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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #721 (permalink)
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MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING

Market opened roughly where it closed Tuesday and after shily exploring higher prices, making HoD (143.54) incentive Sellers pushed prices down to a first low (142.34). Reactive Buyers sent prices back to opening level but as there was no follow through, Sellers pushed harder and LoD (143.15) was met at 3.30 pm, not far from SSB. Upon release of FOMC minutes at 8 pm, prices jumped back to HoD and ended 10 ticks lower;

At 143.35, POC is some 15 ticks lower than yesterday, which was also 15 ticks lower than the day before : Sellers are in control of the market. Day volume is small and value is extended.


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Result is a hammer which lower shadow end is almost touching Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen.


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Shikou Span is almost above the candle line and prices are almost above Tenkan Sen. Market is almost on a bullish mode in this TU.


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MA 23 and 44 are flatenning. I drafted a downard channel which could be a consolidation flag (of the upward trend).
An exit by above would mean at least the test of the horizontal resistance of the squared upward triangle (143.98).
143.18 is 50% retracement of the rise from 142.62 to 143.78. Going below such value and closing below weelky PP (143.23) could trigger a downard acceleration towards the support oblique of the squared upward triangle and S1 (142.83).

On the support side, below 143.14-10 (LoD, SSB, Kijun Sen) there is a former resistance at 143.00, then S1 (142.81) and 142.62 (LoD).
On the resistance side, there are several HoD (143.54, 69 and 79) then 143.98-08 area (HoD, HoW, horizontal resistance, R1, HoY), mid R1-R2 (144.22) and R2 (144.40).

I would buy above HoD (143.54) to target 143.98 and would only sell below LoD if there is much volume and a bearish acceleration. In between scalp may be the answer.

I will take a few days leave and may resume posting wednesday evening.

Good Night.

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  #722 (permalink)
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SQUARED DOWNARD BROADENING STRUCTURE

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On this 30' TU graph, I traced a squared downard broadening structure where four rotations could be seen.
In the case prices are going above 143.55, which is to say Wednesday HoD, target is 40 ticks higher, meaning the test of the horizontal resistance of the big squared upward triangle.

Obviously, market could also make a new rotation downard and in such case we may witness reaction near 143.10.
Another possible market behaviour is a partial rotation and an exit upward.

Shikou Span going above the candle line would be a first indication of a likely exit upward.

Have a nice trading day.

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  #723 (permalink)
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REVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS ON BOBL


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On BOBL, I do see a reverse head & shoulders with 125.56 as neck line.
Target is 126 in the case of an upward exit.
May be with the US figures at 2.30 pm.

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  #724 (permalink)
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On BOBL, I do see a reverse head & shoulders with 125.56 as neck line.
Target is 126 in the case of an upward exit.
May be with the US figures at 2.30 pm.

Ok, many thanks!!!

Ciao a tutti

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Continuation doji or bottom ?

Market opened with an upward gap and shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers, making its HoD (143.99). Reactive Sellers pushed then the market down to 143.62 which was to be LoD. Reactive Buyers where at such level and session ended at 143.83.

At 143.82, which is to say closing level, POC is much lower than Thursday (144.34), which remained untouched : Sellers are in control of the market.


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Result is a very neat doji, which could be of continuation or of bottom. Shikou span rebounded on the candle line.
MA 20 is on support.


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Prices are climbing following cloud's upper hedge. Shikou Span is knocking at candle line.


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Prices end at MA 44 level and at the middle of the rising channel.

On the resistance side we have 143.96-99 (mid S1-PP, HoD, Tenkan Sen) then 144.11-18 (MA 23 and PP) and finally 144.48 (former HoD).
On the support side there is 143.62 (LoD) then 143.38-35 (SSB ad S2) and finally LoW (143.15).

There is the german PMI on the morning and some housing related US statistics at 4 pm Berlin time.

