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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #711 (permalink)
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SNAKES & LADDERS

Market opened roughly where it closed on Friday and after IB was made, incentive Sellers gently pushed prices down and a first low was made at 143.42. Upon relase of CPI figure, first reaction was up and HoD (143.68) was made but it was very short lived reaction and market dropped and was at 143.01 (LoD) a little after 3 pm.

At the very beginning of Janet's speach, reactive Buyers entered into the market which ended at 143.50.

At 143.46, POC is about 10 ticks lower than Friday's. Volume is bigger than the one of the three previous days.

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Result is a hammer, almost a doji. Its lower shadow end is not far from MA 20D and Kijun Sen Daily.

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On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that SSB did a good job as support. Shikou Span remains above the candle line. Tenkan Sen crossed below Kijun Sen and prices do remain below these two indicators. Such crossing is usually a reverse trend signal (of the last week upward trend). We can also note that tomorrow, cloud thickness is almost nil, offering no support in the case of a downard move.

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On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 did a very good job as support and that MA 23 is just above prices at the closing.

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On the 1H TU, I drafted a downard channel. Prices ended near its resistance oblique, which is also MA 23.

As long as such MA 23 and Kijun Sen 4H (143.54) are above prices, I will have a bearish biais in my ID trading, to be confirmed if and when prices go again below weekly PP (143.30). I will be keener to buy above 143.68 (HoD) to target upper 4H BB (143.95) or even R1 (144.38).

On the resistance side, above Kijun Sen (143.54) there is HoD (143.68), then 143.86-94 (former HVN and mid PP-R1), 144.08 (HoY) and finally R1 (144.38).
On the support side, below PP (143.30) there is 143.08-00 (MA44, SSB and LoD) then 142.95-92 (MM 20 D, mid PP-S1, S1 itself (142.51).

I do not have a clear view on where the market wants to go so I will be even more cautious tomorrow than I use to be.

Good Night.

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2 MONTHS TU VIEW

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As it is the end of the month, here is a TU 2 months view (february + march).
I do see a small hammer, almost a doji, after a big green candle, which calls for a big red candle in order to form an evening star. Volume is rather low if compared to the previous candles.

Prices closing below 143.04 on a daily basis (the opening level of the two month candle but also not far from today's LoD) would be rather negative in my opinion on a medium term basis.

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MARKET HOLDS ITS BREATH


Market opened with a small opening gap and almost immediately incentive Sellers pushed prices down and a first low was made at 9.30 am (143.16). At such level reactive Buyers entered into the market and sent it back to the opening level. From there reactive Sellers sent prices down again and LoD (143.12) was reached upon release of the 4 pm Berlin time US data. Market may end not far from weekly PP (143.31).

The whole day could actually be analysed as oscillation around such value.
At 143.27, POC is almost at weekly PP, yesterday's POC (143.46) is virgin and Friday's one (143.61) is unflowered :
Sellers are still in control of the market.


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Result is a small red candle with a lower shadow. Today's range is included in Monday's.


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Shikou Span is knocking at candle line's door. SSB did again his good job as support. The cloud will get thicker tomorrow and during the second half of the week. I have the feeling that either prices go below 143.10 level tomorrow or not within this week.


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MA 44 is doing a fantastic job as support. For how long ? Market is stuck between MA 23 and MA 44. As prices are coming from above, in what could be seen as an horizontal flag, the logical next move should be an exit from below. In such case, target is 142.50, which is to say S1.


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On this 1H graph, I drafted a symetric triangle. In case of an exit by below, target is again 142.50. In the case of an exti by above, target is 143.80 (which is to say mid PP-R1).

On the resistance side, above HoD (143.41), there is 143.68 (former HoD) then 143.86-94 (former HVN and mid PP-R1), 144.08 (HoY) and finally R1 (144.37).
On the support side, we have 143.12-02 area (two LoD, MA 44 and SSB), then nothing much before S1 (142.52), and afterwards 142.10 (the horizontal support of the squared upward broadening structure.

I will be strong seller below 143.10 to target 142.50 and may cautiously buy abvove 143.41 to make a quick and small profit.

Good Evening.

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  #714 (permalink)
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MARS View Post
Market opened with a small opening gap and almost immediately incentive Sellers pushed prices down and a first low was made at 9.30 am (143.16). At such level reactive Buyers entered into the market and sent it back to the opening level. From there reactive Sellers sent prices down again and LoD (143.12) was reached upon release of the 4 pm Berlin time US data. Market may end not far from weekly PP (143.31).

The whole day could actually be analysed as oscillation around such value.
At 143.27, POC is almost at weekly PP, yesterday's POC (143.46) is virgin and Friday's one (143.61) is unflowered :
Sellers are still in control of the market.


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Result is a small red candle with a lower shadow. Today's range is included in Monday's.


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Shikou Span is knocking at candle line's door. SSB did again his good job as support. The cloud will get thicker tomorrow and during the second half of the week. I have the feeling that either prices go below 143.10 level tomorrow or not within this week.


