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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #761 (permalink)
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UP UP & UP WITH MORE VOLUME

A one way day, almost a repeat of yesterday pattern, with even more volume.

POC is at a stratospheric 146.63, 80 ticks from yesterday : Buyers are unchallanged.
There are two HVN's, one around POC and the other one much lower, at 146.05.

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Result is a big green candle, almost a loop belt, longuer than the two previous ones and with more volume.
These are the three soldiers, a figure calling for further market rise (but not necessarly tomorrow....).

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No comment.

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No sign of market weakness whatsoever.

If market wants to continue its trend, next resistance, above HoD (146.77) is R4 (146.93).
In the case of a retracement, 146.12, as a former resistance, could be a first point then LoD (145.75) and finally MA23 (145.23).

At these levels and after such a rise, I do not dare to buy anymore and I do not sell. Maybe I will go tomorrow avoiding giving back to the market the money I took from it this week.

Some US figures tomorrow afternoon but who cares and another week-end coming full of Ukrainian uncertainties.....

Good Evening

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  #762 (permalink)
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DOUBLE TOP AND CONSOLIDATION DAY

Market opened where it closed Thursday and immediately tested yesterday's HoD (146.76). A clear rejection gave reactive Sellers the courage to appear and prices gently decreased to reach LoD (146.25) by 4 pm.
Night session may end a shade above such level.

At 146.37, POC is some 25 ticks lower than Thursday and value is concentrated in the lower part of the range, giving the profile a "d" shape.

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Result is a small red candle which volume is much smaller than the one of the three soldiers. I therefore see today's session as a consolidation of the rise from 144.65 and not the start of a reverse trend.

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Tenkan Sen is on support.

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I drafted the fibo retracement of the rise from 144.66 to 146.73.
23.6% (146.24) has been paid, next level is 145.94 (38.2%), then 145.70 (50%), 145.44 (61.8%) and finally 145.22 (72.8%).

On a weekly basis, the candle is an impressive green one with a volume bigger than the one of the last five weeks.
PP is at 145.90. Prices ended above therefore as long as prices remain so, target is R1 (147.17).

Would the market continue to retrace on Monday, below LoD (146.25) first support is 145.90 (PP and 38.2 fibo retracement) then 145.75 (former LoD and 50% retracement) 145.25(former LoD and 72.8 retracement) and finally S1 at 145.03.

Above the 146.76 double top, next resistance is R1 (147.18) then mid R1-R2 (147.68) and R2 (148.05).

No statistics on Monday so market may move only if there is some newsflow.

Have a nice week-end.

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  #763 (permalink)
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SECOND CONSOLIDATION DAY


Market opened where it closed on Friday, explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers and met reactive Sellers at146.59. Prices dropped at 146.09 where reactive Buyers entered into the market and prices rose to 146.36 but at there was no follow through, market ended a shade above LoD.

At 146.23, POC is some 14 ticks lower than Fiday and volume is as small as Friday. there are two HVN's, one at POC level and the other one at 146.43

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Result is a red candle with an upper shadow.

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Tenkan Sen is above prices.

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Next Retracement level is 145.94 (38.2%).

Below LoD (146.07), next support is 145.90 (PP 38.2% retracemet), then 145.70 (MM23 and 50% retracement). Below there is 145.47 (mid PP-R1) then 145.25 (former LoD and MA 44) and finally R1 (145.03).
On the resistance side the two HVN's (146.23 and 146.43) are the first obstacles then HoD (146.58). Above are the two HoD (146.76) and by the way also HoY. Above there is R1 (147.18) then mid R1-R2 (147.63) and finally R2 (148,05).

No statistics tomorrow so like today, I am expecting a quiet day, unless there is some unexpected newsflow.

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  #764 (permalink)
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38% RETRACEMENT : END OF CONSOLIDATION ?

Market opened where it closed. After IB was made, incentive Buyers pushed prices to a first high (146.26) but as there was no follow through, reactive Sellers sent prices back to the opening level and even further below. At 145.95, which was to be LoD, a triple bottom was made and reactive Buyers pushed prices back to day's session high. During the night session, 146.34 was paid. Market ended at 146.25.

At 146.11, POC is some 10 ticks lower than Monday and day range was very small but volume bigger than Monday and Friday, which were down days while Tuesday is an up day.

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Result is a small green candle wich lower shadow is in contact with upward chanel former resistance, which could very well be now a support.

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Prices are betwee Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen.

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We can see that LoD (145.95) is 38.2% retracement of the rise from 144.66 to 146.73 and that prices rebounded on MA 23.

