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Bund Future 16/11
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Bund Future 16/11

  #61 (permalink)
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This is my first post on the forum.

Here is my view on the German Bund.

On a week basis, the candle stick is a bearish ungulfing with good volume.

On a daygraph, we can see the big red candle stick. The Chikou span (in white discoutinuous line on the graph) has gone under the cloud friday, which is bearish. The white horizontal line can be seen as the neck line of a somehow double top, which gives a target at 141.50 about.

On a 4 hours graph, we can see, on thursay, the refusal on the 143.60 neck line, which can also be seen as the horizontal resistance of a triangle and the subsequent break of the supporting oblique (in green) of such triangle. Such break gives a target of 141.

As the stochastics are very low, I am expecting monday the market to make a pullback on the green oblik, about 142.60 - 142.70 and then to resume the downtrend.

Pivot point on a week basis is at 142.94 and POC of last week is surprinsingly at the same level.

As long as prices stay below such level the down trend is the more likely and tops shall be sold.

Have a nice trading week.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg   Bund Future 16/11-bund.jpg  
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  #62 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-21 - 2013-01-25

@MARS : Many Thanks, finally somebody else posts his own opinion.

Stock markets have been very positive, maybe money starts to flow out of Treasuries into Stock markets. The season favors declining bond prices. Though the return of the "Fiscal Cliff" may soon change this.

A down week, an outside bar after an inside bar. Volume rose slightly from last week.

The four weeks of 5-day volume profiles shows resistance levels only.

Four levels of Resistance
• 142.87
• 142.93(2x) This week's PoC.
• 143.40.

The daily volume profile shows a PoC of 142.50. Next levels down are 141.75 and 141.54.

In the daily chart, the market is back into the down trend which started 2012-12-10.

The daily volume profile shows that most volume was traded in the lower part of the range, it has a b-shape.

Combining all price levels since 2013-01-11 15:00 into one volume profile shows a slightly unbalanced profile: a node (selling) at the top and heavy trading around 143.35 and 142.90.

The high volume traded in the last hours of Friday favors a direct continuation of the down move while the b-shape favors an up move.

Next week a plethora of reports is due. Most important are the FOMC announcement of Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday. Monday - Wednesday sees 2-, 5- and 7-Yr Note auctions.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.01.2013-15.57.20.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.01.2013-15.27.38.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.01.2013-15.50.02.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.01.2013-20.39.11.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-27.01.2013-20.45.22.png  
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  #63 (permalink)
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FGBL07 View Post
@MARS : Many Thanks, finally somebody else posts his own opinion.

Stock markets have been very positive, maybe money starts to flow out of Treasuries into Stock markets. The season favors declining bond prices. Though the return of the "Fiscal Cliff" may soon change this.

A down week, an outside bar after an inside bar. Volume rose slightly from last week.

The four weeks of 5-day volume profiles shows resistance levels only.

Four levels of Resistance
• 142.87
• 142.93(2x) This week's PoC.
• 143.40.

The daily volume profile shows a PoC of 142.50. Next levels down are 141.75 and 141.54.

In the daily chart, the market is back into the down trend which started 2012-12-10.

The daily volume profile shows that most volume was traded in the lower part of the range, it has a b-shape.

Combining all price levels since 2013-01-11 15:00 into one volume profile shows a slightly unbalanced profile: a node (selling) at the top and heavy trading around 143.35 and 142.90.

The high volume traded in the last hours of Friday favors a direct continuation of the down move while the b-shape favors an up move.

Next week a plethora of reports is due. Most important are the FOMC announcement of Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday. Monday - Wednesday sees 2-, 5- and 7-Yr Note auctions.


MARS View Post
This is my first post on the forum.

Here is my view on the German Bund.

On a week basis, the candle stick is a bearish ungulfing with good volume.

On a daygraph, we can see the big red candle stick. The Chikou span (in white discoutinuous line on the graph) has gone under the cloud friday, which is bearish. The white horizontal line can be seen as the neck line of a somehow double top, which gives a target at 141.50 about.