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MA 44 is doing a fantastic job as support. For how long ? Market is stuck between MA 23 and MA 44. As prices are coming from above, in what could be seen as an horizontal flag, the logical next move should be an exit from below. In such case, target is 142.50, which is to say S1.


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On this 1H graph, I drafted a symetric triangle. In case of an exit by below, target is again 142.50. In the case of an exti by above, target is 143.80 (which is to say mid PP-R1).

On the resistance side, above HoD (143.41), there is 143.68 (former HoD) then 143.86-94 (former HVN and mid PP-R1), 144.08 (HoY) and finally R1 (144.37).
On the support side, we have 143.12-02 area (two LoD, MA 44 and SSB), then nothing much before S1 (142.52), and afterwards 142.10 (the horizontal support of the squared upward broadening structure.

I will be strong seller below 143.10 to target 142.50 and may cautiously buy abvove 143.41 to make a quick and small profit.

Good Evening.

Grazie e buona serata a te Mars

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  #715 (permalink)
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ANOTHER DOWN DAY

Market opened roughly where it closed yesterday and immediately incentive Sellers pushed the market down.
It was actually a directionnal day and LoD (142.72) was reached at the end of the cash session.
Market may end some 10 ticks higher.

At 143, POC is 25 tikcs lower than yersterday. While last Friday's POC is unflowered, Monday's and Tuesdays are virgin : Sellers are in control of the market. There is a selling tail between 143.10 and 143.24 and a HVN in the 142.94-06 area.

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Result is a red candle of reasonnable size, almost in loop belt with normal volume. Low end of candle's is touching the support oblique of the upward channel. Shikou Span is knocking at candle line's door. Tenkan Sen is above today's candle. In the case tomorow, with ECB speaking, the support oblique is broken, MA 50D, at 142.31, will likely act as a support.


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Shikou Span is below the candle line and prices are below the cloud. As expected, market took advantage of cloud thinness to go below.
Market is now in bearish mode in this TU.

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As a consequence, MA 44 gave up its support role and may now be a resistance. The attraction of the supporting horizontal line at 142.10 might be irresistible.

On the resistance side, SSB 143.00-07 is a first one then MA 44 (143.16), HoD (143.24), 143.40 (former HoD and Kijun Sen) 143.68 (former HoD), 143.97 (former HoD) and finally HoY (144.08).
On the support side below LoD (142.72) there is S1 (142.51) 142.22 and 142.10 (formers HoW) 141.96 (mid S1-S2) and fianlly MM 50D and low end of a former range (141.32).

The latter value is the target of the upward squared broadening structure, would the horizontal support (142.10) be broken.

Tomorrow, Mario will speak and market could go either to 142.10 and 141.30 or up again, depending what he may say regarding ECB tools to fight deflation.

Be cautious, there is lots of volatility ahead.

Good Night.

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MARIO STOPPED THE DOWN TREND

Market opened rougly where it closed Wednesday and immediately, incentive Sellers pushed the market down and a first low (142.60) was reached. Market traded then in a 142.59 - 142.80 range waiting for the BCE. Upon release of the bid rate, a new low (142.56) was achieved and upon release of US figures and during the beginning of Mario's press conference, Buyers and Sellers fought hard and the former had the advantage. Market rose gently and may end a shade below 143.

At 142.73, POC is about 30 ticks lower than yesterday and the three last POC's are virgin. Sellers are still in control of the market. There is a big HVN just below POC and a smaller one at 142.92. Volume is bigger than the previous days.


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Result is a hammer which lower shadow is touching cloud upper hedge. MA 20D is above prices, together with Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen while Shikou Span is rebounding on the candle line. Fast stochastics are at the bottom.
Such hammer would need a green candle tomorrow to become a rising star. It would then signal a reverse in the downard trend which is only stopped for the time being.


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On their rebound, prices stopped just below SSB . Tomorrow, SSB will be a bit higher (143.07) giving more room for the continuation of the consolidation (of the downard move). Tenkan Sen is below the prices, all other indicators are those of a bearish configuration.


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On the 4H graph, I traced a supporting oblique, linking the three last lows, forming therefore a squared upward triangle with the 144 double top. I also traced in grey an horizontal line at 143, a former support that could now be a resistance. It should be tested tomorrow. A failure to go above will send the market back to test again the 142.50 support. Going over such level with wolume would show the way up to the double top.

On the resistance side, above 142.99-07 (HoD - potential horizontal resistance and SSB), we may have the 142.20-28 area (MA 44, former HoD, Kijun and MA 23), with PP not far (143.30). Further above there are some HoD (143.40 and 143.68) and finally mid PP-R1 (143.83).
On the support side, below 142.49 (LoD and S1) we do have MM 50 D (142.36) and a couple of HoW (142.22 and 142.10) and finally mid S1-S2 (141.96).

Important US data tomorrow which may will decide upon which look the weekly candle will lhave.

I will be cautiously bullish above 143.00, looking for a quick profit and keen seller below 142.50. Scalp will be my answer in between.

Good Evening.