I would be strong seller below 143.60 to target the supporting oblique of the rising channel (and/or MA 50 at 143.07 or even lower BB at 142.74). I would be a cautious buyer above 144 for a quick and small profit and would sell if such level is unsuccessfully tested.

Good Night.

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  #726 (permalink)
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Rising wedge on SCHATZ

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On SCHATZ 4H graph, I traced a rising wedge (three points of contact on each oblique).
In the case of a downard exit, target is 110.335, which is lower BB for the 1 day TU.

I am therefore a keen seller below today's LoD (110.390) for the 110.340 target.

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  #727 (permalink)
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RISING WEDGE ON SHATZ

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Prices exit from below during the night session (i.e. with a vert small volume).
Target is 110.330 but I will wait a pullback tomorrow before entering short.
If the target is made without any pullback, too bas for me.

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  #728 (permalink)
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Another doji

Market opened roughly where it closed Tuesday and incentive Sellers entered into the market and pushed prices down, making the LoD (143.65) about 3 ticks above Tuesday's LoD. From there, reactive Buyers pushed the market up and HoD (144.07) was made by 3 pm. Market was then trendless and ended at the opening level, which is also the POC (143.86).

Such POC is some 10 ticks higher than Tuesday's. Market seems to be balanced between Buyers and Sellers.

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Result is another neat doji, with yesterday's MA 20 in support. Shikou Span is just above the candle line.
It is worth noting that BOBL and SCHATZ markets are much weaker with Shikou Span below the candle line.


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Prices are still climbing on cloud upper hedge. Shikou Span is almost below the candle line.
For the two other german futures, Shikou Span is below the candle line.


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MA 23 did a good job as resistance. Prices ended at MA 44 level.

Supports and resistances are almost unchanged from yesterday, only HoD is now increased at 144.07, which is also MA 23 level. On the support side, 143.62-65 is now made with two LoD's. Other levels ae the same.

IFO tomorrow, then a speach from Mario and some important US statistics, together with some 1st Quarter results from some big US companies : many reasons for the Bund market to move from the 143.62-144.07 range.

I may therefore be a keen sellers below 143.62 and a shy buyer above 144.07, and I may sell if this latter level is tested and does hold.

Good Night.

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  #729 (permalink)
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WHERE IS THE EXIT PLEASE ?

Market opened rougly where it closed on Wednesday and after the IFO release, market made its LoD (143.55).
At such level, reactive Buyers entered into the market which returned to the opening level but as there was no follow through, prices came back to LoD upon release of the US data.
As buying interest were still there, making a double bottom, I do suspect some short covering and prices rocketed to 144.17, a shade below weekly PP (144.18), making the HoD. At such level, reactive Sellers entered into the market which may end no far from MA 44 (143.91).

At 143.82, POC is almost same as the two previous days : market is balanced.

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Result is a candle with a small true corpse and two rather long shadows.
Shikou Span remains above the candle line and MA 20 is still on support and rising.
BOBL and SCHATZ are forming a doji long legs.

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Prices are now in the cloud and more important, Shikou Span is now below the candle line.

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MA 23 is doing a fantastic job as resistance as good as MA 20 D as support.

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On this 1 hour graph, I have traced a symetric broadening structure with 6 rotation points and what looks like a partial rotation. Would the exit be by above, target is 144.50 which is to say R1 (144.52).

On the one side, rather good 1st Quarter publications and some conforting economic news are making the Bund market weaker while the Russian boots' noises are creating a flight to safety. Market could therefore have violent moves depending on the newsflow from Ukraine.

On the resistance side, above 144.17 (HoD and PP) there is 144.48-53 (former HoD and R1).
On the support side, below the 143.55-65 area (3 x LoD, SSB and mid S2-S1) there is S2 at 143.35 and below LoW (143.12) which is also the symetric broadening target in the case of an exit by below.

I would not be surprised that prior the week-end, some operators are looking for some safety.

Good Night.

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  #730 (permalink)
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SCHATZ, target (almost) achieved.


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110.340 lowest made.

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