On a 4 hours graph, we can see, on thursay, the refusal on the 143.60 neck line, which can also be seen as the horizontal resistance of a triangle and the subsequent break of the supporting oblique (in green) of such triangle. Such break gives a target of 141.

As the stochastics are very low, I am expecting monday the market to make a pullback on the green oblik, about 142.60 - 142.70 and then to resume the downtrend.

Pivot point on a week basis is at 142.94 and POC of last week is surprinsingly at the same level.

As long as prices stay below such level the down trend is the more likely and tops shall be sold.

Have a nice trading week.


I do not want to make laugh anybody so I just thank you both.

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  #64 (permalink)
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Today, after opening at 142.21, the future contract climbed to close the 17h30 gap at 142.50 (versus the 142.60/70 area forecasted) and then resumed its downtrend, accelerating after the durable goods statistics and ending its fall for today at 141.61 (versus 141.50 forecasted as the first target down).

As can be seen on the daily graph, the red candle is somehow of the spinning top type and smaller than the previous one, the low shade being in contact with the lower bollinger band. No sign however that the downtrend might end tomorrow.

At 17h30, POC for the day is at 142.30, suprinsingly high so I am expecting that tomorrow the market may try to get closer to such level, having in mind that the next support level is at 141 (low of october 18h), which is also the target of the tirangle which support oblique was broken friday.

Have a nice evening.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg  
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  #65 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-28

Average volume and range, compared to the last 5 days. Compared to the long-term average, range is on the high side. A down day.

The first hour shows surprisingly high volume and an up move. Market was pushed up the level of Friday's PoC (142.50) and then started to drop on diminishing volume. The very positive 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) Durable Goods report then drove it down to its LoD at 15:00 CET (=09:00 EST). A little correction up followed.

Market dropped well below the last swing low of 142.05. Next swing low: 141.15.

The intraday chart looks a bit like last Thursday's.

The 5-day volume profile still shows resistance levels only.

• 142.50 = last 5-days PoC = Last Friday's daily PoC
• 142.70
• 142.86
• 143.10.

The daily volume profile shows PoCs at 141.54 and 140.60.

Today's volume profile has two pronounced peaks: one around 142.40 and one around 141.80 = today's PoC.

There are only two reports scheduled for tomorrow at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST), so market will be more on its own than today.

There is no sign visible that the down move will stop but after three strong down days a break may be due.

So maybe market will continue down or we may see an inside day, some trading between the two peaks of the daily volume profile?

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-28.01.2013-22.07.42.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-28.01.2013-22.06.50.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-28.01.2013-22.15.47.png  
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  #66 (permalink)
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End of down trend ?

Today, as expected, the market tried to get closer from yesterday's POC (142.27 paid while POC was at 142.31 yesterday) and then traded sideways the open level. to close at 17h30 higher than yesterday's low, with therefore a lack of direction and convicition from the operators.

The result, as can be seen on the dayli graph, is a reverse hammer, located at the bottom a series of 3 red candlles and near the lower bollinger band, a structure that could mean the end of the down trend for the time being, to be confirmed by a green candle tomorrow.

Would the future BUND trade tomorrow above 141.85, which is the higher end of the true corpse of the candle, and also S2 weekly, such level could be a convenient stop for long positions for ID or even short term purpose.

Tomorrow, on top of the US statistics, an aunction of 30 years bonds will take place. Bidding period ends at 11.30 am, Frankfurt time. The market may therefore move in relation which such aunction.

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Bund Future 16/11-bund-jour.jpg  

Last edited by MARS; January 29th, 2013 at 01:55 PM.
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  #67 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-29

Average volume, but well below average range. An inside down day.

Market was pushed up on average volume till about 14:00 CET(=08:00 EST), when it started to drop. The negative Consumer Report at 16:00 CET (=10:00 EST) caused some volatility. Initially Bunds started to rise and stock markets to drop. But then stock markets shook off the report and rose again while the Bunds resumed to drop.

It is not so much that the treasuries look weak but that the stock markets look very strong.

