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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #701 (permalink)
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JANET GIVES THE TREND

Market opened roughly where it closed Tuesday, shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers and after IB was made, prices gently decreased in moderate volume. Upon FOMC minutes were released, at 7 pm Berlin time, prices dramatically dropped in very thin volume. In one hour and a half, 600 ticks were lost.

At 142.96, POC is substancially lower than Tuesday and there is an HVN at such level. Value is concentrated on the upper part of the range, giving the day a "p" shape.

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Result is a big red candle with a small lower shadow. Lower end of the shadow is in contact with the support oblique of the upward channel.


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Prices are below the cloud, shikou span is below the candle line, market is in a bearish mode in the TU.
SSB (142.78) is a resistance in the case of a retracement on Thursday.


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Reactive Buyers entered into the night session at the support oblique level.

In the case of a retracement, 142.65 (Kijun Sen Daily) is a first possible resistance, then 142.78 (SSB), 14289/90 (MM44, Value's low end) then 142.95 (HVN). Above there is Kijun Sen (143.16) and HoD (143.25).
On the support side, below LoD (142.32), there are two LoD (142.12 et 07), 141.81 (LoW) and finally S2 (141.30).

On thursday, the US figures will be analized at the light of Janet's comments during her press conference.

I am expecting part of the range from 142.88 to 142.32 to be visited on Thursday. Whether Wednesday LoD will hold and how the cash market will behave is to be seen.

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  #702 (permalink)
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REVERSE OR CONTINUATION ?

Market opened rougly where it closed, shily explored whether higher prices would attract Buyers and looked down for a support which was found at 142.10 by 3 pm. At such level some reactive Buyers made the session ending at 142.40.

At 142.28, POC is much lower than yesterday and there is a selling tail from 142.45 to 142.65 and an HVN in 142.20-28 area.


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Candle of the day is a hammer. MA 20 and Kijun sen Daily are above the whole candle.



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Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen could be resistance levels in the case of a retracement tomorrow.



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On the 4H graph, I traced a squared upward broadening strcture. We can see a hammer.

From 142.10, there could be another rotation towards the resistance oblique, targetting above 144, a partial rotation, stopping for instance at MA 44 level (142.90) and going back to the horizontal support or the support break. In such case, target is 141.30, which is to say S1.

On the resistance side, we may have 142.65 (HoD and Kijun Sen Daily), then 142.87/90 (SSB/MA44), 143.02 (Kijun Sen), 143.19 (Weekly PP) and 143.28 (HoD).

On the support side, below 142.10/07 (LoD/LoD), there is 141.81 (LoW) and S1 (141.30).

No statistics tomorrow but it does not necessary mean a quiet day.

Good Night.

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  #703 (permalink)
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MARKET DID NOT DARE BREAKING THE OBLIQUE SUPPORT


Market opened almost where it closed on Thursday and was trendless in a very tiny range all day long.

At, 142.46, POC is a shade higher than Thursday, volume is much lower than the previous days.

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Result is a small green candle. Kijun Sen D and MA 20 D remain above prices.


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Tenkan Sen is on support, all other indicators are bearish in the TU.


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Fast stochastic is climbing, giving some room for the downard trend resuming. MA 44 is flatening.

On a weekly basis, candle of the day is red and forms some sort of congestion with the two previous candles.
Weekly PP is at 142.67. Prices ended below. As long as it ramain so, target is S1 at 142.09.

On the resistance side, above HoD (142.59) there is Thursday HoD, Weekly PP and Kijun Sen D (142.65/69) then SSB and MA 44 (142.87/91) and finally 143.24/35 (former HoD and R1).
On the support side below LoD (142.32) there is 142.08 (HoW and S1, 141.81/77 (LoW and high end of former range) and 141.35/25 (Low end of former range and S1).

On Monday, I may be very basic : buying above Friday's HoD and selling below Friday's LoD.


Last edited by MARS; March 22nd, 2014 at 12:24 PM. Reason: Grammatical mistake
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  #704 (permalink)
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A DIRECTION AT LAST

Market opened with a small downard gap and upon release of the French PMI figure, made its LoD (142.22). At such level reactive Buyers entered into the market and closed the opening gap with Friday's 5.30 pm closing.

