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Market opened roughly where it closed. after the IB was made, initiative Buyers sent the market to 143.96 (HoD), prior to ZEW release. After such event, reactive Sellers sent market down to 143.43 (LoD) a shade lower than opening level. Reactive Buyers were there and market ended at 143.82, which is to say POC level.
At 143.83, POC is higher than the two previous days and at about the same level than Thursday. There is an HVN in the 143.69-77 area.
Day candle is green and swalows the two previous ones. Volume is also bigger.
MA 20 is on support.
As market is in a tiny range, 4H ICHIMOKU graph does not give valuable information.
On the 4H graph, I drafted a squared angled rising triangle.
Exit in the case of an upward move is 144.60 but 2014 top (144.54) or even R2 (144.43) would be good enough.
Exit in the case of an downard move is 142.70 but 142.92 (Kijun Sen 1 day) would be fine.
HoD ( 143.96) is an obvious resistance, being triangle's horizontal resistance then 144.06 and 09, two former HoD, then R2 (144.43); 144.54 (2014 top) and finally 145.09 (2013 top).
On the support side, HVN (143.69-77) could be one then 143.42 (LoD), 142.33 (former LoD + MA 20D), 143.15 (S1), 143.09 (LoW) and finally 142.92 (upper hedge of a range).
Tomorrow there is a 10 years Bund aunction (result after 11 pm.), US data at 2.30 pm and last but not least, FOMC minutes at 8 pm.
The exit from the triangle visible in TU 4H shall give the trend.
Take care, I have the feeling the next days will be very volatile
Market opened rouglhy where it closed on Tuesday, at 143.81 and after trading sideways untill mid-morning, incentive Buyers strongly entered into the market, prior to the ZEW data release and prices rose to 144.19, just after ZEW was know to everybody......
Market was then trendless with a spike at 144.27, which was to be HoD, just after the US data was released at 2.30 pm Berlin time. From there reactive Sellers took control of the market and made price retreating to 143.80.
After FOMC minutes where released, more selling happened, LoD was made (143.72). Session ended a shade higher, three ticks lower than the opening level.
At 143.84, POC is at same level than Tuesday and there is no HVN.
On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 and MA 23 are still on support. Today was a false exit from the triangle.
Above HoD (144.27) resistances are R2 (144.43), 2014 top (144.54) and 2013 top (145.09).
On the support side, below LoD (143.72) there could be MA 44 (143.65) then 143.42 (former LoD and MA 20D), then 144.33 (gap upper hedge and former LoD) and finally 143.09 (LoW).
With the tombstone doji and the false exit from the triangle, I am bearish on the Bund market and shall give a negative biais to my ID trading as long as prices do remain below today's HoD, specially if opening level does not hold.
Market opened roughly where it closed and after IB was made, intiative Buyers sent the market upward but about 4 ticks below Wednesday HoD, Buyers got shy. There was no follow through.
Slowly, reactive Sellers entered into the market and when it was obvious that a double top was created, Sellers begun being much more agressive. They first sent back the market to opening level and upon the US statistics release, down to MM 20D level and former LoD at 143.42. Market ended about 10 ticks higher.
At 143.49, POC is much lower than the two previous days. There is some sort of HVN in the 143.59-43 area.
Candle is red with an upper shadow. Its bottom is on MA 20D. It is worth noting that volume assocated to such candle is bigger than those of previous days. The candle almost swallows the two previous ones.
As market is drifting horizontally, ICHIMOKU 4H graph is not very useful. However, Shikou Span is now below the candle line , SSB, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are above prices.
On the 4H graph, I traced a squared upward broadening formation which horizontal support line is at 143.40.
Going below such support line gives 142.90 as a first target.
As fast stochastics are at the bottom, we could also see a rebound on the support line and eventually another rotation.
On the support side, below 143.40 (LoD and MA 20D) there is 143.33 (former LoD and upper end of the opening gap of february 13th), then 143.09 (LoW) and finally 142.92 (upper end of a former range and 1 day Kijun Sen.
On the resistance side, we may have 57-64 area (HVN and MA 44 and 23), then 143.80 (Kijun Sen and SSB), then 144.24/27 (the double top 2 x HoD), 144.43 (R2) and finally 144.54 (2014 top).