The levels for the 5-day volume profiles did not change:
• 142.50
• 142.70
• 142.90
• 143.10.

The daily volume profile shows that the valley between yesterday's PoC and VAH has been filled. Today's PoC is 141.88, a few ticks up from yesterday's.

Next levels down (PoCs) are still 141.54 and 140.60.

Tomorrow at 20:15 CET (=14:15 EST) the FED will announce the results of their meeting. On such days the US markets usually trade in a tight range till that time of day. Then some volatile moves may follow.

In this case there will also be a lot of volatility in the Bunds, for about an hour after the announcement.

During the day the result of the 30-Yr Bund at 11:30 CET may be influential. At 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) the US GDP report is released.

The market looks weak to me and most likely will continue to drop, but it may not do so tomorrow. If the FED announcement contains any surprises, then this may change the market.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-29.01.2013-22.08.03.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-29.01.2013-22.07.00.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-29.01.2013-22.12.02.png  
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  #68 (permalink)
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Hammer

Very hectic day, I actually stayed apart and watched the market.

Before the auction's result and the US statistics nothing much happened and when they were released, we saw in ut 1h an almost doji with long, long legs that were probably harmfull and showed that the market did not know where to go next.

Final result is a closing at 22h (141.68) not very different from the opening (141.65) and from last day closing at
22h (141.73). POC is however lower (141.63 vs 141.93).

Candle of the day, at 22h pm, is an almost doji hammer which could mark the stop of the down trend. The fast stochastics, at the bottom are in accordance with such hypothesis.

The Bund future may be at the 5th rotation of a down broadening at right angle, with 3 contacts on the support oblique (in green) and 5 on the horizontal resistance. The logic of the structure is to go up to the resistance and, if broken, target would be 146. A very thin Ichimoku cloud will not oppose much resistance to such move.

For tomorrow, I am therefore expecting an upward move. If the market goes upper than today"s top (142) and stays above, it will be a very positive sign to enter into long positions till at least the end of the week.

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  #69 (permalink)
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Bund Future 2013-01-29

One note first about my data: I use DTN IQFeed and their continuous contract BD#. I back-adjusted this contract manually. Today I had a discussion with another twitterer who uses also DTN IQFeed but their continuous back-adjusted contract BD#C. There is a distinct difference in the levels shown by the BD#C contract and my manually back-adjusted contract. Not in the front-month but in the back months.

I decided to switch to the BD#C contract. Whether the levels are better/more precise or so I don't know. It will be much less work for me to switch contracts, in fact none at all.

Slightly above average volume, slightly below average range. An almost neutral day, made a new low, not much net-gain, and closed almost at yesterday's close. Today's PoC of 141.65 is below yesterday's.

Market traded on average volume in a 30-tick range making up-down swings. First the 14:15 CET (08:15 EST) ADP report and then the 14:30 CET (=08:30 EST) GDP report changed this. The very negative GDP figure had the market shoot up to its HoD and then drop to its LoD. It then crept up almost to its open. Around 16:30, above 141.50 a lot of stop losses seem to have been triggered taking the market up to 141.67 and then letting it drop back.

The 20:15 CET (=14:15 EST) FOMC announcement did not cause much volatility. Volume was high for this time of day, but no great swings.

The 5-day volume profiles show still resistance only.

• 142.50
• 142.87
• 143.10
• 143.29.

The daily volume profile shows that volume is concentrated below 141.70, the VAH.

In the last days, any move up has been met with heavy selling or no demand. That 141.70 level may be interesting tomorrow: a break above it could trigger an up move.

Stock markets did not like the news today and finished in the red.

Attached Thumbnails
Bund Future 16/11-snag-30.01.2013-22.09.42.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-30.01.2013-22.08.47.png   Bund Future 16/11-snag-30.01.2013-22.14.13.png  
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Mid day fear & greed.


The Bund market went up this morning but we have an opening gap below our feet.

Will we close it or not ? Answer soon.

If we go behind the opening with the US figures, the gap should be closed.

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