On the resistance side, above HoD (146.33) there are two HoD, 146.58 and 146.76, the latter being HoY. Above there is R1 (147.18), mid R1-R2 (147.63) and R2 (148.05).
Would the market continue to retrace, below LoD (145.95) there is PP (145.90) then 145.70 (50% retracement) and below MA 44 (145.40 and finally S1 (145.03).

I am positive on the Bund market as long as prices remain above 145.95 and I would be strong buyer above today's HoD to target at least upper BB TU 4H (146.73) which is also HoY.

Good Night.

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CONSOLIDATION OR CORRECTION ?

Market opened where it closed rose in order to test whether higher prices would attract Buyers and met reactive Sellers, making its HoD at 146.32, one tick below Tuesday's HoD.
Prices dropped and reached a first low at 145.80 by 4 pm. Upon released of the FOMC data, LoD (145.75) was reached. Night session ended about 20 ticks higher.

At 145.91, POC is some 20 ticks lower than Tuesday's and there is an HVN at POC level.

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Result is a red candle which engulfs the previous one, with also more volume.
End of lower shadow is in contact with Tenkan Sen. Prices are just above resistance of the upward channel that could very well be a support oblique now.

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Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are above prices and did cross. It is usually the sign of a trend change.

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I drafted a doward channel. MA 23 is above prices but still rising. 50% retracement of the rise from 145.65 to 146.73 has been almost reached.

Would the market continue to rectrace, nexr level is 145.44 (61.8% retracement but also MA 44 at 145.51 and mid PP - S1). Further below is R1 at 145.03.
On the resistance side, there is 146.32 (HoD), then 146.56 (HoD), 146.76 (HoY and finally R1 (147.18).
On the support side, there is 145.80-75 (2 x LoD) then 145.48 (MM 44 and mid PP-R1) and ifnallu S1 (145.03).

Some important statistics on Thursday. As long as prices are in the downard channel, hard to be bullish.
Lower shadow of the last 4H candle is in contact with lower BB.

As long as prices do remain in such channel, hard to be bullish but I I see this channel as a flag, I am still waiting for prices to exit upward with a 147. 70 in such case.

Good Night.

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  #766 (permalink)
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BUYERS ARE AT 145.75

Market opened where it closed and immediately, incentive Buyers took control of the market and prices jumped to 146.10 which was reached by 9.10 am. Market was then trendless in a 145.93 - 146.24 range and may end in the middle.

At 146.11, POC is 20 ticks higher than yesterday, there is a buying tail from 145.70 to 145.93 and a HVN at POC level. Volume is lower than yesterday.

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Result is a green candle which makes a penetration of the previous candle.

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Kijun Sen acted as resistance while Tenkan Sen is now in support. Shikou Span is approaching from the candle line as prices are getting closer from the cloud, which is rather thick : unless there is a strong upward move tomorrow, market will become bearish in this TU.

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On the 4H graph, I traced a downard broadening structure which can be seen as a continuation structure of the rise from 144.66. In the case of an upward exit, target of the structure is 147.30 and if seen as a continuation structure, 148.18.

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On BOBL, I do see a downard squared broadening structure. In the case of an upward exit (i.e. above 126.64), target is 126.90, which is to say R1.

On the way up, there are many small resistances, all HoD's : 146.24, 32, 58 and finally a big one, 76, which is HoY.
Above there is R1 (147.18), mid R1-R2 (147.63) and R2 (148.05)
As per the above, I will take R1 as target for the downard broadening structure in the case of an exit by above and R2 as the target if such structure is seen as a continuation of the rise from 144.66.

On the support side, we have 145.70-75 (2 x LoD and MA 44) then 145.48 (mid PP-S1) and S1 (145.03).

IFO tomorrow and some US statistics on the afternoon.

Watch out for a partial rotation in the broadening downard structure, it will indicate a likely exit by above.

Good Evening.

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A DULL DAY

Market opened where it closed on Thursday and was trendless all day long, ranging between 146.20 and 145.95 and ending in between.

At 146.04, POC is closed from Thursday's (146.11) an volume is small.

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Result is a tombstone doji. Tenkan Sen is above prices for the first time since April 224th.

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Prices are just above the cloud, Shikou Span is knocking at candle's line, Kijun Sen is acting as resistance.
The cloud is very thick and shall provide a good support would the market begins by going downards on Monday.

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Prices are still just below the resistance oblique of the downard broadening structure.
Target is now 147.30 in the case of an upward exit.
MA 44 is rising and now at 145.80 level.