Only a US data at 4 pm. but it does not mean that tomorrow will be a quiet day.
I will take one week leave and therefore will resume posting on Sunday March 2nd.
I hope one of the readers will keep this file alive in the meantime.
On this 4H graph of SCHATZ, I traced a rising squared triangle and the futures exit such triangle by below. MA 44 and 23 are above prices.
Target is 110.500 and it shall be valid as long as prices do remain below the supporting oblique and before they reach APEX level.
I sold today such bond at 110.580 and I am ready to hold such position over the week-end as we may see some horizontal drift tomorrow or even a continuation of the pullback.
Market opened Friday with a small downward gap which was filled then operators waited for the european CPI.
Upon its release at 11 am, prices heaviliy dropped and LoD (144.18) was achieved at 4pm.
At such level, reactive Buyers appeared and marrket ended at 144.58.
At 144.38, POC is considerably lower than Thursday (145.10) and there are two HVN, a small one in the 145.00/16 area (Friday's IB) and the second one, much bigger, at POC level.
Result is a red candle with a rather long lower shadow ending at Kijun Sen level. Volume is bigger than the previous days.
On the 4H ICHIMOKU graph, we can see that prices are above the cloud and Kijun Sen but below Tenkan Sen and that Shiikou Span is above the candle line.
On the 4H graph, we can see that MA 44 and 23 are on support. I drafted an grey horizontal line as it seems that the 144.15/20 level, a former resistance, now became a support.
Below such level, there is a former LoD (144.90) and LoW (143.99)
On the resistance side, the higher end of Friday's value (144.64) could be a first one, then 145.20 (HoD) and 145.33 (HoW and 2014 top).
I would not be surprised to see prices exploring the valley between the two HVN's.
Several european and US statistics, together with the newsflows from Ukraine may bring some volatility on Monday.
The 10 year T Notes opening at midnight, with a big upward gap, shall make the Bund future opening with a wide upward gap as well.
Market opened with an upward gap and as lower prices did not attract sellers, incentive Buyers took the lead and pushed the market up to 145.23. From such level reactive Sellers sent prices back to 144.83, which was to be LoD.
From there, reactive Buyers came and market ended at 145.25 after hitting 145.40 about 6 pm.
At 145.03, POC is much higher than Friday and there is almost no HVN, only more volume traded in the 145.01-09 area.
Result is a small green candle with lower volume than Friday. There is a bearish discrepency between prices and fast stochastics.
Tenkan Sen is at 144.84 while Kijun Sen is at 144.64.
Also the bearish discrepency in 4H. MM 23 is at 144.70 while MA 44 is at 144.24
On the resistance side, over HoD (145.40), there is mid R1-R2 (145.79) then R2 itself (146.24)
On the support side below 145.22 (high end of value) there is the 145.01-09 area then 144.84 (Tenkan Sen and LoD), 144.64 (Kijun Sen) and finally 144.24 (Kijun Sen Daily and MA 44).
I think that Bund market is very vulnerable would the Ukraine situation stabilize.
I would therefore have a bearish biais in my trading would the opening level do not hold.
Market opened at 145.00, with a wide downard gap and after trying, unsuccessfully to fill it, buyers gave up and incentive Sellers pushed prices down to 144.63, which was to be LoD, where they met reactive Buyers. Market was then trendless between 144.99 and 144.63 and may end not far from POC (143.75).
POC is lower than yersterday and there is no HVN. There is some sort of selling tail between 144.93 and HoD.
Result is a small red candle, almost a spin top. Cumulated volume of March and June contracts is about the same than yesterday (position's roll is under way).
Ichimoku 4H grpah does not bring much valuable information.
On the 4H graph, I drafted a rising wedge (3 points of contact on the support oblique but only two on the resistance one). As fast stochastics are rather low, we could eventually see another rotation.
On the support side we may have, below LoD (144.43), MA 44 (144.33) Kijun Sen Daily (144.25) and the upper end of a former range (144.25).
On the resistance side, above the selling tail (144.93-99) some former HoD (145.25 and 145.40) then mid R1-R2 (145.79).
Some important US statistics may give the trend tomorrow, with Ukraine newsflows as a joker.
Missing your posts...