some important US sstatistics may bring some volatility in the afternoon.

Have a nice trading day.

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  #778 (permalink)
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WAITING FOR MARIO

Market opened with a small upward gap and tested whether higher prices would attract Buyers. Reactive Sellers were met at 146.25, which was to be HoD. A first low (145.90) was achieved prior the US figures. Upon the release of the first one, at 2.30 pm Berlin time, prices rose to HoD but as there was no follow through, Sellers pushed harder and by 4 pm LoD (145.83) was reached. Market may end some 10 ticks higher.

At 146.13, POC is at the same level as Tuesday. There is no HVN.

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Result is a spin top, at MA 20 level and just above the supporting oblique of a rising channel (former resistance oblique of a rising channel, paralell to the present one).

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All Ichimoku indicators are in a bearish mode in 4H TU.

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I drafted a small squared downard broadening structure.

Squared downard broadening structure targets is 146.65 in the case of an upward exit (i.e. going above 146.25, which is to say today's HoD).
As Today's candle could be a structure of continuation or of bottom, if it is of continuation, target is 145.30, which is S2.

With ECB speaking tomorrow, I have no idea where the market could go.
Therefore, my strategy will be very simple : upon release of ECB report at 1.45 pm Berlin time, I may buy above HoD (146.25) to target 146.65, let us say PP (146.60), and sell below LoD (145.83) to target S1 (145.33).

Good Evening.


Last edited by MARS; June 4th, 2014 at 02:30 PM. Reason: Clerical mistake
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  #779 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
Market opened with a small upward gap and tested whether higher prices would attract Buyers. Reactive Sellers were met at 146.25, which was to be HoD. A first low (145.90) was achieved prior the US figures. Upon the release of the first one, at 2.30 pm Berlin time, prices rose to HoD but as there was no follow through, Sellers pushed harder and by 4 pm LoD (145.83) was reached. Market may end some 10 ticks higher.

At 146.13, POC is at the same level as Tuesday. There is no HVN.

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Result is a spin off, at MA 20 level and just above the supporting oblique of a rising channel (former resistance oblique of a rising channel, paralell to the present one).

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All Ichimoku indicators are in a bearish mode in 4H TU.

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I drafted a small squared downard broadening structure.

Squared downard broadening structure targets is 146.65 in the case of an upward exit (i.e. going above 146.25, which is to say today's HoD).
As Today's candle could be a structure of continuation or of bottom, if it is of continuation, target is 145.30, which is S2.

With ECB speaking tomorrow, I have no idea where the market could go.
Therefore, my strategy will be very simple : upon release of ECB report at 1.45 pm Berlin time, I may buy above HoD (146.25) to target 146.65, let us say PP (146.60), and sell below LoD (145.83) to target S1 (145.33).

Good Evening.

Grazie Mars,

Buona serata anche a te.

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  #780 (permalink)
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UP AFTER MUCH HESITATION


As liquidity shifted from June to September future contracts, I will swap to September from now on.

Prior to ECB report at 1.45 pm Berlin time, market was trendless in a 144.62-89 range. Upon release of ECB report prices first dropped to 144.40 then rose to 145.21, almost making HoD. When Mario begun its press conference, prices dropped to 144.04, making there the LoD to end at 145.17 after paying 145.22, making there the HoD.

POC is at 144.75, exactly the same level as Wednesday and there are two HVN, a small one at 145.03 and a big one around POC, in the 144.65-85 area.

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Result is a hammer. Prices ended above MA 20 and in the upward channel.

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Shikou Span is still below the candle line and prices are just at SSB level, below the cloud. Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are in support. Not a very clear picture.

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MA 44 acts as a resistance and MA 23 is not far.

The 145.20-30 area might prove difficult to overcome and if market fails to go above MA 44 and MA 23, we could guess what will happen.

Would the hammer followed by a green candle, on the resistance side we do have 145.22-25 (HoD, MA 44 and MA 23) then PP (145.45) a former HoD and Mid PP - R1 (145.85-88), a former HoD at 145.95 and finally R1 at 146.19.
Would some retracement takes place tomorrow, first support is 145.03 (HVN) then 144.65-85 area (HVN) and finally LoD (144.04).

Some important US statistics that may bring some volatility in the afternoon.

Good Night.

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