Upon release of the US PMI, Buyers agreesively entered into the market and prices rocketed to 143.18 during the cours of the afternoon in a directionnal market. About two hours before closing of the night session, prices were a shade below HoD and the may remain there untill the end of the night session.

At 142.44, POC is surprinsingly low and there is an HVN in the 142.24-48 area.


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Result is a big green candle, almost a loop belt, which lower end is at support oblique level. Upper BB (143.72) seems a logical target which could be reached within the week.


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Tenkan Sen and Kijun Se are crossing. It is usually a sign that the market is revearsing its trend. Prices are above these two items, inside the cloud and Shikou Span is still below the candle line. Market is still in bearish mode in this TU.


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Prices are a shade above MA 44 and fast stochastics are dramatically rising. MA 23 is now on support.
I do see a bottom in towers, with two big candles (one red and one green) and some tiny candles in between. It is a sign that a bottom has been made.

Would the market continue its upward move tomorrow, on the resistance side, we do have, above HoD (143.18), R1 (143.34) which is a target as well. Above there is 143.46/55 (HoD and HoW) then mid R1-R2 (143.73) and finally 143.97 (HoY). it is to be noted that upper daily BB is also mid R1-R2.

Would the market consolidate tomorrow, first support may be MA 44 (142.95) then SSB (142.87), Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen and PP (142.68), and finally LoD (142.22). Below there is 142.08 (HoW and S1) but I wold be very surprised if the market would go so low tomorrow.

Good Evening.

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  #705 (permalink)
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THE MARKET DOES NOT KNOW WHERE TO GO

Market opened rouglhy where it closed yesterday and traded in a tiny 143.04 - 32 range all day to end in the middel of such range.

At 145.21, POC is much higher than yesterday. The value has been accepted by the market. Yesterday's POC is untounched.


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Result is almost a shooting star, to be confirmed by a red candle tomorrow in order to make an evening star.

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Tenkan Sen is just below prices but Shikou Span did not manage to go above the candle line.
Support offered by the cloud is almost nil tomorrow.

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It seems that prices are on the verge to make a partial rotation. In such case next move is a return to the horizontal support level (142.10) and if broken, target is 141.30.
If today's HoD is overcommed, prices may go as high as the resistance oblique (over 144.00).

On the resistance side, over HoD and R1 (142.32/34) we have a former HoD and HoW (143.46/55) then mid R1-R2 (142.73) and finally HoY (143.97).
On the support there is LoD, SSB and MA 44 (143.04/00) then Kijun Sen and Weekly PP (142.70/68) a former LoD (142.22) and HoW / S1 (142.08), which is to say the horizontal support level mentionned hereabove.

If HoD is not overcommed, and furthermore if opening level does not hold, I will adopt a negative biais in my ID trading.

Good Night.

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  #706 (permalink)
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UP IS THE TREND

Market opened roughly where it closed Tuesday and almost immediately, incentive Buyers were at the helm. A first high was made at 143.46 by mid morning and HoD (143.60) was reached by mid-afternoon. Night session ended 8 ticks lower.

At 143.40 POC is higher than yesterday and both Monday and Tuesday POC are untouched. There is a buying tail from LoD (143.16) to 143.30.


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Result is a green candle with a small upper shadow. Upper BB (143.76) is getting closer.


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Prices are above the cloud, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, Shikou Span is above the candle line. Market is in a bullish mode in the TU.


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MA 44 is in support and almost flat. Fast stochastics are at the ceiling. A downturn could happen anytime.

On the resistance side, above HoD (143.60) we may have 143.73 (mid R1-R2) then 143.97 (HoY) and finally 144.18 (R2).
On the support side, there is 143.35 (R1) then LoD (143.16), 143.00-05 (mid R1-R2, SSB, MA 44, former LoD), PP (142.68) and far below 142.22 (former LoD).

In TU 1H, I do see the Bund future contract in an upward channel. As long as prices are within such structure, it is not a good idea to sell.

Tomorrow afternoon there will be the release of two important US figures that may or may not change the trend.
After four up days, I am not expecting a fifth upward day. I may therefore be reluctant to buy but will not sell before prices do exit the upward channel visible in TU 1 hour.

Good Night.

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  #707 (permalink)
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A FIFTH UP DAY

Market opened rouglhy where it closed and drifted horizontally in a tiny range untill the last US data was released.
Buyers pushed the market upward 20 ticks but at 143.92, which is to say 5 ticks lower than HoY (143.97), reactive Sellers appeared and market may end about 15 ticks below HoD.