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On BOBL side, prices are still below the squared downard broadening structure and in the case of an upward exit, target is unchanged at 126.90

On a weekly basis, candle is a small red hammer, after a big green candle. If the next candle is a big red one, it will form an evening star.
On the BOBL, weekly candle is a doji hammer, forming a crow bar top with the previous big green candle.
Weekly PP is at 146.10. Prices ended a shade below. As long as prices do remain below Friday's HoD (146.20), S1 (145.66), which is also Thursday's LoD is the likely target.

Would the market begins by going down on Monday, below LoD (145.95) first support is MA 44 (145.80) then 145.65 (Thursday's LoD and S1).
On the upward side, we have several small resistances, all HoD's (146.20, 24, 32, 58, which is also R1 and a big one, HoY (146.74) and finallly R2 at 146.80).

Much will depend on the Ukraines elections outcome.
If the downard boradening structure oblique resistance is gapped and the opening level holds (i.e. the is gap not closed), we may see a strong upward day.
On the downard side, the move may be more limited as cloud's thickness and MA44 shall provide some support.

Have a nice Sunday.

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A SECOND DAY FOR NOTHING

With UK and US banks closed, volume was almost nil and market was trendless in a 145.85 - 146.21 range : European and Ukrainian polls are non events for the Bund market today.

POC is about the same as Friday.

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Graphics are almost unchanged from Friday evening with however Shikou Span going below the candle line but with a volume traded so low, I am wondering whether it is of any significance.

On the resistance side, above 146.21-24-32 (3 x HoD) we have 146.58 (HoD and R1), then 146.76 (HoY and mid R1-R2) and 146.92 (R2).

On the support side, below 145.85 ( LoD, MA 44 and mid PP-S1), there is S1 (145.65) then mid S1-S2 (145.44) and finally S2 (145.23).

Tomorrow afternoon there are some US statistics.

Target is now 147.14 (let us say R2 at 146.97) if the downard broadening stucture exit from above with volume.
Prices are ending at the upper hedge of Ichimoku cloud, which may offer some support in the case of a downard move tomorrow.

After two trendless days in a small range, I am expecting the BUND to make a big move but which side ? Only time will tell.

Good Evening

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With UK and US banks closed, volume was almost nil and market was trendless in a 145.85 - 146.21 range : European and Ukrainian polls are non events for the Bund market today.

POC is about the same as Friday.

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Graphics are almost unchanged from Friday evening with however Shikou Span going below the candle line but with a volume traded so low, I am wondering whether it is of any significance.

On the resistance side, above 146.21-24-32 (3 x HoD) we have 146.58 (HoD and R1), then 146.76 (HoY and mid R1-R2) and 146.92 (R2).

On the support side, below 145.85 ( LoD, MA 44 and mid PP-S1), there is S1 (145.65) then mid S1-S2 (145.44) and finally S2 (145.23).

Tomorrow afternoon there are some US statistics.

Target is now 147.14 (let us say R2 at 146.97) if the downard broadening stucture exit from above with volume.
Prices are ending at the upper hedge of Ichimoku cloud, which may offer some support in the case of a downard move tomorrow.

After two trendless days in a small range, I am expecting the BUND to make a big move but which side ? Only time will tell.

Good Evening

Grazie Mars, buona serata anche a te.

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UPWARD MOVE RESUMES


Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and after exploring whether lower prices would attract Sellers, making its LoD (145.90), Buyers took the lead and made a first high at 145.17. By 1.30 pm Berlin time, incentive Buyers heavily entered into the market and by 3.30 pm, HoD (146.54) was reached. Night session may end 15 ticks lower, at POC level.

At 146.38, POC is higher than yesterday and there are two HVN's, one at POC and the other one at 146.10.

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Result is a green candle with a small upper shadow. Volume is decent but below average.

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All Ichimoku indicators are on bullish mode in this TU.

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Candle before last is a tombstone doji. 147.14 target could only be reached if such candle is overcomed.
Fast stochastics are near the roof and together with the tombstone doji do advocate for a retracement tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, MA 44 is rising fast and shoud be around 146.05 tomorrow morning.

Would the market retrace tomorrow, 146.10 (HVN and PP) is a first interesting point, with MA 44 not too far. Below there is 145.95-90 (2 x LoD and mid PP-S1) and S1 (145.65).
On the resistance side, above 146.54-58 (2 x HoD and R1), there is 146.76 (HoY and midR1-R2), 146.97 (R2) and finally mid R2-R3.

With no major statistics tomorrow (but a 10 years Bund aunction), I am expecting the market to explore the valley between the two HVN's (146.10 and 146.38).
Going above today's HoD (146.54) would be a invitation to buy toward the 147.14 target.

Good Evening

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