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STRONG UPWARD MOVE WITH THE US

Market opened where it closed and incentive Sellers pushed the market down to 142.67. At such level reactive Buyers entered into the market which traded then in a 143.67-85 range, waiting for the US employment related figures.

Upon their release, market rocketed in heavy volume and ended a shade below HoD, (143,71), making more than 100 ticks whithin the session.

At 143.27, POC is only a shade higher than Thursday but it does not mean much. Value is very extended and volume is bigger than the previous days.


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Result is a big green candle, almost bare head, which engulfs the four previous ones, forming a rising star with the two previous ones. Shikou Span rebounds on the candle line. Prices are above Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and MA 20.
I do not see why upper BB (144.00) shall not be reached early next week and a new rotation completed within the squared upward triangle.


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Shikou Span is knocking at candle line door, cloud upper hedge stopped the rise and prices are still in the cloud.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are about to cross. Market will be in bullish mode in this TU if and when Shikou Span will be above the candle line and prices above the cloud. In the case of a big retracement Monday, SSB and Kijun X Tenkan point ( 143.07) shall be a strong support.


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On the 4h graph, I indicated some fibo values in the case of a retracement. At 143.26 and almost 38% retracement, MA 44 is an interesting point.


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The weekly candle is a doji hanged which would lose its bearish meaning if a candle closes above its top (i.e. Friday's HoD).

Weekly PP is at 143.25 and as prices are above, it does make R1 (144) the logical target. It is worth noting that such value is also upper daily BB and not for from HoY (144.08).

On the resistance side, above HoD (143.70), there is the 143.98 - 08 area (former HoD, HoY, horizontal resistance of the squared upward triangle, R1) then 144.22 (mid R1-R2) and R2 itself (144.40).
On the support side, 143.20-28 area is the first serious one (MA44, Kijun Sen 30', former HVN, weekly PP). Below there is the 143.07.00 area (SSB, former resistance, mid PP - S1) then S1 itself (142.82) and ifnally LoD (142.62).

I am expecting the 143.96 - 144.08 resistance area to be tested early next week but not necessearely on Monday.
If it does, I will be seller on such level
I would not be suprised if the market retraces part of the rise from 142.62 to 143.71.
if it does on moderate volume, I will look for a long position.

Have a nice week-end.

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SHY BUYERS

Market opened where it closed Friday evening and after exploring whether higher prices would attract Buyers, incentive Sellers pushed prices down and LoD was reached (143.34) was reached by 11 am. From there reactive Buyers entered into the market and by 4 pm HoD (143.79) was reached. Session may end 15 ticks lower.

At 143.66, POC is considerably higher than Friday. Market leaves behind an unflowered POC (Thursday's) and a virgin one (Friday's) : Buyers are still in control of the market.


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Result is a hung man above a big green candle. Volume is much lower than Friday. Such candle is a warning and calls for a big red candle tomorrow in order to make an evening star. Going above HoD would mean invalidation of such warning and likely horizontal resistance test.


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Shikou Span is on the verge to go above the candle line. All other ICHIMOKU indicators are in a bullish mode.


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Retracement of the Friday's rise is about 38% and MA 44 was not even touched.

Another post will follow later.

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FOLLOWING POST

On the resistance side, above HoD (143.79) there is 143.98-08 area (former HoD, HoW, horizontal resistance, R1 and HoY), then mid R1-R2 (144.22) and R2 (144.40).

On the support side below the 143.34-23 area (LoD, MM44, PP) there is the 143.07-00 area (SSB and former resistance) then S1 (142.82) and finally Friday's LoD (142.62).

Above today's HoD I would be buyer and target the 144.98-08 level. Not in a selling mood for the time being.

Good Night.

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A TRENDLESS DAY


Market opeend rouglhy where it closed Monday and after the IB was made, incentive Buyers pushed the market up and found some reactive Sellers at 143.69 which was to be HoD. From there the market gently decreased and reached 143.36, not far from MA 44, where reactive Buyers entered into the market. Such point was to be LoD.
During the night session, Buyers were still there and session may end not far from 143.60.

At 143.52, POC is about 15 ticks lower than Monday's POC, which value was quoted today. Volume of the day is on the low side.

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Result is a top spin.

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Shikou Span is almost above the candle line. All ICHIMOKU indicators are on the verge of being bullish in this TU.

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MA 44 did a good job as support.

I still have the feeling that squared upward tirangle horizontal resistance will be tested before the end of the week, likly with FOMC minutes release at 8 pm Berlin time. On the other hand, the cloud is very thin tomorrow and would offer almost no support in the case of a strong selling pressure.

On the support side below 143.34-32 (2 x LoD and MA 44) there is PP (143.23) then 143.13-10 (SSB and Kijun Sen), 143.00, a former resistance S1 (142.81) and Friday's LoD (142.62).
On the resistance side, above HoD (143.69) there is another HoD (143.79 then 143.79-08 area (HoD, HoW, Horizontal R, R1, HoY) then 144.22 (mid R1-R2) and finally 144.40 R2.

I am expecting a trendless day tomorrow and much volatility upon release of the FOMC minutes at 8 pm.

Good Evening.

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