At 143.70, POC is substancially higher than yesterday. The three last POC are untouched. Buyers are still in control.
There is an HVN at 143.66

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Result is a green candle with a small upper shadow which touches upper BB, making the target annonced earlier this week.
I traced an horizontal resistance, the possible double top a shade below 144.
Fast stochastics are at the ceiling.


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At 143.52, Tenkan Sen would give a first warning in the case of a trend reversing.


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On the 4H graph as well, I traced the horizontal line linking the two tops (so far).
Fast stochastics are at the ceiling.

In the case the market continues its upward trend tomorrow, above 143.92 (HoD) there is 143.97 (HoY) then 144.18 (R2) and 144.88 (mid R2-R3).
In the case of a retracement, HVN (143.66) could be a first support, then LoD (143.46), R1 (143.34) a former LoD (143.16) and below Kijun Sen, a former LoD and MA 44 (143.06-01) level.

Tomorrow, I would not be surprised to see the 143.92-97 area tested a second time. In the case of a market failure to go above, reactive Sellers will act accordingly.
If such level is defended and gives up, we may see a desperate short covering at hefty prices prior to the week-end

Some US statistics may bring some volatility during the afternoon.

Take care, there is much volatiliy ahead as I do not see the market staying there very long.

Good Evening.


Last edited by MARS; March 27th, 2014 at 04:00 PM. Reason: deleting one cheer
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  #708 (permalink)
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SHOOTING STAR IN TU 2H

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On this 2H graph, you can see a nice shooting star. As long as prices do remain below its upper shadow, the most likely move is a return on the lower BB, around 143.06 this evening.
Such level is 50% retracement of the rise from 142.21 to 143.92 and is also where MA 44, Kijun Sen and SSB are.

Too much for a coincidence in my opinion.

Good Night.

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DOUBLE TOP

Market opened rouglhy where it closed Thursday and just after 9 am, incentive Buyers agressively pushed prices up, rising above HoY. At 144.08 they met with determined reactive Sellers whom sent prices back to the opening level. In the afternoon, as it was obvious that end of the session would not be above HoY, Sellers came back and LoD (143.43) was reached. Some reactive Buyers entered then into the market and prices ended 20 ticks above LoD.

At 143.61, POC is lower than the previous day, for the first time since the beginning of the week. There is an HVN in the 143.86-94 area.


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Result is almost a long legs doji which forms, with the previous candle, a top in pliers and a double top with the one made on March 14th. As forecasted Thursday evening, 143.97 has been tested andd market failure to stay above prompted reactive Sellers action.


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Tenkan Sen is now above prices and Kijun Sen is on support. Cloud is getting thinner early next week, offering almost no resistance in the case of a prices drop.


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MA 23 is on support and MA44 is rising with a low slope.

If 143.97-144.08 resitance area holds, prices shall go back to the horizontal support (142.10) and due to the partial rotation, will likely go below, the first target of the upward squared broadening structure being in such case 141.20
If the abovementionned resistance area gives up, it may become a support and target would then be at least 144.38 (R1) and in the case of an exit over the resistance oblique of the graphic structure, prices may go as high as above 146. Market could also drift on Monday within Friday's range.

On a weekly basis, candle is green and forms a congestion with the three previous ones, alternatively red and green. PP is at 143.31, market ended above Friady, which make R1 (144.38) the likely target as long as prices do remain above PP.

Would the market resume its upward trend on Monday, resistances are 143.86-94 (HVN), then 144.08 (HoY) and 144.38 (R1).
On the support side there is LoD (143.41) then PP (143.30) the 143.02-07 area (MA44 and SSB) and fnally S1 (142.90).

Euro zone CPI flash estimate at 11 am could give the trend tomorrow or maybe the newsflow from Ukraine this week-end.

As long as prices do remain below the double top, I will have a bearish biais in my ID trading, specially if the opening level on Monday does not hold.

Have a nice Sunday.

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weekly forecast.....FGBL


...an excellent instrument you are playing with always fun to trade the FGBL

it seems that the last week needed more $ for the price to stay up there,
the rotation seems inevitable for the upcoming week,
....unless some new money jumps in and starts buying!

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